This was the most heartbreaking loss of the season for Northwestern. Winning the turnover battle 5-0 and still losing on a game-winning field goal is devastating. Wrigley Field may just be a cursed gridiron
for the ‘Cats, but nevertheless they need to look ahead to next week. What I’m going to do is look at this past week like always. First, here are the numbers behind the two-point loss.
The Numbers
Looking strictly at PFF grades and Preston Stone was the fifth-highest graded quarterback in the Big Ten this week. He had his second highest offensive grade of the season at 83.6 while he tied his highest passing grade of 81.5. Stone finished the day throwing for 184 yards on 13-of-28 passing with no touchdowns or interceptions. He did end up as the highest graded Wildcat as he didn’t make any mistakes. For the third time this season, Stone had no PFF turnover worthy plays. Also, I thought he threw the ball well even though he completed just 13 passes.
Caleb Komolafe had not only his lowest PFF grade of the season (61.1), but he also only rushed for 31 yards, his lowest total all year. While he did score a touchdown, it was still shocking to see how Michigan was able to stop him. Joseph Himon II also struggled more than usual in the run game as he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, his lowest mark this season.
Hunter Welcing was the story of the day. He tied his career high with four catches and set a new career high with 81 receiving yards. Welcing was also the second highest graded player on offense for the ‘Cats per PFF, posting a 76.5 grade. Griffin Wilde caught just two passes, but he totaled 51 yards receiving. The offensive line also did a good job protecting Stone in this one as they allowed just one sack against a talented Michigan defense.
Yes, Northwestern forced five turnovers, but the loss compounds that. Anyways, let’s dive into some film.
The Good
There wasn’t anything super flashy, nor was there anything too jarring. What did stand out is a connection between Stone and Welcing that took a leap forward this week.
Hunting season
I keep repeating this, but Welcing accounted for just slightly under a third of Northwestern’s offensive yardage with his 81 receiving yards. While it was only on four receptions, he was targeted six times and consistently was getting open.
This was Welcing’s first grab of the game. Three of his four receptions went for 20+ yards. Firstly, Stone does a fantastic job of rolling out. He delivers a rocket of a throw on the run to Welcing, who finds wide open space in the Michigan zone for a big gain. Great awareness.
Welcing’s second catch (and longest of the day) looked like he was a wide receiver. Stone delivered a bullet that hit Welcing in stride as he beat his defender off a great stop-and-go route before picking up 36 yards with the extra running. The pocket was fantastic as the offensive line continues its strong and impressive season.
This was Welcing’s last catch of the day, and it came at a critical time. Not too long after this play, Northwestern took its first lead of the day. Anyways, back to the play. Stone sells the play-action fake well, even with the struggles NU had up to that point on the ground. Michigan runs a zone defense, which allows Welcing to get into open space as Stone layers the throw to his tight end. Career day for Welcing as he did a fantastic job of getting open and being a reliable target for his quarterback.
The deep end
Stone’s deep ball is deadly when he’s on his game. While not every play in this section was a perfect throw, there was no better way to group it together as it all meshes together.
This was Wilde’s first catch of the game. While this pass is more-so medium than deep, it showcases that Wilde can get open. While it is a zone defense and the deep defensive back was playing deeper than maybe he should have, Wilde still gets to his spot and Stone puts it right in the chest. Also, he faced no pressure thanks to the offensive line’s blocking.
Yes, this pass was incomplete. It should have been caught though. That’s beside the point. This throw from Stone might be his best of the year. He put the ball in a spot where only Wilde could catch it. Unfortunately, it went right through his hands. It would have been about a 30-40 yard gain too if he came down with the ball.
Wilde’s second catch came on a bit of an underthrown ball from Stone, yet it still found its way into the hands of No. 17. With pressure in his face as he fired away, Stone uncorked the ball down the middle of the field as Wilde adjusted his body to go up and make the contested grab with a defender right in his face.
This throw to Hayden Eligon II was beautiful. While maybe there’s a bit of an argument that it was underthrown, if Stone put any more power on the ball, it more than likely would have been in the hands of a Michigan defender. Stone fires down the sideline, Eligon makes the adjustment and goes up to make the grab as he falls down.
The Bad
Play calling has been an issue all season. Game management is one thing, but play calling has been questionable at times when it’s just too important. This is especially true in the red zone.
Red zone? More like dead zone
This is a recurring theme. Northwestern has time and time again resorted to kicking field goals right near the goal line because of poor execution and play calling in close proximity to scoring touchdowns.
Third-and-goal from the 16-yard line. While calling a play in this scenario can be tough, scheming to have the only player open be just five yards up the field isn’t great. At this point in the game, a field goal isn’t bad. While NU did ultimately put three on the board, this is the perfect time to run a draw play or a screen pass to try and break something and either A) score a touchdown, B) get into a manageable fourth-and-goal situation, or C) make it an easier field goal kick.
This one was less so about the play calling and more so about the decision making. While Stone did have a solid showing, this play is one he’d likely want to have back. Two plays prior, Stone threw a pass targeting a wide-open Welcing on the right side of the end zone, but it was batted down at the line by Jaishawn Barham. On this play here, if Stone had seen Welcing, he had a touchdown. Yes, the ball may have been batted down again, but still it’s better than trying to target a guy (Wilde) with a defender right behind him and others in the close vicinity.
This play could have been much better. While it is third-and-9, this play should be viewed as one of two needed to gain nine yards. Get a chunk play of about five on the third down, then decide whether or not to go for it on fourth. The play calling in the red zone is either too conservative, or it just has the receivers all running routes without much margin of error. The red zone scheme has been something of an issue all season, and this game it was no different.
Final Thoughts
This is just a crushing loss all around. Northwestern is still one game out of bowl eligibility, and it had the chance to win for the first time in the friendly confines. Play calling on offense remains an issue that keeps popping up, but Stone looked good as the ‘Cats remain in the state of Illinois for the rest of the regular season. Seeing what Welcing did was promising for the next two games, but it feels like Wilde needs to get more involved despite him having 51 receiving yards.
