The NBA regular season is over, which means award discourse season before the playoffs start is in full swing. Some awards, like MVP and DPOY, are all but announced, with overwhelming favorites expected to win. However, the race for Rookie of the Year is a much different story. Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel are the two likely candidates, and the conversation surrounding them has gotten to a point where engaging with someone of the opposite pick is not just frustrating but outright unenjoyable.
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Flagg’s side, a lot of the argument revolves around his counting stats and the awesome games that he had this year. The situation he was drafted into was not good, and he was incredible despite the excuses he could have made. For Knueppel, the pros are a lot different. Those who pull for him cite three-point shooting and impact on winning as the main pillars of his case. This inherently forces advanced numbers to be thrown around, which pushes the conversation off track.
We are not awarding an Excel sheet. We are giving this trophy to a player. Numbers should be used to supplement what you’re seeing. If you are seeking out numbers in search of an opinion, your process is flawed. Basketball requires context, and just having data points lacks sufficient context. I’m sure Knueppel’s advanced numbers look better; Charlotte was a much better team than Dallas. Knueppel was a part of winning, but they also got a healthy Lamelo Ball, who played 72 games for the second time in his career. Yes, Knueppel provided much-needed spacing and ball movement, but they went 3-14 without Brandon Miller. Winning requires a collection of moving pieces, and the Mavericks’ moving pieces didn’t free Cooper Flagg like Charlotte’s freed Knueppel; they jammed him into a corner. So why, for an award given to barely-20-year-olds (or not even 20 in Flagg’s case), are we factoring in winning and advanced analytics?
Kon Knueppel is a great player. I loved him out of college, and he exceeded even my expectations for this year. He is an elite three-point shooter, and leading the league in threes made as a rookie is a historic accomplishment. His year should be celebrated. But, he was also placed into a situation with a perfect coach and point guard to generate the looks he gets. Cooper Flagg played point guard for the first time in his life in game one of his NBA career. Would anyone in the history of the world excel at something if they did it for the first time at the highest level of competition?
Flagg led Knueppel in every box score stat except the three-point related categories, and is the only teenager in NBA history to score 50 points in a game. He was top 5 in every major statistic, both total and per game, among all rookies. He became the only rookie not named Michael Jordan to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. The only months he did not average 20 points (I am rounding 19.9 up in March) were October and November, when the team was surrounded by unprecedented outside noise, and he was playing out of position. Flagg did not just end the season well; he has been a great player since mid-November.
Both players are deserving. Had Knueppel been in last year’s class, he would have run away with the award. But he is a rookie this season, and if you watch 100 minutes of Flagg and 100 minutes of Knueppel, you quickly realize they are not on the same level. Unfortunately, the conversation has become back-and-forth posts on X of databallr screenshots. Simply put, we have lost our way. Basketball is a nuanced game. Numbers never tell the whole story. I think it’s time we shelf the advanced analytics for a bit and get back to watching games.
