Cowboys roundtable discussion: Chip Kelly, playoff odds, and Quinnen Williams

SB Nation

Every week, we gather to discuss the latest news about the Dallas Cowboys and seek our writer’s perspective on each headline. Welcome back to the roundtable. This week we have David Howman, Sean Martin,

and Jess Haynie.

How should Dallas handle Chip Kelly’s tempo offense?

Mike: Limiting explosive plays is the first order of business. Stress the Raiders protection up front without sacrificing coverage, their offensive line has some good pieces but generally their pass blocking is middle tier and ranks 17th in pass blocking win rate. If the defense starts from there, then that up-tempo offense will suddenly find itself going three-and-out quickly and the time-of-possession becomes a massive headache for the Raiders.

Sean: We all know by now the Cowboys are getting help on defense going into this game, and most of it is in the front seven. Hopefully the extra bodies to rotate in and out can be a match for tempo offense. It may even play to the Cowboys advantage to stick with a few base coverage calls when the Raiders are going quick, to cut down on the blown assignments they’ve had.

Howman: The Raiders offense has been about as bad as the Cowboys defense this year, so this matchup figures to be the equivalent of two trash cans slamming into each other repeatedly. That said, I’m really curious to see how the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson change that dynamic.

Jess: It’s a little scary, because a key to defending against tempo is fast recognition and communication. Not only have the Cowboys been bad about that already, but now you add new pieces at key spots. But Vegas’ offense has been terrible this year, so not sure that playing fast is doing them any favors. The extra rest from the bye week will definitely help, as part of tempo is testing your opponent’s conditioning.

Given the Cowboys have an 8% chance of making the playoffs, do you have confidence that the Cowboys can accomplish it in the second half of the season?

Mike: The ultimate optimist would say 10, but we’re after realistic analysis here not pure, unwavering optimism. The team has to stack real results from here to Week 18, and they’re about to get into a heavy portion of the schedule. Offensively, things look good, could be a little a cleaner than how they started the season at sustaining drives and red-zone efficiency. Defensively, the run defense is bad, way too many chunk plays are allowed in the secondary, and the pressure rate needs increasing. The wild card though is both team health and trades. Getting key defenders back should stabilize weak areas of the defense as well as tackling problems. Then there’s the two huge additions on defense the team acquired before the bye. Factor all that in and let’s give it a 4/10 confidence score right now.

Sean: Very minimal confidence. The big picture team build under Schottenheimer has not been lost yet though, not at all. Winning at any point with all of these young players getting reps is a welcome part of this picture. Even if the Cowboys rattle off some late season wins but don’t get the help they need to make the playoffs, they won’t be for naught.

Howman: I’m actually really confident. There are several paper tigers in the NFC right now, and the Eagles have a really tough remaining schedule. All the Cowboys need is for average defense to go along with their explosive offense, and I think they made enough moves at the deadline to deliver just that.

Jess: After Week 10, Dallas is only two games back from the last wild card spot (Packers). That’s plenty of room for interesting things to happen. The Bears are in sixth place at 6-3 and barely beat the Giants on Sunday. The odds don’t take into account late-season surges and dives, a few of which tend to happen every year.

Did Dallas pay the right price in the Quinnen Williams trade (Mazi Smith, 2026 2nd, 2027 1st) given the team’s competitive window and cap outlook?

Mike: Quinnen Williams is a top-five interior disruptor and exactly the profile Dallas has lacked this year. He collapses pockets on his own, holds up versus double teams, and lets defense’s play lighter boxes without having to over commit to the run. That ripples everywhere from third-down stops, red-zone defense, and cleaner edges for the rush.

The cost of Mazi Smith plus a 2026 second and a 2027 first is basically two first-round picks in value. You’re punting on cheap starter upside and future flexibility for an immediate ceiling raise. If Dallas expects to live in January the next two seasons, that bet is defensible. Premium interior pressure is the most playoff-translatable asset on defense.

Sean: Honestly, finding any team willing to give Mazi Smith a fresh start was a plus in this trade. The Cowboys have done more work in just this season at defensive tackle than previous years combined, seemingly making it clear Smith isn’t a fit anymore. Keeping him on the roster to cloud the depth chart just over pride in a first round pick would have been a mistake. Instead, he’s part of the compensation to land a much more dynamic player the Cowboys have wanted for a while. Well done to the front office here.

Howman: It’s a bit rich, and I don’t know if I’d have personally pulled that trigger, but it’s hard to deny they got an incredible player in exchange. Quinnen Williams is the Micah Parsons of defensive tackles in that he does so much for your defense. Of course, EDGEs are more valuable than interior defensive linemen, but the point returns.

Jess: The right price depends on the results. People decried the Herschel Walker trade until they saw that it laid the foundation for three Super Bowls. We can have feelings now about what the Cowboys gave up, but definitive right/wrong statements are meaningless until we see the impact Williams has in Dallas.