Last week ATS: 7-8 (4-4 National, 3-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 81-77 (33-40 National, 48-37 B1G)
So far this year it has felt like we’ll have one big weekend a month and the rest of the time we are either a game above or below .500. It’s hard to get mad about since our season record is 81-77 entering this week, it just stings when you look at all the missed opportunities to make even more gains.
At least last year it felt like we did our best work in November and in the playoff/bowl season, so hopefully we can replicate that success.
National Games
No. 9 Vanderbilt v. No. 20 Texas (-2.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Arch Manning actually didn’t play too bad last week, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns before suffering a concussion in the 45-38 overtime win at Mississippi State. If Manning isn’t able to play this week, the Longhorns will turn to Troy transfer Matthew Caldwell, who has attempted 11 passes this season.
The injury to Manning comes at a terrible time, since Texas closes out the regular season with three of their last four games against teams currently ranked in the top-10.
I’m still not impressed with Vanderbilt. Their win over Missouri last week only happened because quarterback Beau Pribula was injured in the second half. Had Pribula not been injured, I think the Tigers would have ended up beating the Commodores. Diego Pavia threw for just 129 yards and ran for a touchdown in the victory, which hopefully will slow down talk about Pavia being a Heisman contender.
The defense of the Longhorns puzzles Pavia and keeps the slight playoff hopes of Texas alive.
Texas 23, Vanderbilt 14
No. 18 Oklahoma v. No. 14 Tennessee (-3.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Last season Josh Heupel took Tennessee to Norman and beat the Sooners 25-15. Now Heupel will be looking for another win against his alma mater when Oklahoma comes to Knoxville in what feels like a College Football Playoff elimination game.
If the Volunteers are able to win on Saturday night they have a great shot at finishing the regular season with just two losses as their final three games are against New Mexico State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.
For a team that was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country, Ole Miss carved up Oklahoma last week. If the Rebels can roll up 430 yards on the Sooners, just imagine what Tennessee can do. If Oklahoma isn’t able to keep the Volunteers off the scoreboard, it could be a long night for the Sooners.
Quarterback John Mateer hasn’t looked right after rushing back to the field after hand surgery. I just don’t see Oklahoma being able to keep pace on the road.
Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 21
No. 17 Cincinnati v. No. 24 Utah (-8.5) – 10:15 p.m. ET – ESPN
One of college football’s surprises has been Brendan Sorsby and Cincinnati, who enter this week with a 7-1 record. The only loss for the Bearcats this season came in the season opener against Nebraska when they were nipped by the Cornhuskers 20-17.
Sorsby has tossed 20 touchdowns and just one pick this year, while Ohio State transfer Evan Pryor is leading Cincinnati in rushing this season.
Even though Utah had to start a freshman quarterback last week, the Utes had no trouble beating Colorado, heading into halftime with a 43-0 lead on the Buffaloes in the 53-7 win. Byrd Ficklin threw for 140 yards and two scores, and added 151 yards rushing and a touchdown in the blowout.
It is not known yet if Ficklin will start again or if Devon Dampier will be healthy enough to return as the starter. No matter who starts for Utah, I think Cincinnati has what it takes to spring the upset. Salt Lake City is a tough place to play, but Utah isn’t unbeatable at home, as evidenced by Texas Tech hitting the road to beat the Utes earlier this season.
Cincinnati 30, Utah 27
B1G Games
Penn State v. No. 1 Ohio State (-20.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
This week feels a bit odd since usually we are fretting heading into a game against Penn State. Instead, victory this week feels like a formality because of everything the Nittany Lions are going through. Penn State fired James Franklin after the loss to Northwestern.
In that game the Nittany Lions also lost quarterback Drew Allar for the rest of the season to injury, leaving Lewis Center native Ethan Grunkemeyer to take the snaps. Penn State fought hard a couple weeks ago against Iowa before falling late at Iowa, losing for by a point for the second straight game.
Last time out Ohio State didn’t break a sweat in a 34-0 win over Wisconsin, marking the second shutout of the season for the Buckeye defense. Julian Sayin threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, finding Carnell Tate twice.
A week off has given Ohio State a chance to recharge their batteries for the stretch run as they look to secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and a first round bye in the College Football Playoff.
Even with Allar at the helm, Penn State’s offense wasn’t really anything to be concerned about, especially considering how Allar routinely shrunk in big games. Not only does Sayin continues his march to the Heisman Trophy, the Buckeye defense registers another game where their opponent fails to reach double figures on the scoreboard.
Ohio State 33, Penn State 7
No. 2 Indiana (-21.5) v. Maryland – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
This feels like it could be a bit of a trap game for Indiana. The Hoosiers are coming off a 56-6 win over UCLA last week, and next week they head to State College to take on Penn State. I’m certainly not putting Indiana on upset alert, I just think we could get a bit of a sleepy performance against a Maryland team with some pop.
Curt Cignetti could opt for more ground work on Saturday since former Terrapin running back Roman Hemby will be returning to College Park.
Maryland turned back into a pumpkin when the calendar flipped to October. The Terrapins lost all three games in the month by a combined 10 points. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington has been solid, throwing for 11 touchdowns and just three picks this year.
I think we’ll get a spirited effort from Maryland off their bye week, which will allow them to stay around two touchdowns of one of the best teams in the country.
Indiana 37, Maryland 21
No. 23 USC (-6.5) v. Nebraska – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
The good news for Nebraska is at least they are making a habit of winning games decided by a touchdown or less. The Cornhuskers beat Northwestern 28-21 last week, making it two straight wins in one score games. Unfortunately for Nebraska is a 24-6 loss to Minnesota was sandwiched in between those victories.
The loss to the Golden Gophers looks even worse after seeing what happened to Minnesota at Iowa last week. Even though Matt Rhule will say otherwise, I wonder if he already is planning a return to his alma mater to be the next head coach at Penn State.
USC has had a week to digest their 34-24 loss to Notre Dame. The Trojans were on their way to driving down the field to tie the Fighting Irish before an idiotic wide receiver reverse pass ended up in a turnover that erased any momentum USC had in the fourth quarter. I still like what I’ve seen from the Trojans this year, especially with the connection of quarterback Jordan Maiava and wide receiver Makai Lemon.
Patrick Mahomes cosplayer Dylan Raiola isn’t good enough to keep up Maiava and the USC offense.
USC 35, Nebraska 23
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 5 Georgia (-7.5) v. Florida – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Georgia 30, Florida 17
No. 13 Texas Tech (-7.5) v. Kansas State – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Texas Tech 38, Kansas State 34
No. 15 Virginia (-4.5) v. Cal – 3:45 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Virginia 28, Cal 20
South Carolina v. No. 7 Ole Miss (-12.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Ole Miss 37, South Carolina 17
No. 8 Georgia Tech (-5.5) v. N.C. State – 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Georgia Tech 27, N.C. State 24
B1G
Rutgers v. Illinois (-12.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – NBC
Illinois 34, Rutgers 24
Michigan State v. Minnesota (-3.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Minnesota 24, Michigan State 17
Purdue v. No. 21 Michigan (-21.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Michigan 38, Purdue 14
