The top of Washington’s starting rotation was solidified with the recent 4-year, $47 million extension handed to ace Cade Cavalli. Outside of that, however, the pitching staff is littered with question marks going into an uncertain 2027 offseason.
Andrew Alvarez emerged as a high-floor option after being promoted to the starting rotation midway through the season, but his lack of experience keeps him from being a surefire piece moving forward. The signings of righties Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas
last offseason fell flat, and trading southpaw Foster Griffin at the deadline weakened the rotation further.
The looming Major League Baseball CBA negotiations make the 2027 season outlook a complete mystery, but free agency, in some form, will still exist. With top prospects Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana expected to debut in the coming years, one free-agent move that would benefit both the present and future would be adding a veteran workhorse to the rotation.
Looking at the surface numbers, Kevin Gausman’s 2026 was far from a success. He finished the year with a 4.51 ERA with the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs, and he posted his highest WHIP since 2019. That said, the 35-year-old can be counted on for innings.
Gausman has thrown at least 170 innings in each of the last six seasons, and has made 30 or more starts in every complete season going back to his time with the Baltimore Orioles in 2016. Beyond that, he posted an ERA ranging from the high-2.00s to the mid-3.00s in the previous five seasons before his down year in 2026.
His underlying metrics also give hope to a bounce back in 2027, and contain patterns that the Nats desperately need. Namely, he posted an 86th percentile BB%, one aspect of the 2026 Washington rotation that was severely lacking. He also maintained an 88th percentile Chase% and 70th percentile Whiff%, giving him the favorable combination of plus stuff and plus command. Gausman’s FIP and xFIP were similar to where they were in 2025.
Gausman’s last time as a free agent came back in 2021, when he inked a 5-year, $110 million deal with Toronto. This time around, he should still command a decent-sized salary, but the long-term commitment seen in his last contract will likely not be present.
Toronto is projected to be a major contender to re-acquire Gausman in the offseason, so the Nats will still be forced to shell out a decent chunk of salary for the right-hander. If there was ever a time to invest in starting pitching, now would be that time. The 2026 Nationals fell short of the playoffs, but many young pieces, mostly on the offensive side, proved worthy of being in the franchise’s future plans.
If the Nats can build even an average rotation around Cavalli, the team’s supposed rebuild could be accelerated. Buying in on an arm who has shown to be a reliable starter for nearly a decade would be a fantastic starting point, and Gausman fits that bill as well as just about anyone.
