Coming off the Michigan Wolverines’ last bye week, we looked at each Big Ten team’s shot at making the College Football Playoff. Now, we’re much further into the season and most teams have been eliminated
with few still having a chance. Today, we’ll evaluate our original predictions, see how we did, and re-rank the teams.
Before
“It’s not happening”
- No 18 – UCLA Bruins
- No. 17 – Purdue Boilermakers’
“Less than 1% chance”
- No. 16 – Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- No. 15 – Northwestern Wildcats
- No. 14 – Wisconsin Badgers
- No. 13 – Minnesota Golden Gophers
“Extremely Unlikely”
- No. 12 – Michigan State Spartans
- No. 11 – Maryland Terrapins
- No. 10 – Iowa Hawkeyes
“Must rebound after a Top-25 loss”
- No. 9 – Washington Huskies
- No. 8 – USC Trojans
- No. 7 – Nebraska Cornhuskers
- No. 6 – Illinois Fighting Illini
- No. 5 – Michigan Wolverines
- No. 4 – Penn State Nittany Lions
“The favorites”
- No. 3 – Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 1 – Oregon Ducks
What we got wrong
Looking back, I’m actually pretty happy about the performance from this list. There’s only one major red flag, and it’s sitting at No. 4. I don’t think anyone anticipated the monumental drop off that happened from Penn State. Instead of rebounding from that loss to Oregon, Penn State lost the next week to UCLA, and then again to Northwestern, and then every game since. James Franklin got fired, quarterback Drew Allar got hurt and is out for the year, and the team consistently underperformed their preseason hype.
There’s some re-arranging to be done throughout the whole board, and the most obvious is USC. A win over Michigan at the Coliseum skyrocketed its odds of making the playoffs, now is one of a handful of teams that still have a shot at claiming a CFP spot. The only other ranking I wish I could have back is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Their three losses have been by a combined 10 points, and two were to Indiana and Oregon. If there is a three-loss Big Ten team that squeaks in, I think Iowa has the best shot.
Now, let’s re-rank the teams remaining that could still hypothetically find a way into the playoff in chaos scenarios with just three weeks to go in the regular season.
Less than 1% chance
- No. 6 – Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa still has a slim chance of making the playoffs. The committee very clearly thought higher of the Hawkeyes then most, and now, their impressive resume against the Big Ten’s elite is complete. They were a walk-off field goal away from knocking off Oregon and held Indiana deep into the fourth quarter earlier this season. I suspect the committee finds a way to keep them in the Top-25 despite the loss. Iowa goes to USC this weekend for a game that could define their season. Iowa must go 3-0 the rest of the way to even have a shot.
Have a huge hurdle ahead
- No. 5 – Michigan Wolverines
- No. 4- USC Trojans
Michigan has a weaker schedule this season, and thus, a poor resume. The Wolverines’ best win is probably the 24-7 win over Washington, and they just lost at Wisconsin in a game where the Badgers’ punter was the leader in passing yards for them. If the Wolverines had beaten USC, they would have had a case to be in with two losses to Oklahoma and Ohio State. Instead, they need to win their last three games, two on the road against scrappy Northwestern and Maryland teams, and the ultimate finale against Ohio State. If they accomplish that, there is no way they aren’t in the playoffs.
We just spoke about from the Iowa perspective, but USC has two really tough tests ahead of them. The Trojans beat Michigan soundly, but they still have to go to Oregon after facing the Hawkeyes this week, and then play a much improved UCLA team. Things get really interesting for them if they drop one of those three, especially if it is Oregon. In that scenario, their three losses came at Illinois (an upper-echelon Big Ten team), at Notre Dame (a likely CFP team), and at Oregon (a likely CFP team). At the same time, they’d have wins over Michigan and Iowa at home, two teams the committee liked last week. Among the end of the season chaos, they could still sneak in and would have a better shot than Michigan at doing so.
Greater than 50% chance they’re in
- No. 3 – Oregon Ducks
Originally, the Ducks came in as the top team on this list after the win at Penn State. At the time, it was maybe the best win in the conference. But then, they lost to the Indiana Hoosiers a week later at home and Iowa nearly caught them at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.
The Ducks do a lot of things really well. They’re running the football with efficiency and have a top defense in the country. Very quickly, Dan Lanning has transformed this program into a very Big Ten-looking team. It’s impressive, but they still have two tests ahead — USC and Washington. The Cascade Clash is also played in Seattle in the final week, and Washington will surely do everything they can to play spoiler in that game. The Huskies lead the all-time series there and are 32-23-4 at home.
One close loss, and Oregon likely still hangs in with a resume of two good wins, but anything other than that and the Ducks could be in jeopardy. They control their own destiny, which is where every team wants to be with only three weeks left.
Would be a shock if they weren’t
- No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 1 – Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana actually has only two games remaining — against Wisconsin and at Purdue — which is why they are my No. 1 team. A loss is highly unlikely, and losing both would be a statistical anomaly. The Hoosiers have a 53-point win over Illinois, one of the most impressive wins in the country by beating Oregon in Eugene, and just survived in Happy Valley with a Heisman moment from quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The committee already gave the Hoosiers the No. 2 ranking, ahead of SEC-favorite Texas A&M, and there is a world Indiana winds up the No. 1 team in the CFP.
But it’s also almost a guarantee Ohio State gets the chance to repeat as national champions. The Buckeyes have a hurdle ahead of them, and that’s the game at Michigan. A much worse Wolverine team beat the Buckeyes in Columbus last year.
The Game could actually mean less to Ohio State than it does to Michigan. In two weeks, we could be saying it’s the difference between the Wolverines being in or out as they look to win five straight. For the Buckeyes, their fate could already be sealed as an 11-0, No. 1 team in the country. At that point, they’re playing for pride and beating Michigan for the first time in what seems like forever. That’s essentially where they were a season ago when the Wolverines beat them. I get it, that’s all narrative and the game is played on the field where Ohio State will likely be two-score favorite or better, but it could be a fascinating end to the regular season for both sides.
