Jason La Canfora is in a very small group of journalists who sit at the tip of the NFL news cycle spear. Along with Adam Schefter and 1 or 2 others, if these guys are unavailable, a ridiculously high percentage of NFL breaking news comes through him, usually via X (Twitter).
So, when I’m alerted that La Canfora did an exclusive piece for the Canadian website Casino.ca, focused on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (and Baker Mayfield & Lamar Jackson), I sit up and take notice.
For the piece, La
Canfora discussed the 3 field generals with a wide range of NFL folks from scouts, to executives to general managers. While there’s no “hidden truth” any of them have that predicts the future, it does come with some solid legitimacy since these are smart, successful people paid to be smart and successful when it comes to NFL quarterbacks.
Right out of the gate, one of them kicks Stroud when he’s down.
An advance scout who does a lot of work in the AFC South told La Canfora, regarding CJ Stroud’s playoff performance v New England, “Houston wins that game if Davis Mills starts”.
It’s hard to know for sure if Mills would have won that game due to a variety of factors that we’ll never see play out. Does Vrabel dial up a different defense based on Mills vs Stroud? Are there 1 or more Patriot defenders who have a banner game due to matching up better against Mills style than Strouds? Does the Houston O-Line respond worse to Mills that Stroud? Is the stage too big for Mills the same way many feel it may have been too big for Stroud? Certainly a lot to crunch through on that one…
Another interesting tidbit:
It stands to reason that at least one of them [Jackson, Mayfield, Stroud] won’t be back with their current team by 2027, and possibly more. Front office executives around the NFL are watching closely to see if they might be able to land one of these accomplished passers next season, as supply never meets demand with the most important position in all of professional sports.
It’s hard to argue the possibility that Stroud is no longer in H-Town if this season doesn’t bear better results than last. Especially if the fault lands at C.J.’s cleats. But it also shows the value of all 3 signal callers – if any was “trash” other teams wouldn’t be watching, hoping, praying for a chance to grab 1 of them should they land in the unemployment line after the 2026 season.
Here’s where La Canfora focuses in on Stroud:
Stroud, also a first-round pick, is three years into his career, they have a fifth-year option on him and they could apply franchise tags after that. The Texans were never going to make a real push to sign him this year after some dramatic declines from his rookie season, and general manager Nick Caserio is a product of Bill Belichick in New England – even Tom Brady took less to be a part of that dynasty and there was no dynasty without Brady.
“Nick is no pushover,” another general manager told me this offseason. “Stroud is going to have to earn it.”
The notion that Caserio and the Texans have to give Stroud a big paycheck at the end of this year isn’t necessarily rooted in fact. The option and tags could buy them time to get Stroud onboard and/or replaced.
La Canfora’s hot take on how this plays out:
Prediction: Stroud heads into 2027 without a new deal
There are 17 games in the 2026 Houston Texans schedule – and hopefully, at least 3 more after those. If they win the last 3-4, Stroud will likely get paid. If not, La Canfora may seem prophetic.
A lot of folks familiar with Stroud’s days at Ohio State were somewhat shocked at his early, elite-adjacent performances in the NFL. Most of those same folks are buying the current Stroud as the guy they knew all along who couldn’t get it done.
On the flipside, Stroud does hold the Rose Bowl record for most passing touchdowns in a game – in a stadium that holds 100k+ people. Hard to think of a college-level game that could feel bigger than 100,000+ screaming fans within 200 yards of you at all times.
Personally, I think Stroud gets it done this year and we’re all looking back saying “remember when so many people didn’t believe in him?” But, I also thought Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt were going to be the best DE tandem in the NFL for the better part of a decade.
In reference to the AFC South scout’s quote above, if the scout works for the Glitter Kitties or the Baby Horses, the opinion is immediately sus. If employed by the Not-The-Oilers, it’s almost impossible to take seriously.
What do you think?
