4. UCLA
Predicted Starting Lineup
Donovan Dent, Senior, 20.4 ppg/2.3 rpg/6.4 apg/1.4 spg at New Mexico
Look for Mick Cronin to pick up the pace this year, because his prize transfer is best as a road runner in the open floor. Dent shot
40% from three but is selective of when he will let it fly. What he really wants to do and create havoc, either in the open floor or in the half court. He has great passing instincts and an advanced collection of floaters and runners to score over and around centers.
Skyy Clark, Senior, 8.5 ppg/2.8 rpg/2.7 apg/1.3 spg
Our old buddy Skyy has finally found a home in Los Angeles and will look to improve upon a solid first season for the Bruins. Clark is a solid shooter and secondary ballhandler who took pride in being a pestering presence on the perimeter last year, he fits nicely next to their new superstar.
Jamar Brown, Senior, 17.0 ppg/7.4 rpg/1.2 apg at University of Missouri-Kansas City
Brown is an under the radar signing coming from a team that went 4-12 in the Summit League but expect him to be a solid contributor. He gives serious Jacob Grandison vibes, in that he is a knockdown catch and shoot player who also rebounds well for his size and will make the right play.
Eric Dailey, Junior, 11.4 ppg/4.0 rpg/1.4 apg
Dailey is the player most poised to take a leap for Cronin. He is a 6-foot-8 southpaw who has flashed shooting potential and off the bounce game, as well as being an athletic and rugged defender. If he can put it together with consistency, an All-Big Ten team is not out of the question.
Tyler Bilodeau, Senior, 13.5 ppg/4.6rpg/1.5 apg
Bilodeau is undersized as a center but can make teams pay at the other end with an ability to both shoot the three (40%) and attack a lumbering center on a close out. Against the size they will face in the Big Ten, they might slide Bilodeau to the four, Dailey to the three and start either Michigan State flameout Xavier Booker or University of San Diego transfer Steven Jamerson, but this is their strongest offensive lineup.
Why Illinois Beats Them
I imagine Mick Cronin wishes he had been able to hold onto Aday Mara. Mara was raw and didn’t have the endurance to play long minutes, but their interior defense and rebounding are the only holes in an otherwise very solid team. Jamerson was nothing special at a lower level, and while Xavier Booker is incredibly athletic and long, he seems to fashion himself as more of a guard than a big man, preferring to float on the outside.
Why They Beat Illinois
The team fits really well around Donovan Dent. They will be aggressive defensively, look to run, and spread the floor around Dent on the other end. Mick Cronin teams aren’t known for offensive explosivity, but this one could be an exception.
X-Factor
X is the X-Factor. Xavier Booker was a 5-star recruit to Michigan State. He has the size and athleticism of a lottery pick, but the basketball IQ does not seem to be there. Over two disappointing seasons in East Lansing, more than half his shots were threes, despite only shooting 27%. He had highlight reel blocks but couldn’t stay on the court for Izzo behind mediocre big men because he is not disciplined or positionally sound defensively. If Cronin can somehow solve the puzzle that Izzo couldn’t and he recovers some of his recruiting hype, UCLA all of a sudden has an answer to their interior problems and could be a dark horse NCAA championship contender. Color me skeptical though.
Bottom Line
They are going to be very tough to play, especially at home. I actually like how the roster fits together a little more than Michigan, but last year they went 2-5 in the Big Ten when they left the west coast, and the former Pac-12 teams they play twice this year will be tougher after going 6-0 against them last year. Scheduling plays a factor, so I will stick with them in fourth.
3. Michigan
Predicted Starting Lineup
Elliot Cadeau, Junior, 9.4 ppg/2.9 rpg/6.2 apg at North Carolina
Cadeau is a speedy, floor general type of point guard. He does not look for his own shot much and only shot 34% from three last year on low volume, but he knows how to get his teammates involved.
Nimari Burnett, Senior Citizen, 9.4 ppg/3.5 rpg/1.5 apg
Burnett is entering his sixth season of college basketball. Last year for Dusty May, Burnett was Michigan’s best spot up shooter at 40% from three and a solid perimeter defender. Expect more of the same this year.
Roddy Gayle, Senior, 9.8 ppg/3.4 rpg/2.2 apg
Gayle is a strong, athletic guard with some off the bounce ability and the athleticism to finish above the rim. While early in his career many expected him to become an All-Big Ten level player, his broken jump shot (23% from three last year) has held him back.
Yaxel Lendeborg, Senior, 17.7 ppg/11.4 rpg/4.2 apg/1.8 bpg/1.7 spg at UAB
Perhaps the best transfer in the country with perhaps the best name in the country, Yaxel put up video game stats at UAB last year, leading his team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. He is strong and physical when he attacks the basket but can also shoot and create for others. He passed up a likely late first round picks this year in the draft to come to Ann Arbor, to the chagrin of power forwards in the Big Ten.
Morez Johnson, Sophomore, 7.0 ppg/6.7 rpg/0.3 apg/1.1 bpg at Illinois
Morez obviously doesn’t need much introduction around these parts. While his offensive game lacks polish and he had a penchant for fouling too much as a freshman, Mojo was a fan favorite before going turncoat because of his incredible motor and elite rebounding skills. Assuming he plays more this year, averaging a double-double is a real possibility. However, it’s worth noting that Aday Mara actually started their exhibition game against Saint John’s, so if the reason he left was for a bigger role, he might have chosen poorly.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Cluttered spacing might be an issue for Michigan offensively, as it was for them at times last year. Nimari Burnett is the only proven above average shooter on the team, and Yaxel is their only other average shooter. Morez Johnson and Aday Mara at center are complete non-shooters, and Gayle and Cadeau are below average on mostly open threes as teams dare them to shoot. This will allow lots of help on big-to-big pick and rolls they ran last year with Wolf and Goldin and are sure to continue to use with Yaxel and Johnson/Mara. Illinois found success last year putting Kylan Boswell on Danny Wolf to get into the bigger player, and it will be interesting if they use the same tactic this year to disrupt Yaxel.
Why They Beat Illinois
Michigan is going to be a dominant rebounding team, and a physical, tough defensive unit. When the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara is in the game, he will be one of the better rim protectors in college basketball. I haven’t even mentioned Trey McKenney yet, the 18th-overall recruit who could displace Gayle or Burnett as a starter. The McDonald’s All-American is strong, long and physical, and can be expected to have an instant impact. His shooting has been somewhat inconsistent as a recruit, but if he can space the floor for Michigan right away then they become very dangerous.
X-Factor
As mentioned above, if Trey McKenney is one of the top freshmen in the conference immediately with a good shot, Michigan becomes much harder to defend. However, I want to focus on Elliot Cadeau here. As a ball dominant point guard with a questionable shot, I wonder how he will fit on a team that will run their offense through Yaxel Lendeborg a ton, and if offseason hype is to be believed, through Aday Mara as well. While I think Cadeau is a more talented player, their point guard from last year Tre Donaldson might have been a better fit for this team. However, if Cadeau takes to better coaching from Dusty May rather than Hubert Davis and improves as a shooter and off-ball cutter, then Michigan might be able to live up to the preseason hype they are getting.
Bottom Line
Michigan is getting a lot of talk as the main contender to Purdue and was ranked No. 7 in the preseason AP poll. While they are certainly a very good team, I personally think they are slightly overrated. As good as Lendeborg was at UAB, he couldn’t carry them to a NCAA Tournament bid. Obviously, he has more talent at Michigan, but he is still the clear lone superstar and expecting him to transfer up and carry a team to a potential Big Ten title is a lot to me. Last year, Michigan was a 5-seed in the NCA tournament. This team is a bit deeper than last year’s was and Yaxel is better than Danny Wolf, but I still see more of a 3-4 seed in the NCAA tournament than a 1-2 seed.
2. Illinois
Predicted Starting Lineup
Kylan Boswell, Senior, 12.3 ppg/4.8 rpg/3.4 apg/1.1 spg
One of the best defensive guards in the conference if not the country, Boswell appears to be one of the vocal leaders of the team this year. Over the final seven games of last season, Boswell averaged 17.3 ppg/4.4 rpg/4.6 apg. At Arizona, he was a 38% three-point shooting before slumping most of the year at Illinois, shooting 25%. Get closer to his Arizona percentages while continuing to attack the rim and get to the foul line at a high rate, and we have an All-Conference caliber point guard on our hands.
Keaton Wagler, Freshman, #150 recruit, 6-foot-6 shooting guard
This spot seemed destined for Serbian speed demon Mihailo Petrovic all off season, but while he missed the offseason getting his visa situation sorted out and continues to await NCAA clearance, the Keaton Wagler hype rocket has blown out of the atmosphere. He profiles as a plus shooter who can also handle some of the playmaking load.
Andrej Stojakovic, Junior, 17.9 ppg/4.7 rpg/1.8 apg/1.2 bpg
The prized transfer portal addition of the offseason, Stojakovic will adjust from being the dude at Cal to one of many dudes at Illinois. His game isn’t exactly what you would imagine from the son of Peja, as he has very good athleticism and an off the bounce game, but will need to improve his percentages from three (32% last year), hopefully with a healthier shot diet.
David Mirkovic, Freshman, Montenegro
I had Ben Humrichous in this spot, even after a strong showing from Mirkovic in the Illinois State exhibition, and I do expect Humrichous to have a stronger second season with more strength and confidence. But after a few more highlights from Mirkovic from the Florida scrimmage, including a behind-the-back dump off to Tomislav, and I’m fully on-board the hype train. He is likely the best rebounder on the team already and has advanced passing reads. His swing skill is if he is a below average or above average shooter. Perhaps Humrichous starts the season (and actually both might start if Stojakovic isn’t ready to start the season), but I fully expect Mirkovic to get the lion’s share of the minutes as the season goes along.
Tomislav Ivisic, Junior, 13.0 ppg/7.7 rpg/2.3 apg/1.2 bpg
Big Tomi struggled with health and sickness his first year in college basketball but still put up some impressive stats in the Big Ten. Tomi should become the focal point of the offense in year two, stepping out and hitting threes and finding cutters from the top of the key. Along with Kylan and the injured Ty Rodgers, Tomi will be taking over a leadership role for this team.
Why They Will Exceed Expectations
Offensive versatility. They can hurt teams in so many different ways. They will get easy buckets pushing in transition, as many of the wings can grab a board and bring the ball up, and Kylan and Petrovic both love to push. Tomislav is a matchup nightmare for many centers, as he can post up smaller centers and shoot over them, or take slower centers away from the basket to open up cutting lanes. Most players on the court will need to be respected from three, and no one besides Ty Rodgers is a non-shooter. Illinois might not have a first team All-Big Ten player, but I expect them to get two or three second- and third-teamers, and their bench is probably the best in the conference.
Why They Will Disappoint
Cohesion and defense. A big advantage that this team has over last year’s is more continuity, with Ivisic, Boswell, Humrichous, three-point sniper Jake Davis, and Ty Rodgers all returning. Unfortunately, the offseason has not played out exactly as Brad would have hoped. Ty Rodgers suffered a partially torn patellar tendon that will have him miss at least part of the year, Andrej Stojakovic has an injury that could have him miss the start of the year, Tomislav Ivisic recently had his tonsils removed to avoid more illness, and Mihailo Petrovic missed the entire offseason getting his visa sorted and still has not been cleared to play.
They are an older team in general with professional experience, so they should be able to figure out how to play together but it is a concern. That cohesion or lack thereof will be most visible on the defensive side of the ball. Camryn Crocker is taking over the defensive scheme, and the expectation is we will be more aggressive and unpredictable in our ball screen coverages than the drop coverage we played last year.
However, that will take time for the players to be on-point with their rotations, and outside of Kylan Boswell, Andrej Stojakovic and Ty Rodgers when he is healthy, everyone else has some kind of question about their defense. Petrovic is small, Wagler is a freshman, the fours aren’t super athletic, and Zvonomir and Tomislav have some issues guarding away from the basket. The offense can carry the team, but the defense will need to find a way to be top 30 or so late in the year to go far in March.
X-Factor
There are a lot of ways I could go with this, from how the new Balkan player’s games translate to the NCAA, to improving shooting, to Ty Rodgers’ health. Keaton Wagler is the easy choice for me, though. Brad Underwood is prone to hyperbole in the offseason (remember Austin Hutcherson?), but the way he has talked about Keaton Wagler, comparing him to Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley as a recruit, is another level. It is not just him though. Kylan Boswell talks him up every chance he gets, and both local and national media who have seen him have all gotten on board. If he is the real deal and is one of the 3-5 best freshmen in the Big Ten, it just makes the roster incredibly balanced and hard to slow down.
Bottom Line
The Big Ten media poll put them fourth in the Big Ten and the AP poll ranked them 17th nationally. Meanwhile, the advanced metrics are more bullish, Torvik having them 7th, EvanMiya 8th and KENPOM 6th. I believe they will finish closer to the advanced metrics than the AP poll and think they have more depth of talent that fits together than the two teams ranked above them in polls, but below them here.
1. Purdue
Predicted Starting Lineup
Braden Smith, Senior, 15.8 ppg/4.5 rpg/8.7 apg/2.2 spg
No introduction needed here. Smith is the best pure point guard in college basketball, and the preseason National Player of the Year. Could he average a double double with assists on the year?
C.J. Cox, Sophomore, 6.0 ppg/2.8 rpg/0.7 apg
Cox was just a 3-star recruit but was inserted into the starting lineup for Purdue last year as the season went on over the much more highly-touted Gicarri Harris. Cox provided aggressive defense and shot 40% from three, with certain games where he just went nuclear and was the catalyst for wins for Purdue.
Fletcher Loyer, Senior, 13.8 ppg/2.1 rpg/1.8 apg
Remember how Loyer was supposed to come back to earth with his shooting percentages without Zach Edey calling all the attention? Well, he actually got better from the field and shot an identical 44.4% from three as his sophomore year, but on higher volume. Now in his fourth year with Braden Smith, Loyer knows exactly where to go to get his shots.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, Senior, 20.1 ppg/6.5 rpg/2.2 apg
Kaufman-Renn exploded onto the scene last year as the next in a long line of dominant Purdue big men. His style was a bit different from most of his predecessors though, as he is only 6-foot-9 not 7-foot-5 or above. TKR excelled in pick and rolls with Smith, hitting countless short jumpers and floaters on the short roll, as well as bullying his way to a barrage of right-handed baby hooks. This year, he will slide more to the power forward position, and might expand his game a bit further out for spacing.
Oscar Cluff, Senior, 17.6 ppg/12.3 rpg/2.8 apg at San Diego State
Painter brought in some help for TKR in the paint this year with double double machine Oscar Cluff. While Cluff was pretty average at Washington State two years ago in the old version of the Pac-12, the step down in competition turned him into a post up bully with decent passing. He’ll probably fall somewhere between the Washington State and South Dakota State versions of himself for Purdue, giving Kaufman-Renn a respite from defending bigger centers, running high low action with Kaufman-Renn and offering the Boilermakers a bigger rebounding presence.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Last year Purdue was just 53rd defensively on KENPOM, and while they should be better on that end, there is still some room for concern. Cluff and the return of 7-foot-4 Daniel Jacobsen from injury gives Purdue much more rim protection than they had last year with just TKR and Caleb Furst. C.J. Cox and Gicarri Harris were willing defenders and should be even better as sophomores. Outside of that though, there are still question marks. Braden Smith is an intelligent ballhawk hunting steals and run outs, but can be taken advantage of by bigger guards like Kylan Boswell. Fletcher Loyer is very good at throwing his Play-Doh limbs in the air as he goes to the ground to draw foul charges, but can’t stay in front of bigger, faster wing scorers like Andrej Stojakovic. TKR will abuse power forwards on the other end but won’t always be comfortable out on the perimeter against stretch fours.
Why They Beat Illinois
Remember when I talked about how hard the Illini offense is going to be to stop? Well, the Purdue offense looks like hands down the most explosive offense in college basketball. Braden Smith-TKR pick and rolls were already nearly unstoppable last year. Add another year of playing together, and those two and Loyer have a near telapathic connection of where to move together. Now they can add a second screener in Cluff or Jacobsen, who are also both good passers to run high-low sets with TKR, who won’t always get the biggest player on the other team. They don’t play at the fastest pace so I wouldn’t expect them to be the highest scoring team necessarily, but their efficiency will be at the top of college basketball most likely.
X-Factor
Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Kaufman-Renn are all proven commodities. All of college basketball has an good idea of what to expect from them. The center rotation of Cluff and Jacobsen can be expected to at least be solid and an improvement from last year’s non-Kaufman-Renn bigs. The shooting guard rotation is going to be what determines if Purdue is a legitimate national title favorite or just a very good team. Cox flashed as a strong shooter and willing defender last year but is not very big for the position and can become a more consistent offensive threat rather than a streaky one. Harris is a bigger, tougher defender, but was fairly lost offensively last year. And then there is Israeli import Omer Mayer, who likely takes over for Braden Smith as the point guard next year, but this year will be used as an off-ball shooter and secondary ballhandler but might not play as much as Cox and Harris due to needing their defense on the court. If the combination of those three can be an improvement from their wing rotation last year, that will lift Purdue to a higher stratosphere.
Bottom Line
Purdue is rightfully getting recognized as the clear favorite in the Big Ten, and one of the best teams in college basketball this season. I do not think this version is as dominant as Edey’s last year two years ago, but they also probably don’t need to deal with a team as good as UConn was that year to win a title. I would put them fourth nationally behind Florida, Houston and the Kentucky team that blew them out in their exhibition (not solely because of the exhibition, that team is just deep with talent). The Booilermakers are the easy conference champion pick, but the gap between them and the teams behind them, in particular Illinois, is not as huge as it seems from polls and commentary.
Big Ten Basketball Season Preview Part 3
