I’m so proud of the boys in blue. This has been foreseeable for so long. As with any baseball season, there were some concerns along the way. Every team suffers adversity. The season is just too long not to. All of us who write here at Bleed Cubbie Blue met online before the season started. All of us agreed that if the team could just not be buried by the end of April, they’d have a real chance to be in the playoff hunt. This team blew the doors off of those expectations, finishing April at 18-13
and following that up by reaching the end of May at 35-22.
152 games into the season and this team still hasn’t experienced a four-game losing streak. That’s consistent excellence. I’ve talked so many times about how the regular season is about the depth of the roster. The depth of the roster keeps you from going into extended funks. This team has utilized eight starters (not counting openers or Michael Soroka’s injury start). Seven of the eight starters have produced positive bWAR. That is the kind of thing that keeps a team from extended losing streaks.
Add to that Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar, who have each appeared in more than 60 games and have produced bWAR over 1.0. Drew Pomeranz and Daniel Palencia each were over 50 games and not super far behind. A productive bullpen minimizes games getting away. 10 hitters produced more than 1.0 bWAR. Some did it more with the bat, some with the glove and some a combo.
Somehow, this team survived basically getting nothing out of Justin Steele this year and losing Miguel Amaya (who is one of those 10 over 1.0 bWAR) for a huge chunk of the season. If you’re like me, you have long been jealous about teams, not just in baseball, who really embody next man up. When a guy goes down, no matter how significant, the next guys steps up and keeps things rolling. This team has done that better than I can remember.
It will be fun to see if a hungover Cub team can get back to business tonight in Cincinnati and match a season-high win streak. The job isn’t done. This was just the first step. The Cubs don’t have to care how the Reds do (after the next five days) or the Giants, Diamondbacks, Cardinals or anyone who is alive for the last Wild Card spot. In a couple of days, the Mets will no longer matter either.
There are only two teams that really matter to the Cubs over the last 10 games of the season — the Padres and the Brewers. As we’ve known for a while, the Brewers are almost certainly going to win the division. The Cubs are almost definitely going to play the Padres and the last remaining question is where those games will be played. If you’re like me and have been hiding under the bed the last few years while the Cubs were not in the postseason, the new format has one team host the whole Wild Card series. So when the Cubs clinch the top Wild Card spot, they’ll get to host that whole best of three at Wrigley Field.
When. Not if. It was pretty clear early on this team was going to defy expectations. If you thought this team might win 85 games if things went right, I really hope you took time to enjoy this team. Focused on all of the things this team is and not the things they aren’t. They’re not going to be favored in anything. The Cubs split their season series with the Padres. With Wrigley in their corner, they’ll have a chance. The Cubs won the season series from the Brewers. They are going to be a tough series for anyone. The Phillies are formidable. But they will be in the fight.
A hat tip to Ian Happ, the elder statesman of this team. He’s experienced the postseason as part of the 2017 club, and homered for the only run the Cubs scored in the 2020 postseason. But this is his first full season as a starter on a 162-game schedule postseason team. He played a ton on that 2017 team. But by the time the postseason rolled around, he only got eight plate appearances across 10 games for the team. Between the importance of the game and Wednesday’s contest being played against an NL Central foe, I’m not in the least bit surprised that he had a huge game and then caught the final out of the game.
Eight years is FAR too long for this franchise to go without a playoff win. They haven’t accomplished that yet. But you won’t be surprised to find out that I believe they will. What a ride.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 195, 42 BF
- Pirates: 181, 45 BF
Flashing red lights for both teams. When each team sent eight batters to the plate in the first inning and this game was tied at four by the second inning, this one was off of the rails. This is exactly the kind of game a manager hates this time of year. I think the first disaster scenario is something where tempers flare and there is a fight and the second is things just crashing off the rails. The team is six games into a stretch of 10 straight and having to grab six innings out of the bullpen isn’t ideal.
The Cubs threw 21.66 pitches per inning. The Pirates threw 20.11. There isn’t anything great there for either team. Both starters struggled and so even in this day and age with deep and specialized bullpens, this was a challenge for both teams to get back on the rails. But, the Cubs bullpen did put the brakes on. At times, it may have taken a lot of pitches, but they locked it down. The Pirates couldn’t and the Cubs got it done.
Aaron Civale has been being used as kind of a piggyback pitcher. He was a starter all season long and throughout his career. He’s done these long relief outings for the Cubs and then we don’t see him for a while. If we see him in Cincinnati after throwing 55 pitches, I’d think it will be Sunday. But more likely he’s off now until the next homestand. Drew Pomeranz threw 24 in a back-to-back outing. Porter Hodge has pitched a ton lately. We may not see any of those three tomorrow. But the inner circle of Cub relievers got the day off thanks to the productive Cubs offense.
Three Stars:
- Big picture baseball. I’m going with what WPA is going to tell us in a minute. Aaron Civale. The WPA tells us that he was the player of the game and I agree. Years ago, we talked about Greg Maddux and the way he not only gave us a better chance to win today, but also tomorrow. Three scoreless innings stabilized this game. In the middle of that, the offense gave him the lead and made him the winning pitcher. A guy who will be largely forgotten in Cub history has been pretty good for them. One run over eight innings of work so far. I would not be surprised if he gets to start a game in the final series of the year to help facilitate lining up the rotation for the postseason.
- Ian Happ had a single, a homer, three runs batted in and drew a walk. wRC+ up to 119. Oh look, that nestles right in with the three season prior to this one. Literally one of the most consistent stars in baseball today. Saw a stat that he has reached base 37 consecutive games in Pittsburgh, the longest streak ever. Pittsburgh area native if you’ve never heard.
- I’ve maybe only listed him here once before and haven’t been a big supporter of him on the field. Justin Turner had two plate appearances and produced two RBI singles. He and Moisés Ballesteros split the DH duties and combined for three RBI, including a titanic homer.
Game 152, September 17: Cubs 8, Pirates 4 (88-64)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Aaron Civale (.181). 3 IP, 11 BF, H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 3 K, HBP (W 4-9)
- Hero: Ian Happ (.163). 2-4, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.138). 0-2, 2 BB, SF, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.199). 3 IP, 19 BF, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 5 K, HBP
- Goat: Reese McGuire (-.130). 1-5, DP
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.057). 0-3, HBP
WPA Play of the Game: Joey Bart’s two-out, three-run homer in the first inning cut a four-run deficit to just one. (.215)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s single with runners on first and second and two outs in the sixth extended the lead from one to two. (.122) His first inning two-run homer was also the third biggest play of the game. (.113)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Michael Busch 90 of 134 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Shōta Imanaga/Jameson Taillon +19
- Cade Horton +18
- Michael Busch +17.17
- Willi Castro/Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -19.33
- Carson Kelly -21
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other teams that matter in any way at this point are the Padres, Mets and Brewers. The Mets can only win 89 if they win out and the Cubs have now won 88, so the Mets will also no longer relevant soon.
Up Next: On to Cincinnati. The Reds beat the Cardinals Wednesday afternoon, evening their season record at 76-76 and keeping their distant playoff chances alive. They are “only” 2.5 games behind the Mets heading into Wednesday night’s Mets/Padres game. Crazier things have happened, but for the Reds, the issue has become that the Diamondbacks have passed them. It’s a crowded mess for that last spot.
The Cubs have not yet announced a starter for the game. Colin Rea (10-6, 4.23, 146.2 IP) started in this turn last week. I can’t see why he wouldn’t take this start now that the playoffs have been clinched. The Cubs could try an opener, I suppose. But it makes sense to use Rea as the bulk guy with the playoffs clinched. I can’t see a path to the postseason roster for him, and yet he’s been reasonably effective all year long.
The Reds are going with Hunter Greene (6-4, 3.01, 92.2 IP) for his 18th start of the year. He’s been on and off the injured list all year. The Cubs faced him coming off of one of those IL stints in May. He threw just four innings and allowed two runs on three hits and two walks. When he’s right, he’s very good. He only threw 2.1 innings last time out. He allowed five runs against the A’s in Sacramento.
It’s going to be tricky to come off of the celebration, travel (even a short distance), and face a quality starting pitcher. But boy would it be nice to keep rolling and match their season-high winning streak at 5 (after John did all of that research on winning streaks).
