The O’s are 4-6 in their last ten games, as the elusive four-game win streak seems no easier to come by than before. Over their last three series, Baltimore dropped two of three to the Nationals and the White Sox before trying, and failing, to complete the sweep this weekend against Cincinnati.
Against a 50-40 Chicago that’s one of the best-hitting clubs in baseball, I’m not sure this is the occasion we’re going to see the Orioles start a new win streak in search of four in a row.
The Cubs come to
Camden Yards in second place in the NL Central, unlucky to be in the same division as the Milwaukee Brewers, but still fully in control of their fates all the same. They’re doing quite well considering all the pitchers who have missed time for them this year: starters Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd have all missed time this year, and I count eight more relievers currently on the IL, including old Orioles friend Hunter Harvey. So to be still in second is still pretty good.
What’s carrying the Cubs, as we said in the series preview, is the offense. The Cubs are, along with the Dodgers and the Yankees, one of the top three offenses in the game, with a decent batting average (.244), a good amount of power (.409 slugging), and more walks per inning than any other team in the Majors. The outfield has been stellar, in particular. Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a ridiculous year, hitting .910 OPS with 19 homers and 23 steals, and racking up an MLB-best 5.2 bWAR. Outfielders Seiya Suzuki (13 HR, .795 OPS) and Ian Happ (17 HR, .768 OPS) are supplying punch. On the diamond, there are contributors, too. Shortstop Dansby Swanson had a slow start but is heating up heading into the All-Star break. Alex Bregman (yeah, he’s a Cub!) isn’t having the greatest offensive season, but on the strength of solid defense at third, is contributing 2.2 bWAR in under half a season.
That lineup confronts Shane Baz, who’s settling in as a mid-rotation fixture after a bad start to the year. Baz is 3-3 with a 3.30 ERA in his last seven starts, and his fastball velocity is back to elite. The Tommy John survivor has had issues with the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches, especially his changeup, but he’s trending in the right direction. Keep an eye on the platoon advantage: Baz has struggled comparative against lefties, and Chicago’s lineup features four in Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto.
An All-Star one year ago, and a lefty, Matthew Boyd could be said to be a starter matchup to strike fear in the hearts of these Orioles, but he’s made just five starts in 2026, having dealt with arm and knee problems. So far, his numbers in 2026 aren’t dazzling (5.08 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but he has deceptive stuff, to judge by his excellent chase and whiff rates. Few on this Orioles lineup have seen him.
Of note, Craig Albernaz is stacking righties at the top of the lineup today, albeit Gunnar Henderson is taking his hacks in the third spot, while Coby Mayo gets a rare chance to hit fifth. The Blaze Alexander-as-outfielder experiment continues, which may be worrying, except he’s hitting .354/.415/.500 in his last 15 games. Dylan Beavers, activated from injury on June 28, is playing center tonight and hitting eighth.
Orioles lineup
- Taylor Ward LF
- Adley Rutschman C
- Gunnar Henderson SS
- Pete Alonso 1B
- Coby Mayo 3B
- Samuel Basallo DH
- Blaze Alexander RF
- Dylan Beavers CF
- Jackson Holliday 2B
Cubs lineup
- Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- Alex Bregman 3B
- Michael Busch 1B
- Seiya Suzuki RF
- Ian Happ LF
- Nico Hoerner 2B
- Michael Conforto DH
- Dansby Swanson SS
- Miguel Amaya C
