I know that no one really wants to remember last year, but the trip to San Francisco was a bit of a fulcrum point. Or, maybe, not a fulcrum point, but the part where the Braves were flipped off the deep end by a lever atop a diabolically-positioned fulcrum. Or something.
Specifically, the 2025 Braves ended May at 27-30. Not good, but playoff odds were still at about 50 percent, given the roster, the expanded playoffs, yadda yadda yadda. When 85 wins can give you a playoff spot, winning seven more
games than you lose over four months isn’t really that hard of a sell. They then lost four straight at home, including two one-run losses to the Diamondbacks — the latter of which involved giving up a seven-run ninth to turn an easy win into another disaster. Just like that, playoff odds went from 1-in-2 to 1-in-3, because, well, 27-34 is a lot harder to overcome than 27-30.
Then they got to San Francisco, and the bottom more or less dropped out. The Braves were swept, first with two consecutive walkoff losses, and then another one-run loss. Playoff odds were now down to 1-in-4. It was their fifth straight one-run loss; they wouldn’t have another one-run loss until the last game of June. Part of the kicker, too, was that after this visit to San Francisco, they went 11-8 for the rest of June — exactly the kind of improvement they’d have needed before the meaty part of the skid. But since that meaty part existed, it wasn’t near enough.
The Braves right now are… it’s not similar, but the vibes (which were near-immaculate for two months) are similarly doomer-ish. The Braves have lost 10 of 13, they’ve lost four in a row for the first time all season, they’ve been officially swept for the first time all season, and it goes on. The lineup is both injured enough to look like those random 2025 lineups with a bunch of warm bodies, but instead of the stories being about exciting resurgences from scrapheap pickups like Dominic Smith and Jorge Mateo, the only thing to really talk about is how nearly the entire team, including, say, Matt Olson, has gone from jumping all over hittable pitches to a revolting combination of staring at strikes, swinging at balls, and weak contact without any super-noticeable reduction in swing speed. Probably the biggest killer was rushing Drake Baldwin back because the Braves decided they couldn’t live with worse-than-a-pitcher offensive production from their fill-in catchers, only to have Baldwin hit like those catchers upon his return. Nothing has killed the team more than going from a best-in-class to a worst-in-class spot, and then keeping the worst-in-class stuff going even without Sandy Leon. Without the elite-ish hitting, the run prevention (or lack thereof) is more exposed, as the Braves have had to make tougher pitching management decisions while also taking the foot off the proverbial pedal in terms of actually orienting those decisions towards winning today’s game. Combine that with stuff like, “now is the perfect time to give Chris Sale more rest” and, yeah, it’s a mess.
But, this is about San Francisco and the Giants, who won two games (and had a third rained out) in Atlanta not long ago. The Giants aren’t good, and they followed their time in Atlanta by getting swept in Miami, though they have won their first two against the Athletics in a couple of very low-scoring games. If the Braves can’t recover here, it might just be that same early-June slide from 2025, just… much, much longer given how good April and May were.
On a related note, I’m of two minds about the press discussion (or lack thereof) regarding the team. Early on, before we knew what was going to happen, a lot of staffers and players were giving sound bites about how Walt Weiss differed from Brian Snitker because he was more vocal, animated, and willing to put himself in opposition to players to get a specific reaction. In other words, they were suggesting that he’d get steamed when things weren’t going his way. Of course, that was basically irrelevant for two months when everything was going his way… but we’ve heard nothing about any sort of steaming or internal boot-to-butt antics.
On the flip side, though, it may be disingenuous to expect any management impetus when the players could (but probably wouldn’t? probably?) point to management decisions as a contributing factor to the disharmony. I don’t think any players would come out and say it, but they’re as aware of the load management and the pushing Sale back as anyone. So, who knows — maybe we aren’t hearing anything about Weiss metaphorically spear-tackling his guys because really everyone needs a spear-tackle. But that’s really a side note.
Anyway, hope the things get better soon, but given that the Braves don’t seem very committed to making them better, we’ll see whether San Francisco is more of the same or a turnaround that is best described as fortuitous rather than some other adjective, because I’m not sure there’s much of a middle ground.
