There are 35 games remaining in the season. Many storylines and endpoints have been realized, come and gone with the rigors of baseball. The Brewers have won just under 80 games now, and we are really so many games out of first place, under .500 by a game. Outside of a collapse from another Wild Card contender, the Cardinals are done for the year. Gone is their really good bullpen.
Actually it has been about the same in August but with an uptick in ERA. The FIP is only a little worse post-trade deadline.
Maton and Helsley have been doing worse away from St Louis, but mostly Helsley: hitters are hitting over .900 OPS in August vs our former closer. Maton has actually been pretty good for the Rangers, but he hasn’t been elite like he was as a Cardinal.
Steven Matz, on the other hand, has been superb. Of the three, Matz could be most valuable. I hope if he wants to be, he gets to be a part of someone’s starting rotation next year. He might be one to follow to see how they progress. Batters have collected only two hits and two walks from Matz in 6 1/3 IP. But we do not really need these bullpeners who were traded.
2025 Schedule https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/cardinals/schedule
The link explains some upcoming win probabilities with pitching matchups. And the rest of the season’s schedule. As well as every game matchup so far! So it’s pretty cool to look at.
After this series vs the Marlins (which we are supposed to lose based on pitching matchups but hey, we won game 1 &2!) and a possibly maybe tough series vs the Rays, we might be able to go on a nice little tear vs the Pirates and then face a Reds series that could go either way. It should be interesting.
Then, fangraphs win expectancy has us banking a good bunch of wins vs the Athletics and the Giants, perhaps. Might be fun to knock the Giants out of the wild card hunt. The next few weeks could be a much different look for the Cardinals, especially if they can get back above .500 and go on a roll. This is going to be a whole new team to watch. Before Seattle, I would expect at the least that the Cardinals will be a few games over in the wins column.
There is of course the narrative that we cannot beat bad teams, but the truth is our record is worse vs teams over .500 than it is against teams under. We are actually handling bad teams pretty well for a team in 4th place.
NL Wild Card Hunt
2025
The Cardinals are one of the fringe wild card teams currently at 5 games out Monday night. They have the least odds at making the postseason in the NL Central, with the Reds more likely. The other fringe teams are from the NL West, the Diamondbacks and the Giants. The Cubs and the Padres are the two “elite” wild card teams because they are 2.5+ games ahead of the Mets. Even though the Mets were stumbling, they have been winning again and still appear to be a lock for the postseason.
It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to catch the Mets, but they might have a better chance than the Reds simply due to the tough strength of schedule. Unless the competition unlocks something in the 93 wRC+ offense of the Reds squad, if we are going to see an upset of the Mets we should aslo talk about the Cardinals who seem a little more able to make a little run at it if they get lucky. Or maybe I’m just dreaming.
Maybe the only reason I am even considering this is that over the last 10 games the Mets were 3-7 (on Monday). Part of me wants to see an all NL Central wild card year. Could the Padres and Mets both fall out of contention? Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals all making the postseason and maybe taking out one of the other two divisions would just be ridicuously improbable. The Mets might have series vs the Tigers, Phillies, and Reds coming up, but… they also are playing the Nationals, Braves, and Marlins in the coming weeks. That would mean only one team non NL Central during the divisional round. That would sure hurt the ratings though (haha).
When a team collapses, they usually do it to themselves. If the Mets cave in, the Reds or the Cardinals could make it. What if the Reds sweep the Mets? What if we sweep the Reds? What if the Reds and Mets lose a ton of games? The Cardinals might just have to do enough to squeak in. Maybe they will take care of the Cubs at the end of the season, and the Cubs will be the team to stumble out of it. Anything is possible still. This is the Cardinals final form for 2025. We just don’t quite know it yet.
As of Tuesday night August 20th, the Cardinals have a 3% chance of making the playoffs. Does that sound familiar? 5 games out of the wild card. The Reds are 7 games over .500. The Brewers beat the Cubs then the Cubs beat the Brewers. Things are not going to be easy. But what can we look out for during the remainder of the season?
- Can Masyn Winn surpass 4 fWAR? he is at 3.5 and under 100 wRC+ currently.
- Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras… who is better? they’ve both lost playing time due to injury, but Donovan has lost more. Contreras is easily out-hitting Donovan, but Donovan has more defensive versatility. I think at the end of the season Contreras will attain the more fWAR but it’s something to watch as they are both very close in value and are second/third best position player on the team to Winn.
- Can Ivan Herrera finish at 130 wRC+ or above? He’s close! at 129 currently.
- Is Burleson really a 120 wRC+ hitter, or more? He needs to be around there considering his defensive limitations. Hopefully he can improve even more. Depending on roster construction, he seems to be a viable first baseman going forward.
- Nolan Gorman’s wRC+ is 108 and Yohel Pozo’s is 102 in case anyone was wondering. Just wanted to throw that out there! I love both players.
- The spotlight for now is on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, but that will soon change as their windows slowly close. Burleson has proven himself to be at least a fringe roster lock (bat off the bench & backup at the least). Winn is a lock at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Herrera is the best hitter of this next wave of players, also a lock somehow, some way. But Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman still remain a bit of an enigma.
- How much will Nolan Arenado play after he returns? We honestly have no idea.
- Is Lars Nootbaar a slightly above league average hitter? If so he maybe should be a 4th outfielder. I think he is probably somewhere in between though, and can warrant being a starter (for now).
- How will Sonny Gray perform during his last games of the season? Will he tank and run out of gas? Will he shake his inconsistency and home run bug this season? Or will he remain an on again off again ace?
- Will they limit innings on Liberatore and even Gray? Why not save an old man’s arm and protect an up and coming starting rotation stalwart.
- How do the Cardinals get more out of their hitters? Or can they? Team 99 wRC+ offense that desperately needs more power.
- Should Andre Pallante be a part of the starting rotation in 2026 with his 5+ ERA and 4.5+ FIP?
- The Brewers and Cubs are stealing a ton of bases… Cardinals are not. The Reds are stealing more than us too!
- Why are the Cardinals not striking out much but also not taking many walks, while not hitting for power?
