This unprecedented 3-week international break is winding down and that means Fiorentina is ramping back up for its trip north and west to take on Genoa. Even though this pits the 19th-placed team in Serie A against the 17th, the respective trajectories of these sides couldn’t be more different: the Viola are undefeated since sacking Fabio Grosso and bringing back Paolo Vanoli, while the Grifoni have a single point in the league, scoring 3 goals in 5 games and reportedly putting coach Daniele de Rossi’s
job at risk if he loses this one.
The match will be played on Saturday, 10 October 2026, at 14:00 GMT/9:00 AM EST at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genoa. The forecast calls for a crisp autumn day with the sun peeking out from the clouds and the breeze blowing as the breeze tends to do in Liguria. The 1700 away seats are already sold out and the Viola faithful are clamoring for more, so expect a raucous atmosphere from a fan base that’s been given reason to believe in its team again.
Three things to watch for
1. Tactical wrinkles
Yes, it’s vague, but this 3-week break gave Vanoli his first chance for an extended run of training with his team. Last year, with Fiorentina competing on three fronts, it took 6 weeks before he was able to ditch Stefano Pioli’s 3-5-2 and bring in the 4-3-3 that stabilized the team. With a couple wins and a draw under his belt, he might feel that he’s built up enough credibility with the players and fans to try something a little bit sooner, especially as he’s had time to implement it during practice sessions.
I don’t think Vanoli’s a tactical innovator and doubt he’s going to whip up some Guardiolesque scheme to neutralize Genoa. He showed last year, though, that he’s capable of making little tweaks here and there to help his guys out. Maybe it’s just sharper set pieces, especially since he spent relatively little time on them last year. Maybe he’s cooking up a better defensive structure that will better protect his suspect fullbacks. Maybe it’s Nicolò Fagioli higher up, although I doubt it.
I’m fascinated by what a change in approach could do. If it works, the players will gain confidence in him. With so many new faces, a lot of the squad isn’t familiar with the minor miracle he performed last year in keeping the club up; making a smart tactical change that improves the team could convince the squad that he’s the right man for the job. When the players really believe in the mister, there’s a tangible bump (e.g. Vincenzo Italiano). Conversely, if Vanoli changes something and it backfires, confidence might diminish. In that light, adding a wrinkle or two is risky, but the potential reward is significant.
2. Locking down Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård isn’t your typical set piece threat. He’s just 183 cm/6’0 and isn’t an explosive leaper but his strength, timing, and single-minded commitment to reaching every ball turned him into a nightmare for Fiorentina last year. In the 2-2 last year, he headed home a free kick to open the scoring and caused a scramble that led to him assisting Lorenzo Colombo’s equalizer. The return leg was an unwatchable biscotto (the one that secured Viola survival, in fact) but once again, it was the Norwegian who looked most likely to make something happen, far more so than any of the forwards.
The issue, of course, was that the Viola were too dainty. Luca Ranieri, bless him, doesn’t offer much physical presence. Marin Pongračić is almost impossibly bad in the air for a guy with his size and strength. Pablo Marí, who played in that first game, simply couldn’t handle him. Pietro Comuzzo was benched for both meetings. David de Gea’s reticence to claim crosses only compounded the issue. The Rossoblu figured that out pretty quickly and their attacking plan immediately became “win set piece, lob it to Leo.”
Fabio Paratici spent a lot of money this summer increasing Fiorentina’s physical profile. Radu Drǎgușin and Viery are both enormous and relish the hurly burly. My guess is that the Romanian will mark Østigård at set pieces. If he wins that battle, he’ll turn off the tap on Genoa’s primary avenue of attack. De Rossi’s guys haven’t created much of anything in open play and rely on an alarming combination of old guys (Stefan El Sharaawy, Junior Messias) and anonymous journeymen (Milutin Osmajić, Hamed Junior Traoré, Vitinha). I fear Østigård more than any of them.
3. Life without Mastantuono
The 19-year-old Argentine has been Fiorentina’s protagonist since touching down at Firenze-Peretola, starting all 5 Serie A games and scoring a hat trick against Venezia. For the first time this year, though, he’ll start from the bench. Vanoli’s reportedly worried about his legs after his work for Argentina and will start him from the bench in order to preserve him following a transatlantic trip. Franky will be back in the XI next week, no doubt, but his absence sets up some intrigue.
Wilfried Gnonto will probably get the start on the right and Fiorentina will have to figure out what that changes. Mastantuono is left-footed and always drops deep and central to get on the ball, looking to turn his marker and essentially run the attack. Gnonto’s been deployed centrally in the past so it’s not like he can’t do some of that stuff but he uses his incredible quickness to get by defenders; he hasn’t ever looked like the sort of attacker who can generate chances against a set defense with the ball at his feet. He’s also right footed, which makes it harder for him to cut in and shoot, which Mastantuono does at any and every opportunity.
How this changes the Viola attack remains to be seen. Because Genoa will probably sit quite deep and bet that, without Mastantuono, Vanoli’s guys won’t have the quality to open them up. This could set things up nicely for Mateo Pellegrino, who’ll relish the battle with Østigård and company. Gnonto will probably get to the byline and hit more balls into the mixer for the big Argentine. I’m also hoping that Atta’s less deferential in the final third and takes responsibility. Mastantuono’s central to the attack but it has to function even when he’s not on the pitch.
Possible lineups
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Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
According to the bookies, Fiorentina’s the favorite but it’s a pretty small line; despite the diverging paths of these clubs, it’s still 19th against 17th, and I imagine that Mastantuono’s absence as the most recognizable name on the roster has spooked the casuals. There’s also the matter of how Genoa will come out with its back against the wall. If the players like de Rossi, they’ll give it everything and make things quite unpleasant for the visitors. If he’s lost their trust, though, they could roll over on him. I don’t have any read on that but given his status in the game, personal charisma, and success last season, I think these guys will ride out for him once more.
Even so, I’ll make it a 1-2 win for Fiorentina. I believe in Vanoli and think that the international break will have helped him more than a lot of other managers. I’m expecting a pretty grubby game, likely with a lot of fouling and carnage in midfield, that’s settled by moments of quality rather than sustained dominance. The Viola are better set up for that sort of game as they’ve got more match-winning players. I’ll say that the goals to Mateo Pellegrino and Atta for the good guys, with Lorenzo Colombo pulling one back at a set piece after some Østigård-induced havoc.
Forza Viola!
