The Mountain West Conference Tournament tips off Wednesday at noon at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas! Let’s break down the field.
The Mountain West Conference Tournament Bracket
Utah State (1)
No surprises here. Jerrod Calhoun’s offense — led by superstar Mason Falslev — is a beautifully designed and executed motion offense that dominates the rim and generates plenty of good 3-point looks. They’re also elite on the offensive boards, seldom turn the ball
over, and dominate in transition. If there’s one weakness, the Aggies struggle to corral rebounds on the defensive end. They also lost three of their final five, barely holding on to the Mountain West’s top seed.
San Diego State (2)
What else is new? Brian Dutcher’s defense is again among the nation’s best, ranking 23rd in my power ratings. The Aztecs have also trended up in that department since dominant rim protector Magoon Gwath returned from injury. But can they score enough to hold off the conference’s other top teams? They don’t have that dominant dribble creator as they have in the past. They also lost four of their final six regular-season contests.
New Mexico (3)
Eric Olen proved his coaching chops in his first year with the Lobos. The chaotic, switch-everything New Mexico defense will force plenty of turnovers, fueling an up-tempo, transition-heavy attack. However, conference opponents did shoot just 30% from 3 on high volume, so I wonder if regression will bite in the tournament. They also lost three of their final four regular-season contests.
Grand Canyon (4)
Bryce Drew transitioned to the Mountain West, and his Antelopes shut down every opponent in their way, leading the league in defensive efficiency and 2-point shooting allowed — I’m a huge Nana Owusu-Anane fan on that side of the rock. Of course, Drew’s offense has yet to evolve, as they’re still a dribble-heavy attack without enough shooting or spacing, so their guards/wings spend a lot of time bashing through traffic en route to the rim.
Nevada (5)
After a down year last season, Steve Alford’s squad bounced back in 2026 behind some better two-way shooting luck. Nevada runs more floppy actions than almost any team in the nation, but the Pack found plenty of success bashing into opponents, leading the Mountain West in free-throw rate — Elijah Price is shooting nearly eight free throws per game.
Boise State (6)
After a 1-5 start to conference play, the Broncos settled in and went 11-3 down the stretch. Dylan Andrews settled into the point guard role, while Drew Fielder, Javan Buchanan, and Andrew Meadow continued the Boise tradition of posting up from everywhere on the court. The Broncos were also dominant in the rebounding and free-throw differential categories. Leon Rice’s squad feels like a dark horse to make a run in this tournament. Against teams in their draw, they swept San Jose State and New Mexico and beat San Diego State in the regular season’s final week.
Colorado State (7)
First-year head coach Ari Farokhmanesh took a while to settle in, but his Rams ripped off eight wins in their final nine regular-season contests. The Rams are a downright dangerous motion offense, posting, cutting, screening, and shooting their way to an effective field goal percentage of 60% (eighth nationally). But they struggle with turnovers and defense.
UNLV (8)
The Rebels won six of their final nine regular-season games. They also won two of those in overtime and shot over 40% from 3 during the stretch, so they’re begging for regression. Josh Pastner empowers guards in his iso-heavy offense, and Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn has answered the bell to the tune of 28 points per game over the past 10.
Wyoming (9)
Wyoming was a great story early in the season, but Sundace Wicks’ squad went through a severe slump in the middle of the season, partially corresponding with injuries to frosh wing Nasir Meyer. But he looks healthy again, so the Cowboys ripped off five wins across their final six regular-season games. Expect to see a lot of Leland Walker ball-screens.
Fresno State (10)
Fresno can sometimes be frisky on defense, but the Bulldogs mostly got lucky with 3-point variance on that end of the court (conference opponents shot 31% from deep on high volume). They also can’t score.
San Jose State (11)
The problem with San Jose State this season was that you never knew who was available. Jermaine Washignton returned down the stretch, but he didn’t play very well.
Air Force (12)
What a brutal season for Air Force. No comment.
Mountain West Tournament Quick Thoughts
It seems like the top seeds trended down to end the year while the lower seeds trended up. As such, I expect chaos.
My three dark horses in this tournament are Wyoming, Colorado State, and Boise State. Among those three, the Broncos have the best chance to win three games in three days en route to the final.
Unfortunately, I still think Utah State has enough juice to rip through a slightly weaker top part of the bracket, and the Aggies are a tough matchup for Boise State, hence why they swept the regular-season series.
Official (Wrong) Champ Prediction: Utah State over Boise State, 72-68
