Two high-powered conference contenders meet Thursday night when the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills open the new Highmark Stadium after both coming off Week 1 barnburners. The last time these two squads faced off, in Week 15 of 2024, they combined for 90 points. After the Bills scored 36 against the Texans and the Lions reached 31 thanks to overtime against the Saints, this week’s total has climbed to 54.5—the highest for two teams playing on short rest since 2022.
Given the expected fireworks, the Lions
will need to keep pace with the fire-breathing beast that is Josh Allen, and they’ll be doing so without three starting offensive linemen in Blake Miller, Cade Mays, and Christian Mahogany. Finding ways to mitigate what Buffalo does best offensively while allowing Detroit’s offense to run the ball like it did in Week 1 against the Saints (33 carries for 165 yards) and play more consistent complementary football will be what gives the Lions a fighter’s chance in this primetime heavyweight fight.
Below are my six key stats and matchups for the Lions’ big road tilt.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Mafia Mash
Last season, the Bills offense had its way with teams on the ground as the best rushing offense in football. Buffalo led the NFL with 547 rushing attempts, 2,714 rushing yards, 30 rushing touchdowns, and 0.105 EPA per rush while ranking second with a 47.3% rushing success rate. It was an attack under then-offensive coordinator and now head coach Joe Brady that helped James Cook earn second-team All-Pro honors.
The Bills relied on their horses up front and their physicality to define a downhill rushing attack that was both prevalent and successful utilizing inside zone and man/duo concepts.
Last season, Buffalo had a 26.5% inside zone run rate (sixth) and 19.0% man/duo rate (25th), averaging 4.6 yards per rush on inside zone (tied-fourth) and 5.3 yards per rush on man/duo (second) as its bread-and-butter, similarly executed run-game concepts.
That remained prevalent against the Texans in Week 1, with Buffalo posting a 42.9% inside zone rate (third) and 14.3% man/duo rate (17th). However, the Bills weren’t nearly as successful with the physical, vertical-displacement run designs that worked so well last season, generating only a 33.3% success rate (23rd) on those runs in Week 1.
The Texans weren’t able to fully capitalize on taking away the run game, but doing so is still critical for the Lions. As a less dominant pass-coverage unit than Houston, Detroit needs to force Buffalo to play one-handed and rely more heavily on only stopping Josh Allen’s arm and improvisational skills in obvious passing situations.
What changed for the Bills this year? Offensive line coach Aaron Kromer retired this offseason, and Alec Anderson replaced Saints free agent loss David Edwards at left guard. He’ll join re-signed center Connor McGovern and recently extended right guard O’Cyrus Torrence as the bruisers on the interior of the trenches.
Buffalo will also want to get extra bodies on the field, leading the NFL in Week 1 with a 40.4% 13-personnel rate, with the Rams being the only other team even above 20%. That makes it imperative for Detroit’s point-of-attack defenders up the middle—Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams, Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes, and the other role players in the spine of the defense—to remain stout and give the Lions better chances of getting Buffalo off the field. That’s especially true against those condensed, scale-tipping heavy personnel groupings when the Bills deploy the likes of tight end Jackson Hawes.
The Lions’ Week 1 performance against these types of runs was incredibly reassuring. Detroit allowed only 38 yards on 14 such carries for 2.7 yards per attempt (sixth) and just a 14.3% success rate (third) against the Saints.
The Lions have invested heavily in those interior trench players, and making sure everything is placed on Josh Allen’s shoulders is a necessary first requirement when facing this juggernaut offense. Otherwise, Detroit risks finding itself in the ultimate pick-your-poison situation.
Bomb Squad
Next on the Detroit Lions’ defensive checklist for the jauntin’ Josh Allen is disarming his reinvigorated explosive nature.
Too often under Kelvin Sheppard, the Detroit Lions’ pass defense has resembled SWAT detective Harry Temple in the movie Speed, played by Jeff Daniels. A routine third- or fourth-and-long has resulted in Detroit getting blown to smithereens 20-plus yards downfield.
Last week against the Saints, the Lions’ second-half defense allowed Tyler Shough to average 9.0 yards per attempt with an 8.8-yard aDOT, 309 catchable air yards, and five explosive passes—four of which traveled 20-plus air yards.
The last time these two teams played, Josh Allen rocket-launched his way to 10.6 yards per attempt, a 9.7-yard aDOT, 249 catchable air yards, and seven explosive passes, including four that traveled 20-plus air yards.
When it came to those deep shots last season, Allen still ranked second with 75 attempts of 20-plus air yards, but Buffalo’s success and reliance on them declined. Allen completed only 34.7% of those passes (26th), while his overall aDOT dwindled to 7.3 yards (tied-24th).
That all changed last week against the Texans.
On Sunday, Allen was back in risky business, ranking second in the league at 11.1 yards per attempt with a league-leading 12.8-yard aDOT—his highest since 2022—along with the third-most catchable air yards (223) and five explosive completions. He also tied Shough for the league lead with four completions on passes traveling 20-plus air yards.
A healthy Dalton Kincaid (career-high 130 receiving yards in Week 1) and the addition of DJ Moore (100 receiving yards) opened up plenty for the Bills’ passing attack.
Kincaid was essentially a power slot in Week 1, aligning detached on 72.5% of his snaps and out wide on 37.5% of offensive snaps, both comfortably higher than last season’s rates. He hauled in all four of his targets traveling 10-plus air yards, including two of 20-plus, becoming the first Bills receiver to record 100-plus downfield receiving yards in a game since late 2024.
Moore, meanwhile, had seven targets of 10-plus air yards, resulting in four receptions for 93 downfield receiving yards—his most since late in the 2023 season—while aligning out wide on 76.7% of his snaps.
The duo of Kincaid and Moore represents the pair of offensive skill threats that most threaten the Lions’ ability to control this game. How Sheppard approaches pass coverage—whether again relying on an onslaught of blitzes and possibly leaning more into zone coverage—will be telling.
How Detroit deploys its matchups against tight ends will be an interesting development, potentially with Christian Izien serving as the key to unlocking that element in his Lions debut. Just as important will be how D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin handle Moore downfield and what level of help they receive from the safeties, while potentially seeing more Thomas Harper than Chuck Clark to account for Buffalo’s downfield attack and the need to put an umbrella over the offense.
Frisky Fourth Down Duo
In a high-stakes, high-scoring matchup where every possession matters, both coaches will likely be aggressive about keeping their offenses on the field. Their fourth-down decision-making last season certainly supports that, with both teams consistently looking to maximize drives.
Buffalo Bills
- Attempts: 32 — tied for 7th-most in the league
- Conversions: 19 — 5th-most
- Conversion rate: 59.4% — 11th-highest
- Added EPA: +15.45 — 6th-highest
Detroit Lions
- Attempts: 31 — 10th-most
- Conversions: 18 — tied for 6th-most
- Conversion rate: 58.1% — 15th-highest
- Added EPA: +11.69 — 9th-highest
This could be a game of inches, and winning in the margins will be key. Whichever team can steal an extra possession through its fourth-down decision making and execution could swing the game in its favor.
Allen is a quarterback built for money downs, while the Lions have an arsenal of military-grade weapons on offense that Christian Wolff, played by Ben Affleck in The Accountant, would happily transport in his Airstream PanAmerica travel trailer. When the offense stays on the field, both teams have the personnel to make that aggression worthwhile.
It’s Tricky To Rock a Rhyme, To Rock a Rhyme That’s Right On Time
Continuing on the aggression front, there could be an added sense of urgency from the Brady Bunch in this primetime weekday slot to ooh and ahh the crowd in the new stadium opener. Bills head coach Joe Brady spent two seasons on the New Orleans staff when Dan Campbell was assistant head coach and tight ends coach, and in the first primetime game of his head-coaching career, Brady could be looking to swing the biggest sword—and that includes the potential for some unexpected trickeration.
Last season, the Buffalo Bills completed both of their trick-play passes for 64 total receiving yards and converted their lone trick-play rushing attempt into an 11-yard dash for a first down. They also ran four hook-and-lateral plays—which FTN Fantasy does not track as trick plays—and converted all four for first downs and 107 total yards. The Lions also ran four hook-and-laterals last season.
In Week 1, Buffalo went right back to the well, attempting a third-and-12 hook-and-lateral in the first quarter from Josh Allen to Keon Coleman to Khalil Shakir that resulted in an 11-yard gain.
The Detroit Lions’ defense should be on alert for opportunities where Brady could get antsy for some strategic deception. I also wouldn’t put it past first-year Lions offensive coordinator Professor Petzing and the rest of Detroit’s offensive staff to have some smoke and mirrors up their sleeves.
Amon-Ra St. Zone
While the Buffalo Bills moved on from former head coach and defensive architect Sean McDermott this offseason and brought in much-heralded first-time NFL defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, they remained a zone-heavy defense with an 81.0% zone coverage rate (10th) in Week 1 against the Houston Texans.
[Amon-Ra St. Brown pulls up a chair to the dining room table, ties a bib around himself, licks his lips, and rubs his hands together]
Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most dangerous threats to zone-based defenses in football over the last few seasons—not that St. Brown doesn’t feast on man coverage as well.
2024 & 2025 Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. zone coverage
- Receptions — 2024: 84 (first) | 2025: 70 (sixth)
- Receiving yards — 2024: 945 (third) | 2025: 919 (third)
- Receiving first downs — 2024: 45 (first) | 2025: 40 (fifth)
- Yards after catch — 2024: 311 (12th) | 2025: 285 (ninth)
Hoping to contain St. Brown might be a fruitless endeavor for Leonhard and the Bills’ defense. While St. Brown will often find himself matched up with new nickelback Dee Alford, it’s almost inevitable that he’ll find soft spots in Buffalo’s zones, become a ball magnet, make defenders miss, and move the chains.
As a quick, fun aside to the Leonhard matchup, the Lions also have some familiarity with Buffalo’s new defensive coordinator. Lions assistant head coach and safeties coach Jim O’Neil and Leonhard were nearly attached at the hip as coach and player during the back half of Leonhard’s playing career. O’Neil was on the defensive staff with the Jets from 2010-11 (assistant defensive backs coach), Bills in 2013 (linebackers coach), and Browns in 2014 (defensive coordinator) while Leonhard was on each roster.
Ceedy Duces Are Wild
In Week 1, Bills third-year safety Cole Bishop saw an uptick in his usage closer to the line of scrimmage, aligning in the box on 38.3% of his snaps compared to 17.0% last season. Playing closer to the ball is how the Bills’ other starting safety—and former enigmatic Lions defensive back—C.J. Gardner-Johnson has spent much of his NFL career. However, against the Texans in Week 1, Gardner-Johnson aligned deep as a traditional safety on 86.3% of his snaps.
Petzing could put a scope on Gardner-Johnson whenever he’s left alone in the middle of the field, using pre-snap and at-snap shifts and motion, then play action and route combinations post-snap, to manipulate Gardner-Johnson and put him in a bind.
If Detroit can cook up a few passing opportunities with Gardner-Johnson aligned as the single-high safety, it could provide Jameson Williams an opportunity to find redemption from last week’s dropped deep ball and make the Bills pay.
2025 Jameson Williams vs. single-high safety defense:
- Receptions: 41 (16th)
- Receiving yards: 684 (eighth)
- Yards per reception: 16.7 (ninth)
- Receiving touchdowns: 4 (ninth)
- Total receiving EPA: +58.93 (sixth)
Whether it’s a catch-and-run opportunity over the middle where Williams deep-fries a poor Gardner-Johnson angle, or simply blows by him on a post route, Thursday night presents a good opportunity to let Jameson Williams spread his wings again and find 20-plus yards of giggle room to the end zone.
