Some of you are undoubtedly confused at the title. The Texans are coming off of a bye week, so what exactly are we looking at in the rearview mirror? Well, this is what we would lovingly call self-scouting. We are looking at the Texans season rankings in the various categories to see if we can identify key points that they will need to improve on for the rest of the season, Obviously, if you are 2-5 on the season then there are definitely some things to improve on.
However, not all 2-5 football teams
are created equal. Teams like the Dolphins and Titans repeatedly (although not the last two weeks) get their doors blown off. The Chargers have been an absolute mess and I am watching two dreadful teams on Sunday night football as I type this. The Texans are minus seven points in point differential which would seem to predict a 3-4 or even 4-3 record in some instances. So, clearly it is not completely awful.
So, the numbers we look at could be the beginning of figuring out a way around this. The team is 1-4 in one score games. Maybe some better luck is coming their way in the second half. Maybe there is one key adjustment they can make on either side of the ball to turn their fortunes around. The main thing is that the record really doesn’t accurately tell us what is going on with this football team.
Key Numbers
Total Yards: Offense 2367/13, Defense 2394/22
Rushing Yards: Offense 593/29, Defense 686/16
Passing Yards: Offense 1774/6, Defense 1708/29
Penalties: 58/508 (30th)
Sacks: Offense 15 (17th). Defense 21 (2nd)
Turnovers: Offense 3 (2nd), Defense 6 (26th)
Points per game: Offense 23.6 (15th), Defense 24.3 (19th)
Obviously, many of these numbers cut both ways, but there are a few that stand out when we get to the good, bad, and ugly on the season. We usually do great, good, and bad in victory, but with the team 2-5 victory doesn’t feel like the way to go. I should point out that they are mostly even in total yards and passing yards. They are in the positive on the plus/minus. It almost seems like they are finding creative ways to lose football games. This feels like a .500 team and that is where you would think they would end up.
The Good
We will actually get to C.J. Stroud later in the week, so we will not say too much on him in this space. However, there has been growth in the passing game in general. The team had some finds in the draft and free agency in terms of skill position players. Jaylin Noel looked a lot better before he went down with a season ending injury. Foster Moreau was a really good addition as a secondary tight end.
We should remember this when we are levying our complaints about free agent signings and draft picks gone wrong. Not everything is negative and not everything is positive. Most seasons have both in somewhat equal measure. The difference would be the sheer number of injuries the Texans have sustained on both sides of the ball and there is little that can be done about that.
The Bad
A very significant part of me feels sorry for Nick Caley. For the last year and a half he has been the most convenient whipping boy for the fanbase and those of us at BRB have certainly participated in that whipping and I might be the most guilty party. This is where we point out that they have surrendered the second fewest turnovers in the NFL and are in the middle of the pack in points per game and total yards. So, whether or not you torch Caley depends largely on whether you are looking at it from 10,000 feet or five feet.
The closer you look the more cracks you see in the veneer. You begin to notice one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. You notice an offense that looks dead at key points in games after the opposing polo has managed to scheme up something to stop the offense. Caley is just not good at adjusting on the fly. He can’t draw up a third and one play to save his life. These are things you can’t necessarily see when you look at just the aggregate data.
Maybe even more importantly, we notice that key changes to personnel seem to come too late or not at all. David Montgomery was clearly inferior to Woody Marks, but stayed in the starting lineup until he was hurt. Xavier Hutchinso is still getting snaps over Marvin Harrison Jr. and was getting them over Jaylin Noel for much of the season. Maybe even more glaring, Keelan Rutledge is one of the lowest rated guards in the NFL according to PFF, but a superior Wyatt Teller is waiting on the bench.
Evan Brown is one of the bottom five centers in the NFL and only a couple that could be called starters are listed below him. Part of this is on Nick Caserio for the players he gives to Caley. However, the other part is on Caley for not recognizing that certain guys needed to be replaced in the lineup. I know you don’t want to kill Rutledge’s confidence, but there comes a point when the best five guys need to be out there.
More than anything, this probably goes to DeMeco Ryans more than anything. This isn’t a smash mouth running football team. It hasn’t been that at any time during Ryans’ tenure. I get that this is what he wants and that makes perfect sense, but at some point you need to go with what you are. You are a spread em’ out passing football team. You might as well lean into that.
The Ugly
The words we just said about the offense could be echoed about the defense. The main difference is that the defense was supposed to be a top five unit in the NFL. They certainly have not been that with the exception of the Tennessee Titans game. I could certainly write off the Jacksonville game to the field conditions or the Buffalo and Cincinnati game to playing top five quarterbacks in the league. There comes a certain point when you run out of excuses.
There are three problems that we can isolate with the defense. The first is a lack of turnovers. Six turnovers through seven games is simply not good enough. That could be a function of performance, but it is probably more a factor of luck. Sometimes the bounces just don’t go your way. Still, there were a couple of prominent opportunities for picks that would have turned two losses into wins. A 4-3 start certainly looks a lot better than 2-5.
The second problem is the same as above. Reed Blankenship is dead ass last in safeties according to PFF. I would say that we would be surprised, but PFF also rated him as one of the worst safeties last year. Somehow Caserio thought he was a good guy to sign anyway. Add in the fact that some other players (almost all in the secondary) have not played good football this year and you have the makings of a disappointing defense regardless of scheme.
That brings us to scheme. The Texans have played more lax and more bend but don’t break defense. The obvious reason was to avoid big plays, but they still have given up a ton of big plays. They rely on the front four to get home and they do more often than most teams, but they need to have more consistent pressure. More importantly, they used to make life miserable for quarterbacks. Things have been way too easy for them this season. Ryans may not want to consider personnel changes or scheme changes, but after seven weeks the “it’s early” mantra just isn’t going to fly.
