It happened. It stinks, but it happened. The St. Louis Cardinals are in full rebuild (as evidenced by FanDuel’s 69.5 win total), but that reality has sunk in enough that fans seem to embrace the idea of
growing pains with the young, but talented roster.
With the trade of Brendan Donovan, who it looked like was going to be heading to Jupiter with the team before the three-team deal with the Mariners, the Cardinals projected starting lineup has a total of three hitters over the age of 27, with one of them being the oft and currently injured Lars Nootbaar. That leaves Alec Burleson and Pedro Pages as the elders of the clubhouse as the team searches for their next leader on and off the field. Burly and Pages both have just over three years of MLB experience, so the team that we see taking the field at Busch next year will likely be learning the big league game together. Now that Donnie is in Seattle and the roster is complete outside of the rumored righty power outfielder, it seems like a fair time to see how that trade impacts the lineup to start the 2026 season. In case you missed it, I had Redbird Farmhands and Aidan Gray from Redbirds on the Arch, as well as Tampa Bay Rays contributor Roman Rodriguez on my podcast to discuss the trade from those sides.
Who’s on second? And third? And DHing? And playing the outfield? All questions the Cardinals must answer in 2026
According to FanGraphs, the starting nine for the Cardinals are 28-years-old or under, with Lars Nootbaar being the eldest of the group. The outfielder’s health is a problem of its own, but I guess until we hear any update on his health, we have to trust Bloom and expect that Noot will be healthy and at the top of the order. Interestingly, this FanGraphs projection also points out how the entire lineup consists of homegrown talent, with five of the nine starters being selected in the first and second round. For as much grief as Mozeliak gets, that entire projected lineup was acquired during his reign, and its not like these players are bottom of the barrel major leaguers. The vast majority of them, if not all, would be likely find a major league taker if the Cardinals were to simply cut these players loose like certain Cardinals “fan” social media accounts imply.
So with the departures of lineup fixtures Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras, what does the Cardinals Opening Day lineup look like as of early February? This is probably easier to predict the players involved than it is to guess the starting five in the rotation at this moment, but the order in which these players hit is likely to be up for conversation for much of the season’s first half. The FanGraphs projection has Pedro Pages starting at catcher with Ivan Herrera at DH. While I think this could be a real possibility at some point during the year, I think it is more likely that Oli Marmol will stick to his word and allow Herrera the chance to start 3-4 times per week at the start of the season.
The other defensive question comes at second and third base, with each of Nolan Gorman and Rookie of the Year co-favorite JJ Wetherholt as the likeliest outcomes at those spots. Where they spend most of their time will again be a talking point, but it seems like Wetherholt has been spending most of his time, as well as being most comfortable, at second base. Hopefully, the Cardinals will not want to tweak with position alignment too much in Wetherholt’s rookie season, as we have seen what learning new positions in the bigs as well as adjusting to major league pitching at the same time can do to the beginning of a career. Because of this, Gorman will probably switch back to his natural spot at the hot corner, despite below-average marks there after bouncing back to third base at times last season.
Speaking of positions, I get irked at times when people just suggest that so and so should try the outfield or first base. While it is likely that these high level athletes can handle it, I see too many suggestions in-season for someone like Herrera to “try first base” while having a total of six appearances at any level at the position. I do believe that he is athletic enough to figure out how to play first, or even be a potential fit in the outfield, but again, we need to remain focused on one thing at a time and right now, I see that primary focus as offensive production for basically every person in the order.
The adoption of the designated hitter by the NL on a full-time basis was one I was against for the majority of my baseball life, but as I got older and the game changed, whether we like it or not, getting rid of pitchers (like myself) at the plate made the most sense for the league. What I have found interesting, though, is that the days of the big, beefy, bomber at DH seems to be gone and the NL has been slower to adopt to the DH spot being a position for homers and/or extending careers of those power hitters. According to FanGraphs sortable DH data from 2022 through the 2025 season, nine of the top 15 teams are AL teams when sorted by offensive value, because somehow defensive value is a DH measure available on the site.
Of the six NL teams cracking the top half, all six have been in the playoffs since the adoption of the DH, but the drop off in value from the top five to the next 10 is exponentially greater. For example, the Phillies rank 4th with a 131.2 value, while the Cardinals come in at 13th with a 32.1 value. The other three at the top are Yankees (261.6), Dodgers (171.6), and Astros (143.1). The Cardinals have not settled on one player being the everyday DH, typically using a rotation for players to get half days off. Personally, I think that they could have (the options are limited now), used the DH spot to invest in a Kyle Schwarber-lite and find someone who can hit 30+ homers to actually inject some life into the lineup while not blocking youngsters on the defensive side.
Back to the lineup. With Donnie gone, we can change our pencil to erasable pen that Wetherholt will be ticketed for St. Louis out of Spring Training. I fully expect him to break camp with the team, but I also want to be fair to him, the organization, and make sure to not get too far ahead like we did for Walker, Scott, Carlson, and so on, and so on…
The leadoff spot will be up for grabs if Nootbaar is not ready for the opener, and the in-house options look like Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II as the table setter. VSII has the gamebreaking speed to cause chaos, as long as he can fine tune his approach to get on base more often in 2026. He has spent nearly his entire major league career sitting in the ninth spot, the other, and potentially more likely outcome for Scott. Winn has been the leadoff man in 112 of his 316 games, with 62 games in the second spot, and another 61 hitting ninth. So far, hitting first has been a struggle for Winn due to his aggressiveness at the plate, but his refined approach, maturity, and health could make him an electric player to start the offense for the Cardinals. He has shown more patience in the minors, but asking for a walk rate approaching 10% may be a difficult task for Winn, and I would personally rather have him swing away than be passive at the plate because I believe he has some more power and speed potential that he is still hoping to unlock. I did see Wetherholt mentioned as possible in the comments, but I would be surprised if his debut season was spent at the top of the order until he proves himself at the big league level.
Two through four are going to be the engine of the order, just like most quality teams. In some order, I would expect Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and then my pick to click for this year, Nolan Gorman. I understand those that have jumped off the Gorm train years ago, as I have been close, but I think this year is truly the season the organization learns who he will be. Yes, Gorman has the second-most career at-bats on the roster, but those 1500+ appearances have been unevenly spread over four strange seasons for the infielder. The pop is there in potential for all three of these middle of the order players, but we have yet to see sustained power numbers that could make the trio push for 90+ homers on the year. If we can approach that (75-80 this year), much of my offseason negativity towards the lack of home runs the Cardinals have had in their lineup for much of the 2020s, where they are 21st in homers and 16th in slug.
The bottom-third of the order is where we will probably have to wait and see Wetherholt, and with Marmol’s desire to go lefty/righty, his spot could be determined by wherever Burleson and Gorman end up. If Burly or Gorm end up hitting fourth over Herrera, we could see Wetherholt pushed down to sixth for whoever fills the DH spot, assuming Herrera is slotting in behind the plate. The lack of answer at DH could be a reason why Marmol would hesitate to start the Panamanian at catcher regularly, especially with Pedro Pages available to handle the pitching staff albeit with a needed progression on offense. That will be a probable outcome when Herrera needs a day or struggles defensively, but until then, we might see a mix of Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and Jose Fermin mixing in as the full-time hitter. Both Saggese and Fermin offer positional versatility, so they could also give Gorm and/or Wetherholt a needed day in the field and swap spots. Neither player, though, possesses the power potential expected from a DH, but both profile strong enough offensively to work their way into regular at-bats in this season of evaluation.
If Noot is healthy, this is also where Masyn Winn can slot in. As a six or seven hitter, Winn could find a way to tap into his offensive potential if the guys in front of him do their job. There will absolutely be extended period of lineup growing pains this season, but from watching the team nearly everyday, I feel like the lineup could be an underrated part of the Cardinals, while understanding that the low expectations is due to the overall lack of experience and production to this point. I believe, that a year of seasoning for the other nine in the lineup around Wetherholt, we have the potential of seeing leaps across the order, including who I see hitting eighth in Jordan Walker.
Had Bloom made good on his wishlist of wanting a power righty in the outfield, that could have spelled more trouble for Walker than Noot or Scott. As things stand, though, everyday right fielder makes the most sense, like it or not, for Walker and the Cardinals. Because of his mismanagement to start his career, Walker has just one minor league option season remaining and I would be shocked if the Cardinals burned that option in a year meant for runway and opportunity. As is the case in most offseasons, we have heard positive reviews on Walker’s work ethic and his positivity that he is going to turn a corner in 2026. If he is able to match the ZiPS projections set for him by Dan Szymborski, Walker would put up a .232 batting average with 14 homers and a much reduced K-rate. According to the site, this would put Walker at an 88 wRC+ for the season, still below-average but a massive jump from his bummer 66 wRC+ he put up last season. That type of production, along with gains in the stolen base and fielding departments, would do well for Walker’s confidence and future in the league.
The rest of the lineup could set up Victor Scott II in the nine hole, unless he gets a shot to prove his value at the top of the order sans Noot. We have heard about the adjustments he has made to his offensive approach, and hopefully those show up in the box score. Scott has set his goal at 70 stolen bases this season, but he needs to find ways to get on base more consistently for that to happen. With him hitting ninth with a walk or single having the potential to turn into a double really quickly, his presence anywhere in the order could do a lot to get the offense moving.
At this point, the starting nine looks mostly set with defensive alignment and slots in the order left to be settled upon. Heading into Spring Training, I admit that I’ll be more focused on the games than I have in the past with a lineup that had veterans entrenched into positions or a roster without much turnover. The pitching may be the ultimate competition in Jupiter, but the lineup construction will be an extensive story that likely won’t be settled upon when the team heads north.
SELF PROMO OF THE WEEK
- I already linked the Cardinals on My Time where I spoke with the fellas from Redbirds on the Arch and Roman, the Tampa Bay Rays contributor. For those that followed COMT on your podcast platform of choice, I have merged with Redbird Rundown so all future pods will be posted there. Link to RR Spotify.
- This week’s Random Cardinal of the Week featured the pitcher who threw the last no-hitter for St. Louis. I know this audience knows that without researching, but he is pretty random.
- Finally, Redbird Rundown discussed the Donovan trade, Cardinals TV (where I go off on National broadcasts and MLB layoffs), and a short segment during February pointing out lesser known Black Cardinals during Black History Month. This goes live at 6pm on YouTube and audio.
Thanks as always for your support and feedback!
