This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
Defense Setting the Stage
We are not Myles Garrett haters, but watching him with the Los Angeles Rams will be an interesting talking point this season, especially with how Jared Verse does in comparison. If you isolate Garrett’s first game, then Cleveland has a chance to make big headlines in Week 1 if Verse contributes
to a dominate defensive effort for the Browns.
It shouldn’t be out of the question either that Cleveland has a good chance of winning against the Jacksonville Jaguars to kick off the season. There are times when certain quarterback styles struggle against a particular defense, compared to others. When I think of the Browns’ defense over the past number of years, I think of two players: Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has an 0-2 record in starts against Cleveland in 2023 and 2024, both of which were victories for Cleveland.
Obviously, last season under new head coach Liam Coen, Lawrence’s craft was elevated significantly. Cleveland also has a new defensive coordinator in Mike Rutenberg, as opposed to Jim Schwartz. So while those two performances still linger in the back of my mind, we don’t know how those new coaching-related variables will impact things. On paper, I still love the match-up for the Browns’ defense and their ability to take over the game.
The Browns have gone 45 straight games without allowing a quarterback to throw for 300 yards, the longest streak in the NFL since the Colts went 52 games from 2005 to 2008.
Cleveland’s defense is also healthy across the board. Travis Hunter, once thought to be a wide receiver/cornerback threat, will be focusing his efforts mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Their running back situation is fairly new and fluid, with last year’s fourth round pick — Bhayshul Tuten — expected to lead the way. The Jaguars’ receiving corp is a bit unique in the sense that they aren’t a group that will statistically tear up the league, but they were fairly reliably in their chemistry with Lawrence last year.
Anything Else is Gravy
Last year, how many times did we say that the Browns clearly had a championship-level defense, but the offense and special teams blunders were so bad that it was unbelievable? If the defense maintains a degree of competency, then consider this:
- Special teams was overhauled with a new coach and a chance to start fresh. Think back to when they gave up two touchdowns to the Jets last year — if that didn’t happen, Cleveland easily wins that game, and some others. A little bump in special teams play will go a long way.
- What improved on offense? Let’s start with the offensive line. Everyone from last year is retired, out of the league, or backups elsewhere, which is pretty telling. This year’s group can’t be worse. Now, that doesn’t mean they’ll be great either. The chemistry or individual efforts are a big unknown to Browns fans until we see them in action. They don’t have an easy match-up in Week 1 against the Jaguars’ defensive front. They are a big part of the Jaguars being a top run defense, as well as the edge pressure from Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker.
- The wide receivers additions of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston should be big improvements in the receiving game. Watching Concepcion is the single-most exciting new element to the team that I’m eager to watch in the first part of the season.
- With Deshaun Watson, who knows what to expect. I don’t have high hopes for him, but I do feel like he’s looked better than the low bar he set the past couple of years. I also have seen those blunders that can turn a game around (for the bad) in two preseason games and throughout training camp.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg was given praise by veteran LB Quincy Williams and S Grant Delpit this week. Rutenberg tried to downplay their comments a bit, but could there be something deeper here with the preparation and creativity?:
Grant Delpit said on the radio yesterday that you designed defensive plays like other coaches design offensive plays. How do you do that?
“I think he’s giving me way too much credit, because we play really hard, really smart, and really violent. That’s what we do. Listen, in terms of preparation, it’s based on fundamentals. It’s a players’ game. It’s going to be our players’ defense; they’re going to make it come to life. And hopefully we’re doing everything we can as a coaching staff, with the collaboration of the players, schematically, to get them in the best position to play and let their talents take over.”
Quincy (Williams) said you watch more film than any coach he’s ever been around. Where does that come from? The fact that you think you need to watch that, or the idea that you want to.
“First of all, I can’t imagine that I watch more film than anyone. There are amazing coaches in this league, in college football and high school, who are all dedicated to watching film and helping their players. I was just raised on hard work, and not being super talented athletically, so I try to outwork as much as I can. But everybody works hard, our coaching staff works hard, our players work hard, and they watch a ton of film. It’s really fun when we all start to watch film together, seeing different things on tape, ‘oh, did you see that? You see that? Cool.’ ‘Hey, what do you think about that?’ And that’s where the collaboration comes from.”
Offensive coordinator Travis Switzer was asked about if Austin Barber ends up starting at right guard for the injured Teven Jenkins:
If Austin (Barber) does get that starting job, what can you say about the progress he’s made, especially starting his rookie time at tackle and moving into guard over the past couple of weeks?
“Yeah, no, his development’s been impressive. It’s hard enough for a rookie to come in and play, let alone when he’s been at multiple spots. It’s all about the approach and the way he goes about it. I mean he’s wired the right way. He’s a very diligent guy, he’s very tough. So, we’re excited about him and his development.
Special teams coordinator Byron Storer was asked to name his core special teams guys, which may have played a role in some of them making the roster:
“Winston Reid, Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, Blake Whiteheart, Malachi Corley, Tylan Wallace, Daniel Thomas. Hope I’m not forgetting anybody.”
(Justin) Jefferson?
“Yeah, Justin Jefferson… well, I haven’t named the rookies, yet. They have to play a game before I start naming them as my core guys. But yes, the rookies Carsen Ryan, Justin Jefferson, those guys.”
McMillon?
“Oh yeah, Donovan McMillon, one hundred percent. Absolutely, yeah. It’s really those veteran core guys and then the rookies are falling in line, you know what I’m saying.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- Harold Fannin was a breakout star in the preseason, but had minimal usage in the preseason. How involved will he be in Todd Monken’s offense?
- My biggest frustration with Watson over the past few years of his starts is that halftime would come so quickly, and you’d look at the scoreboard and see 0 points for Cleveland. Empty halves aren’t going to cut it.
- Andre Szmyt had a great finish to last season, but Cam Little for the Jaguars also has a big leg.
- How many jet sweeps or passes in space are we going to see for KC Concepcion?
- According to FanDuel, the Browns are 8.5 point underdogs against the Jaguars. The over/under is 40.5.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “This is my time to be optimistic. We saw the Rams get thwarted by the 49ers with a carefully crafted gameplan and a strong defensive performance, showing that teams can flip a switch and make a positive impression right off the bat in Week 1. Cleveland being healthy is a big factor here, and I think both defenses are up to the task of making this a tight game early. As it goes on, I think Cleveland’s young pieces offensively string together a couple of big plays to turn the tide in the Browns’ favor for an upset.” Browns 20, Jaguars 17
Curtiss Brown: “Honestly, The Cleveland Browns will likely be picking top 5 in this upcoming draft. However, I don’t believe this team will be as bad as people will think. The offense is improved on paper but the quarterback position is still an issue. The QB room doesn’t give me a ton of confidence. At all. It will take time for the offensive line to gel as a group and it will be better as the season progresses. As far as the wide receiver room goes, a WR trio of Jeudy, Concepcion and Boston is solid enough. As far as cohesion, the offense will take a while to get acclimated but it’s hard to know how good this offense will be due to the QB room being the way it is.
Defensively, losing Myles Garrett will be noticeable but replacing defensive Jim Schwartz with Mike Rutenberg will be an upgrade in terms of scheme. Jared Verse isn’t Myles but he’s a top tier edge rusher in terms of his age group. The linebacker room with Carson Schwesinger and Quincy Williams is solid and the secondary with Denzel Ward, Tyson Campbell, Grant Delpit and rookie Emmanuel McNeil Warren. The defense might have lost Myles Garrett but they have players who are good enough to contribute.
As for this game, this has upset potential. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a good team but their offseason was quiet and the team has some question marks. Losing running back Travis Etienne on offense will affect their running game and losing linebacker Devin Lloyd will impact their defense in terms of turnover variance. Only way the Browns keep this game close is if they are able to run the ball consistently, stay ahead of the chains and not put the defense in tough spots. Close game, but Jacksonville prevails. Barely.” Jaguars 23, Browns 20
Barry Shuck: “I am predicting a really good season for the Browns, and no, I am not a homer. I just look at the schedule with that fourth-place finish and see a lot of bad-to-mediocre opponents. The Browns will do well if this offensive line holds up and becomes an asset. If the new guys and depth fail, this new offense will cause the collapse. Would love to see the second coming of Deshaun Watson the way Michael Vick, Randall Cunningham, and Brett Favre achieved later in their careers. Jacksonville is a really good team. They have two really good pass rushers, and one of them will go against rookie Spencer Fano. Can Cleveland’s defense remain elite despite losing Jim Schwartz? Last year, the Jaguars were the #1 run defense, but this new offense is built around the short passing game, so we will see. I predict great things for the season, just not in Week 1.” Jaguars 24, Browns 20
Ezweav: “Hard to get a read on anything we’re doing offensively or defensively until we see what Monken & Tutenberg roll out in terms of scheme. One very positive thing about the ousting of Stefanski is that he took Tommy Rees with him because that guy’s run schemes last year were completely nonsensical. A modest improvement in that area can do a lot; takes the pressure off our (terrible) QB room, keeps the defense off the field a bit longer, et cetera, et cetera
The loss of Myles is impossible to overstate, which probably ameliorates whatever offensive improvements we possibly make. That said, while the Jaguars aren’t exactly the Raiders in this regard – we do nonetheless have a weird history with them. Anything could happen almost irrespective of how good or bad either team is in any given year.
So, why not? Take the good guys.” Browns 16, Jaguars 15
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
