I really don’t have much hope for Portland this year.
That is not because the roster lacks talent. It is almost the opposite.
There might be too many talented players who need to do the same things.
Portland surprised everyone last season by winning 42 games and making the playoffs, and a huge reason why was that they could basically run the offense through Deni Avdija all game. His usage jumped to 28.5 percent, he became an All-Star and the Blazers finally had a clear offensive identity. Now Ja Morant
and Damian Lillard are walking into that offense, while Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson are still on the roster.
Portland Trail Blazers: Over/Under 41.5 wins
Over: -110
Under: -115
To win NBA Championship: +7000
To win Western Conference: +3500
To win Northwest Division: +3300
Last season: 42-40, eighth in the West, lost in the first round
Key additions: Ja Morant, Damian Lillard returning from injury, Jeremy Sochan, Branden Carlson, Micah Potter
Key losses: Jerami Grant, Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley
Coaching change: Micah Nori replaces Tiago Splitter.
My biggest problem is that I do not understand how the offense is supposed to work.
Morant needs the ball. Lillard has spent his entire career with the ball. Avdija just had the best season of his career because Portland finally gave him the ball. Scoot still needs developmental reps, and Holiday averaged 16.3 points and 6.1 assists last year and is still expecting a real role. Even Portland’s own preseason coverage has centered around how crowded this backcourt is and how many players need touches.
The spacing does not make me feel much better. Morant shot 23.5 percent from three last season. Avdija is much more effective getting downhill than standing around. If you put those two next to Clingan and another non-shooting big or wing, it becomes really easy to picture the same kind of offensive issues Dallas had when it tried to play Anthony Davis with a bunch of wings and limited shooting.
That is why I think Portland went away from what made last season work. Instead of continuing to build around Avdija, Clingan and Camara, they added another ball-dominant guard to a roster that already had too many guards. They may have added talent, but I am not convinced they made themselves a better basketball team.
I do love Nori, and he is probably the thing that gives me the most pause. If he figures out the hierarchy quickly, this could work. But asking a first-time head coach to balance Morant, Lillard, Avdija, Holiday, and Scoot while also maintaining the defense is a lot.
Portland slightly overachieved last season anyway. They went 42-40 despite finishing 20th in offensive rating with a negative net rating, and their expected record was closer to 40-42. I think they are talented enough to hang around the Play-In. I think last year was more their ceiling than the start of a huge jump.
