A lot has happened in just 16 games.
In just the fifth game, Trae Young going down due to a freak collision into his knee turned the entire season on its head.
In order to tread water, the Hawks have leaned
on Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the backcourt and turned to Jalen Johnson to shoulder the load on offense. The latter two have broken out on offense in his stead, but there’s also been a defensive renaissance — until this week — that had the Hawks flying high at 9-5 at one point.
For a reminder of the recovery timeline, on November 1 the Hawks released a statement saying in part Young, “underwent an MRI on Friday [October 31].” That MRI revealed a right knee MCL sprain but no additional structural damage. He would then be re-evaluated in four weeks’ time as he rehabilitates the knee. So best case scenario, there’s a pathway for him to ramp up late this month, but his actual return could take longer.
It’s not surprising that the halfcourt offense has suffered in the wake of losing Young. Per the NBA’s tracking powered by Synergy, the 22.3% of the Hawks’ offensive possessions are transition — fourth in the league — and they log a 117 offensive rating from these possessions. For the remaining 77.7% of halfcourt possessions, their offensive rating is 114.7.
Since that fateful day in Brooklyn, Atlanta’s plan of attack has been to grab and go whenever possible. Jalen Johnson is often seen leading the break after securing a defensive rebound or forcing a turnover, and they’ve done major damage in those situations.
But lately, it’s been hard to generate those stops or live ball takeaways. In their past four games, they’ve surrendered a 121.3 defensive rating (per basketball-reference) and have only forced five steals per contest over that span. Compare that to a 111.3 defensive rating and 9.5 steals per game in all games prior to this stretch.
It’s clear the Hawks could use an injection of something — or someone — to recharge the defense and turn that defense into easier offense for the Hawks down their star point guard.
Third-year player Mouhamed Gueye has been a nice story since being drafted in the second round out of Washington State. He has worked his way past some nasty back injuries to contribute to the squad in big moments. And while he flashes some ability to stretch the floor and rim run, his defense is the real area where he’s been able to turn heads.
As Hassan wrote for us last week, his rim protection ranks among the NBA’s upper echelon. Gueye holds opponents shooting inside the restricted area to -15.7 percentage points fewer than they normally shoot there (i.e. from shooting 68.4% normally to 52.6% when defended by Gueye). That figure ranks second on the team behind Kristaps Porzingis, excluding the low minutes of N’Faly Dante.
Gueye is also contributing 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions and 1.1 steals per 100 possessions, things that can lead to runouts for easy points. His ability to play the 4 or the 5 in a variety of different positions is also valuable in an ever-changing NBA when playing two or even three big men in the same frontcourt is en vogue.
Defense takes a commitment from all five players on the floor to do their jobs, of course. It’s rare that one player can prop up a bad foundation. But it’s becoming more and more obvious that Gueye is someone that can more than merely contribute to a unit that desires to finish with a top-half defensive rating for the first time since 2016-17. He could raise the defensive ceiling.
The Hawks have tried to form an identity as a long, harassing, switchable defense, doubling down minus their 6’1”, offensively slanted guard. Gueye, who stands in at 6’11 with a 7’3” wingspan, would seem to fit this vision. He can set the tone, deny and deter easy shots near the rim, and even switch out to perimeter players and hold his own
But to date, he’s only played 256 minutes total — 16 minutes per game — despite being available for every contest. And this is despite starting center Kristaps Porzingis missing six out of 16 possible games due to injury or rest.
Yes, the Hawks have more than treaded water at 9-7. But after a strong start culminating in a strong 4-0 Western Conference road trip, bad habits plagued the team as they sought to break through from good to great.
Against a bruising Detroit Pistons squad on Tuesday, the Hawks could not find a way to corral Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, two brawny big men who had their way in the paint. They lost the points in the paint battle 66-50 as part of a 122-110 loss.
Mouhamed Gueye, however, was able to flash some fortitude against the center duo:
Then on Thursday, Gueye was reduced to just four minutes of playing time with Kristaps Porzingis returning to the lineup. The Hawks proceeded to give up 135 points to a shorthanded Spurs in a completely lackadaisical defensive performance.
Gueye got his in his four minutes, though:
“Well, he’s playing behind Jalen Johnson who’s a pretty good player,” head coach Quin Snyder had to say after the Pistons game when asked about Gueye’s minutes down the stretch. “He was the Player of the Week last week. And that takes nothing away from Mo. The other guy that’s out there, Onyeka, has played really well for us.”
Even if Gueye is fourth on the big man pecking order, there is an opportunity to open up more minutes for him. It’s clear Jalen Johnson has struggled defensively to begin the season (although he’s more than made up for it on the offensive end). Pushing Johnson to the 3 on occasion can simplify his defensive responsibilities and allow Gueye to patrol the backline.
Yes, Gueye has limitations on offense, but he’s certainly not alone among rotation players in that regard. Yes, Gueye is young and inexperienced, but this the third youngest team in the league and there’s only one way to get the requisite playing experience.
It’s time for the Hawks to put aside the idea of being a great halfcourt offensive team until the return of Young and embrace grinding out games. That takes defending with tenacity, limiting teams to one or fewer shots a possession, and getting out in the open court. Mo Gueye with his 12 rebounds and 2.9 stocks (steals plus blocks) per 100 possessions can be a real asset toward these ends.
After a listless two, well really four, games on defense, the Hawks need a kick in the rear. They need a wakeup call to recommit to the less glamourous side of the floor.
It’s as plain as day: the Atlanta Hawks need mo’ Gueye.
