Many Cubs fans were happy when the team acquired Clay Holmes (and Tyrone Taylor) from the Mets for Jefferson Rojas. Even though Rojas was a top Cubs prospect, Holmes seemed a really good fit for the Cubs as a ground-ball pitcher coming to a team with elite infield defense.
It didn’t work, obviously. Holmes did make several good starts, but got hit hard in others and overall, his 4.25 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in nine starts didn’t come close to what he had done with the Mets, either last year or this year.
Earlier this month, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic took a look at what happened. He quoted Cubs manager Craig Counsell:
Leading into the playoffs, Cubs manager Craig Counsell framed Holmes’ performance this way: “The walks are what we got to limit.”
“It’s a different at-bat against left-handed hitters,” Counsell said. “That’s where the walks are going, left-handed hitters. That’s important, something we got to keep an eye on. He can get himself out of stuff with the sinker. We see that for sure. But the free passes, we got to lower that.”
Holmes’ walk rate was up significantly with the Cubs. It was 8.4 percent in the nine starts he made with the Mets before an injury put him out for almost three months. With the Cubs, Holmes’ walk rate was 11.8 percent. Even getting himself “out of stuff with his sinker” isn’t going to help when you’re putting so many runners on base. Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer was also quoted in Mooney’s article:
“How much of that was because he came back from injury?” Hoyer said. “How much of that was just the length of the season? Obviously, he wasn’t pitching his best baseball towards the end. Not just with Clay, I think that’s one of the biggest challenges in these jobs, getting everything synced up right to go into the postseason.”
So, there are a lot of unknowns about Holmes as player and team turn the page to 2027. Holmes has a $12 million player option for next year. He made $13 million in 2026. It’s entirely possible that Holmes exercises that option, coming off a not-great year in which he was injured (though the injury was not arm-related).
Holmes turns 34 in March. For $12 million, he might not be a bad fourth or fifth starter. If Holmes declines the option, though, would you be willing to sign him for around that amount? Or less? Or just let him walk?
