The modern NBA is a fast-tempo, skill-based league. Gone is the era of hulking seven-footers camping in the paint and dribble-heavy shooting guards eating 15 seconds of the shot clock for an isolation attempt. The ball moves quickly in today’s game, particularly on the perimeter.
The NBA has caught up to the scoring quirk that statisticians highlighted the minute the three-point arc got adopted back in 1979-80: a long-distance shot gives you half again as many points as a normal one. Hitting 33% from
the arc generates the same amount of points as shooting 50% inside it. Four decades later, distance shooting is one of the most prized skills in the league. Power forwards don’t get along without it; centers seldom do.
That leads into today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag question nicely:
Dave,
I hear the same thing over and over again. The Blazers have got to get shooters. Is there any way to beat the system without becoming a heavy 3PT team? Can’t we get a coach who devises a system that doesn’t require heaving quick shots from long range?
James
The short answer is no. The statistical advantage is too much.
The league median for three-point shooting this season was right around 36%. That equates to a 54% shooting percentage on two-pointers. We can shave a little off because free throws exist. Some two-point shots actually yield three-point plays. But the reality is still grim.
18 of 30 NBA teams did shoot 54% or greater last season inside the arc. That appears to be good news. But that accounts for the whole offense, assuming the existence of three-point shooters alongside inside scorers. As soon as you take away the long ball, presuming an overreliance on inside shooting, percentages plummet.
None of the top eight two-point scoring teams in the league averaged a top-ten shooting percentage. They were all mediocre to bad. (We can go further. Only 5 of the 15 teams above the two-point scoring median finished in the top ten in two-point shooting percentage.) When offenses go paint-heavy, defenses simply pack it inside and prevent clean shots. Success close to the basket in the modern NBA pretty much requires a credible threat at the arc. Otherwise the shots come too crowded and take too long to allow an offense to keep up with the faster-paced, more liberal shooting teams.
The imbalance is fairly significant between good three-point shooting teams and poor ones. Volume of three-point shots attempted doesn’t matter as much; anybody can take a lot of them. Percentage counts. 14 of the top 16 three-point percentage teams in the league made the Play-In or Playoffs this year. The Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards were the only exceptions. Conversely, only 7 of the 14 worst three-point shooting teams made the Play-In or Playoffs, a much worse success rate. And the other 7 were all pretty much bottom feeders.
You don’t have to have a brilliant three-point attack to succeed in the NBA. San Antonio made it to the Finals this year from the 14th position, Cleveland to the Conference Finals with the 20th-best percentage. But three-pointers sure make the game easier. I’m pretty comfortable saying you can’t stink and still succeed at a high level without other mitigating circumstances. (Think: Wembanyama-type circumstances.) This going to be true in pretty much any system a coach installs. You can change the players and the way they move, but you can’t overcome the fact that all that movement is happening in the same space, the place the defense has to move least in order to cover.
So yeah, one way or another the Blazers will need to develop more three-point shooting if they want to be taken seriously. 34.1% and a 28th-place finish won’t cut it. They may not need to rise to Denver Nuggets level (39.6% for the season, and how the hell did they do that?) but they’d better get closer to the league average. Otherwise it’s like playing offense with an anchor chained to your leg. No matter how quick, big, or strong you are, eventually that’s going to catch up with you.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com if you want it considered. We’ll try to answer as many as possible!
