The 2-6 New York Giants host the 5-3 San Francisco 49ers in a Week 9 matchup at MetLife Stadium. The 49ers are looking to rebound after a 26-15 loss to the Houston Texans in Week 8, a setback that dropped them to third place in the NFC West. For the Giants, injuries continue to pile up, as running back Cam Skattebo joins star rookie Malik Nabers on injured reserve. FanDuel Sportsbook has New York listed as 2.5-point home underdogs, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.
Robert Saleh’s defense was
also bitten by the injury bug. Star linebacker Fred Warner joined edge defender Nick Bosa on injured reserve after Week 6. Starters Jordan Elliott (DT), Sam Okuyinonu (edge), and Dee Winters (LB) are also dealing with injuries, as are Yetur Gross-Matos (edge) and Bryce Huff (edge). On the other side of the football, though, Brock Purdy may return to the starting lineup for Kyle Shanahan.
49ers statistics
Saleh’s return to the 49ers has stabilized the defensive unit amid a rash of consequential injuries. San Francisco ranks eighth in the NFL, allowing just 20.5 points per game. The unit also ranks eighth in red zone touchdown percentage, with a 52% touchdown allowed rate. For reference, the Giants are 27th with a 68% red zone touchdown rate.
The 49ers do, however, allow yards; they’re 22nd in yards allowed (337.1 yards per game). They allow a third down conversion on 38.95% of attempts, which ranks 19th in the NFL. The 49ers allow 107.9 rushing yards per game (15th in the NFL) and 229.3 passing yards per game (22nd in the NFL).
Saleh has mostly rushed four in 2025, blitzing on just 17.6% of defensive snaps, which ranks fifth lowest in the NFL. Their ability to generate pressure is the lowest in the NFL (10.8% pressure rate). The lack of pressure is one of the most significant defensive issues, which is compounded by the injuries.
49ers personnel
The 49ers front office made a midseason move this week to strengthen their pass rush, acquiring physical edge rusher Keion White from the New England Patriots in exchange for a sixth-round pick. It was much needed for Saleh’s current personnel. White, who recorded five sacks and 45 pressures last season, had seen a reduced role in Mike Vrabel’s defense this year.
He’ll make his San Francisco debut in Week 9 against the Giants. White joins rookie edge Mykel Williams, the 11th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, who has already posted 16 pressures and a sack through eight games. Bryce Huff, who missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury, may miss Week 9. Huff does lead the 49ers with 24 pressures and four sacks.
The 49ers are injured along their front seven. Rookie defensive lineman Alfred Collins joins Kevin Givens and Kalia Davis on the defensive line, with Sam Okuayinonu and Robert Beal Jr. playing most of the EDGE snaps behind Williams and Trevis Gipson due to the injuries.
Dee Winters, who is day-to-day with a knee injury, just surpassed Warner in total tackles (54). If Winters can’t go, second-year seventh-round pick, Tatum Bethune, will be the primary linebacker next to Curtis Robinson and Luke Gifford; Bethune started the last two games since Warner’s injury.
Saleh may opt to use lighter packages due to the linebacker injuries, which could play into the Giants’ hands — more on that later. San Francisco has an aggressive, fast safety group that consists of Ji’Ayir Brown and Malik Mustapha, with Upton Stout as a quality young slot defender.
Deommodore Lenior and Renardo Green are the starting cornerbacks. Green is allowing an impressive 45.2% completion rate with three passes defensed, and Lenior 62.9% with an interception, two passes defended, and a touchdown surrendered.
The matchup
It will be interesting to see how Saleh matches the Giants’ 12 personnel package if Winters misses the game. I would expect more three-safety looks with rookie nickel Upton Stout on the field more often, but 12 personnel may force the 49ers to stay heavier. However, I expect Saleh to use a lot of Stout, Malik Mustapha, and Ji’Ayir Brown on the field at once, even against the Giants’ 12 personnel, unless New York can prove effective running the football with Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary.
The Texans sprung a 50-yard catch to running back Woody Marks that exposed some of the injuries on the 49ers’ defense. They also used a lot of 3×1 Bunch sets to confuse the match defense. I expect Brian Daboll to employ a similar approach from 12 personnel or even their 11 personnel package in more obvious passing situations.
The Giants’ tackles, Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor, should not be challenged much by this beat-up 49ers pass rush, depending on the severity of Eluemunor’s injuries. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan praised Jaxson Dart:
Robert Saleh had something to say about Dart as well:
Dart’s ability to keep plays alive should not be impeded by a defense that doesn’t blitz, nor should the current edge defenders be able to defeat Thomas and Eluemunor. The Giants should continue to diversify their rushing attack while utilizing play-action and RPO plays. The Giants’ offense should be able to move the football.
The Texans, who have struggled offensively all season, put 475 yards on the 49ers, and now San Francisco travels to New York.
Final thoughts
The Giants’ offense should move the football against this iteration of Saleh’s defense. The 49ers are even more beat up than the Giants on the defensive side of the football, and Jaxson Dart, along with a rushing attack led by Tyrone Tracy Jr., should put points on the board. I am nervous, though, about the Giants’ inability to stop the run against the San Francisco 49ers — a rushing attack devised by Kyle Shanahan with Christian McCaffrey toting the rock and George Kittle blocking. With that said, I believe this will be an exciting game for the Giants’ offense with a decent amount of points scored. I have the Giants finding a way to win in close games.
