Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year, we ask questions of the most plugged-in
Kansas City Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.Earlier this week, we asked you how much money you’d be comfortable giving Jac Caglianone in a theoretical contract extension:
I promised you when I asked the question that I had done the math and come to my own conclusion. I’ll share that here first. So, first I estimated
how much he might get through arbitration, if he keeps playing as well as he has this year. I used multiple similar players to come up with these numbers:
2027 (pre-arb): $1 million
2o28 (pre-arb): $1 million
2029 (arb 1): $5 million
2030 (arb 2): $13 million
2031 (arb 3): $18 million (this could be a bit lower if he is 1B/DH only by now)
That would pay him about $38 million over the next five seasons. Round it up to $40 for simplicity’s sake. He would hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season in 2032. I suspect by that point, regardless of where he has played for his career up until then, he will be considered a 1B/DH and not an outfielder. Still, on the open market at 29, he could make a lot of money if he even consistently hits as well as he has this year, to say nothing of how much better he could still get.
So, I think to buy out a couple of those free agent years, you’re probably looking at at least $20 million. That would give you 7 years/$80 million. I think if the Royals can lock him into that, they should do it yesterday. I’d go to 7/$90 million without blinking, especially if a chunk of that could be shifted into playing time and/or All-Star Appearance incentives. This is why these early extension deals always look so club-friendly compared to free agent contracts. The early money for these guys is just so low compared to what they can command on the open market.
Royals fans, you surprised me, because more than one-third of y’all are willing to give him $140 million for those seven years. Even if we were talking eight years, I don’t think the Royals should necessarily have to top $120 million. The comparison of Kevin McGonigle is important here because Kevin has been an equal hitter to Jac while playing better defense (higher up the defensive spectrum, too) and running the bases better. This is similar to the reason Jac is never going to get paid as much as Bobby Witt Jr. He and Bobby have hit about as well as each other this year, but Bobby does everything else so much better.
Another quarter of you were willing to give him $15 million a year, and that seems closer. Though even that would be 7/$105. I wouldn’t complain if the Royals did that deal, but it’s also not my money. Though they do need to consider what the salary floor or Competitive Integrity Tax might force them to do starting next season.
I think the 19% of you who believe the Royals should just wait and see are going to be disappointed, unless you’re hoping to wait and see Jac leave after the 2031 season. These extensions are a give-and-take of offering security to players in order to pay less later. There comes a point where the security is not worth the losses incurred by not just going to free agency. The Royals got to Bobby just before it was too late, and they still had to pay an incredible sum to get it done. If they had waited until even partway through that third season (his MVP-runner-up 2024) they wouldn’t have been able to keep him for even the amount they gave him.
If the Royals intend to extend Caglianone, this is the time to get it done. Here’s hoping they celebrate the completion of the next step of their stadium deal by keeping our large Italian little brother in town for the long term.
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