When | 7:30 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, MO.
TV | ESPN2
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 54.6% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (17-7, 7-4 SEC)
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 8.0 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.8 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.2 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.2 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.8 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 10.5 PPG)
Texas (15-9, 6-5 SEC)
F: Camden Heide (JR, 7.2 PPG)
C: Matas Vokietaitis (SO, 15.3 PPG)
G: Jordan Pope (SR, 12.5 PPG)
G: Dailyn Swan (JR, 17.3 PPG)
G: Tramon Mark (SR, 13.4 PPG)
Notable
Sixth Man: Chendall Weaver (SR, 6.4 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Texas: a team sitting right on the bubble
The Longhorns have a new leader at the helm this season in Sean Miller. A storied NCAA coach, he started at Xavier before heading to Arizona. Where, yes, the wheels fell off the bus after an FBI investigation was launched into the program and then the NCAA came down with recruiting violations. Then, Miller went back to Xavier and brought another two NCAA tournament appearances. Now, he’s landed another big job in Texas.
Texas has been on a rollercoaster of a few years and they’ve placed full hope in Miller being able to right the ship.
Even with a new coach, the Longhorns were able to keep four returning players. Tramon Mark is currently in his final season as a Longhorn and currently averaging north of 13 points per game. He’s bounced around a few teams in the portal but found his footing in Texas.
Another returner alongside Mark is Jordan Pope. He’s been efficient offensively for the Longhorns and helped in big time games, but Miller hasn’t been shy in calling his star out.
Texas ultimately walked away with a win against South Carolina but Pope finished with a season-low three points.
“So we need more from him,” said Miller. “And he’s a senior …. This is it …. Jordan has to learn from failure, right? I’ve talked about it before. Own it.”
The two guards are the only returners in the starting lineup but Chendall Weaver has also shown importance in a sixth-man spot.
In the portal, the Longhorns made some moves but only ranked 7th in the SEC in EvanMiya.com’s ranked poll of the classes. Coming over from Xavier alongside Miller was Dailyn Swain. Slotting into the starting lineup, the guard continues to display his raw athleticism.
He currently leads the team with over 17 points as well as over seven rebounds per game. He’s also dangerous in the paint shooting 57 percent from field goal range and over 30 percent from beyond the arc.
Not many players on the Texas team have a better field goal percentage besides fellow newcomers Camden Heide, tied at 57.4 percent, and Matas Vokietaitis, who leads the team with a 64.4 success rate.
As a team, the Longhorns average around 85.5 points per game compared to Mizzou’s 80.5. However, they allow just about a point more than Mizzou in regards to its opponents.
Texas also sits tied at second in the conference, with Mizzou, for field goal percentage at 49.4 percent. The high-scoring capabilities of the offense have led to big time wins against ranked teams that have stacked the resume.
The Longhorns comes to Mizzou Arena on a three game win streak. Overall, they hold a 6-5 conference record with wins against then No. 13 Alabama, No. 10 Vanderbilt and No. 21 Georgia. Just like Mizzou, the team has been rolling as of late and to insert themselves into the March conversation they will hungrily want this win.
3 Keys to the Game
Win the Paint/Control the Boards
A good ole’ two in one here?
The path to a win starts within the paint. Against the Aggies, Mizzou was able to control the game inside and were beat up outside the perimeter. Luckily for the Tigers, the Longhorns aren’t as lethal from three as the other Texas team.
In its most recent victories, Mizzou has been as its best when they have controlled scoring in the paint. Against A&M the Tigers scored 56 points in the paint, following a recent trend of outscoring their opponents by more than 20 inside. By dominating here, they force defenses to collapse and then open up perimeter shots.
Against a physical team this Saturday, establishing interior presence earlier will be key. If they can dictate play around the rim as they’ve been doing recently, they can control the tempo and are much closer to a win.
It’s also time to continue to limit second chance opportunities. On Wednesday night, the Tigers only allowed their opponents to knock down TWO second chance points.
Against both South Carolina and Texas A&M, the Tigers have been able to control the rebounding battle (something I didn’t know I’d be saying at the start of the year). However, Texas enters the match with a slight advantage in rebounding average. So nearly forty rebonds may not be possible again but this will be an avenue they will need to take advantage of for a win.
Limit Turnovers
Another highlight area for the Tigers recently was only allowing 11 points off turnovers for the Aggies.
Protecting the basketball hasn’t always been the strong suit of Mizzou all season. Additionally, it’s a windy road once the turnovers become constant in a game. The team tends to lose its fitting and the win seems further and further out of reach.
The Tigers will need to look to force Texas to earn each basket which will be vital.
Additionally, Texas ranks atop the SEC (with Mizzou) in field goal percentage at 49 percent. They will be looking to light the lamp in the paint so any extra points can shut the Tigers down.
Free Throws
Yes, it’s repitive, but its true.
Especially against a Longhorn crew who knocks down north of 74 percent of its free throw attempts. They’ll look to get to the line constantly against a highly aggressive Mizzou team.
Texas enters the game as one of the top five teams in the country in getting to the free throw line. According to teamrankings, the Longhorns reach the stripe around 27 times per game. A major area where they will hold an advantage to sneak points away from the home team.
On the flip side, Mizzou isn’t too hot from the charity stripe. They sit at the very bottom of the SEC in free throw percentage and are looking to match a program low this year, yikes. Missed free throws have haunted a few of potential Mizzou wins this year.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 80 – Texas 74
This could be a bloodbath. The Longhorns are entering a soldout Mizzou Arena to face a team fighting just as angrily for a spot in the conference tournament. Plus, on paper, these teams are pretty equal. They share similar success rates from the field, three-pointers and both teams are bringing in three game win-streaks into the match. A win for either team will hold a lot of meaning for who can match up in the “Last Four In” category currently. However, I think I lean towards home field advantage here. If Mizzou can use its height to their advantage and work the paint while limiting turnovers, it should end an a Tiger win. Though, they will want to stay disciplined and keep Texas off the free throw line.
