Last week ATS: 9-6 (6-1 National, 3-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 115-103 (53-51 National, 62-52 B1G)
We head into the final week of the college football regular season on the heels of another positive week. I guess I learned my lesson about picking against the Buckeyes, since Ohio State squeaked out a cover
last week against Rutgers.
This week there is a ton of action spread over Friday and Saturday. Obviously the main course takes place at noon on Saturday in Ann Arbor, but there are a bunch of other games that have playoff implications. I’ve included the majority of them in this week’s picks as we try and put together another strong week ahead of next week’s conference championship games.
National Games
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2.5) v. No. 16 Texas – Friday 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
It’s hard to see Texas A&M missing out on the playoff with a loss here, while Texas can state their case for a spot in the CFP with a win over the Aggies. Even though the Longhorns lost to Florida, they can also say two of their losses came on the road to top-four teams in the country.
Texas rebounded from their loss to Georgia with a dominant performance against Arkansas that saw Arch Manning throw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns.
I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Texas A&M. They had the wild comeback against South Carolina, but it’s not like the Gamecocks are actually any good. Aside from the win at Notre Dame early in the season, what have the Aggies actually done? Four of their wins have come against teams that fired their head coach at some point this season.
I think the Longhorns hand Texas A&M and Marcel Reed their first loss of the season.
Texas 31, Texas A&M 24
No. 12 Miami (FL) (-6.5) v. No. 22 Pitt – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
I guess I didn’t put enough respect on Pitt’s name last week when I picked Georgia Tech to beat the Panthers. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has been solid since taking over as starter. Last week Heintschel threw a couple touchdowns, while running Ja’Kyrian Turner did a lot of the heavy lifting, rushing for 201 yards against the Yellow Jackets.
The Panthers are one of the hotter teams in the country, having won six of their last seven games.
I’ll be honest, I’m hoping Pitt ends up winning this game here so we don’t have to hear any more arguments about why Miami shouldn’t be in the playoff, especially after beating Notre Dame to start the season. This is one of those games that Mario Cristobal has to be soiling himself to blow. Not only is Cristobal is terrible in big games later in the season, Carson Beck folds when the pressure is turned up.
Just look at the loss to Louisville when Beck threw 39 interceptions. I’ll take the Panthers to spring the upset in chilly conditions in Pittsburgh.
Pitt 30, Miami (FL) 27
No. 14 Vanderbilt v. No. 19 Tennessee (-2.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
If somebody told you before the season Vanderbilt had a shot at making the playoff, you would have thought they needed to be in a padded room. The Commodores certainly have a case to be a part of this year’s CFP with their only two losses coming to Alabama and Texas.
Diego Pavia does a little bit of everything for Vanderbilt, and you know this is the type of game he was built for. Just imagine Pavia leading his team into Neyland and beating Vandy’s in-state rival to eliminate the Volunteers from the playoff.
While this year’s Tennessee team isn’t quite as good as last year’s group, they are still a tough team to beat. I just don’t know if I trust Joey Aguilar over Pavia here. Aguilar has had an issue with turnovers this season, tossing 10 interceptions. Plus, it’s not like Neyland Stadium is a fortress since both Georgia and Oklahoma came into Knoxville and won.
Vanderbilt forces some turnovers and Pavia and the offense capitalize on the momentum to snap a six-game losing streak against the Volunteers.
Vanderbilt 34, Tennessee 30
B1G Games
No. 2 Indiana (-28.5) v. Purdue – Friday 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Both Indiana and Purdue come into this Hoosier State battle fresh after having last week off. Even though it hasn’t translated into wins, the Boilermakers have been pesky this year. Last season Indiana embarrassed Purdue in Bloomington 66-0.
This is a different Boilermaker squad this year. Barry Odom has Purdue playing hard even though they don’t have a lot to play for.
This reminds me a lot of Ohio State’s game a few weeks ago. Indiana doesn’t have a lot to prove here. The goal for the Hoosiers is to stay healthy and move on to next week’s Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. I could see this game playing a lot like Indiana’s wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, where they won by 24 and 25 points.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza gets his numbers but Purdue keeps the final score inside the number.
Indiana 38, Purdue 14
No. 6 Oregon (-6.5) v. Washington – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Oregon has to be a team nobody wants to play in the playoff. The Ducks have unfinished business after losing to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks earned their 10th win of the season after beating USC 42-27 in Eugene last week.
The scary thing is the Oregon offense isn’t even fully healthy, as standout freshman receiver Dakorien Moore has missed the last few games because of injury.
Speaking of injuries, Washington is also dealing with some. Running back Jonah Coleman was limited last week, while top wide receiver Denzel Boston hasn’t played in the last two games. Aside from the win over Illinois, who was ranked at the time, the Huskies haven’t been good against better competition this season.
I’m not convinced Washington has enough to keep things within a touchdown against an Oregon team who still has an outside shot at making the Big Ten Championship Game.
Oregon 37, Washington 23
No. 1 Ohio State (-10.5) v. No. 15 Michigan – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
All the pressure is on Ohio State in this game. The Buckeyes have lost their last four meetings with the Wolverines. Even though Ohio State was able to win the national championship last season, it almost felt like it wasn’t good enough since they lost to Michigan in Columbus.
Then there are the injuries concerns at wide receiver. At least Buckeye Nation should be able to breathe a little easier when Jeremiah Smith said earlier this week he is good to go for Saturday. I’d be surprised if Carnell Tate didn’t play, either.
Sitting Tate out the last three games feels a bit more precautionary. If Ohio State hadn’t been playing three of the worst teams in the Big Ten then Tate likely would have been on the field.
Michigan knows if they beat Ohio State for a fifth straight season then the Wolverines are headed to the playoff. After some close calls against Purdue and Northwestern, Michigan handled their business last week against Maryland in College Park.
Bryce Underwood has been alright in his freshman season, I just don’t think he has lived up to the hype yet. The Wolverines are also banged up at running back after Justice Haynes has already been ruled out for the rest of the year, while Jordan Marshall was injured against Northwestern and didn’t play last week.
Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has to be licking his chops while putting together a game plan for Underwood and the Michigan offense. I can see Arvell Reese having a big game this week after he has been pretty quiet over the last three games.
This also feels like a game where Caleb Downs shows why he is one of the best defensive players in the country. I know Michigan’s defense has the talent to get after Julian Sayin, but the Buckeye quarterback has been cool as can be under pressure all season.
Ryan Day finally snaps his losing streak against That Team Up North.
Ohio State 28, Michigan 13
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 7 Ole Miss (-7.5) v. Mississippi State – Friday 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Ole Miss 38 , Mississippi State 34
No. 14 Utah (-11.5) v. Kansas – Friday 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Utah 41, Kansas 17
No. 4 Georgia (-13.5) v. No. 23 Georgia Tech – Friday 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Georgia 33, Georgia Tech 23
UCF v. No. 11 BYU (-17.5) – 1:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
BYU 34, UCF 14
LSU v. No. 8 Oklahoma (-10.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Oklahoma 31, LSU 13
No. 10 Alabama (-5.5) v. Auburn – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Alabama 30, Auburn 20
B1G
Iowa (-6.5) v. Nebraska – Friday 12:00 p.m. ET – CBS
Iowa 23, Nebraska 14
Wisconsin v. Minnesota (-1.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Minnesota 17, Wisconsin 13
Penn State (-13.5) v. Rutgers – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Penn State 37, Rutgers 21
UCLA v. No. 17 USC (-21.5) – 4:30 p.m. ET – NBC
USC 44, UCLA 17
Maryland v. Michigan State (-3.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Maryland 28, Michigan State 24
Northwestern v. Illinois (-6.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Illinois 31, Northwestern 21
