No one realistically expected Pat Fitzgerald to turn the Michigan State Spartans around in Year One. The Michigan Wolverines were forced into a coaching search, which theoretically gives Kyle Whittingham some cushion. Yet despite these differing circumstances, neither fanbase is overjoyed after a couple months under a new regime, as both rivals are under .500 in conference play.
Bystanders wondered if this rivalry was getting too toxic, with the animosity on fullest display during the 2022 tunnel
incident. Well, perhaps the solution was having both programs bottom out, as neither is playing with the fire of before. Objectively, this game simply feels much more important — to both sides — when Michigan has something to play for.
But now, here we are. Michigan is ostensibly playing for a bowl, while State is playing for pride, as usual. Both coaches are getting their first taste of the rivalry and surely have had this date circled on the calendar, but the excitement on this game is severely muted when both teams are so out of the national picture. A loss would be terrible, so the Wolverines will need to show up, but this rivalry has seen better days.
Michigan State (2-6, 0-5) at Michigan (5-3, 2-3)
Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: Peacock
The Wolverines have taken four straight in this rivalry, though in two very different varieties. 2022 and 2023 featured future Big Ten champions that took care of business, allowing a combined seven points. The next two years were much uglier contests, with only the 2025 Michigan team ranked (just barely, at No. 25) amongst the four squads. Interestingly (annoyingly?), all four of those games were played at night as well.
Offense: Take it and run
It may just have been Rutgers, but Tommy Carr did everything fans have been longing for from a quarterback last weekend: 22-for-27 passing, 266 yards through the air, 54 more on the ground, three total touchdowns. There still are some missed passes (e.g. deep shots to Andrew Marsh), but the offense seems to finally be clicking, especially with Carr’s legs.
Everyone else’s legs, however, are apparently not trustworthy. This speaks way more to Jason Beck than the backs themselves, but the Wolverines are 98th in rushing yards per game and 112th in YPC with no reprieve in sight. The 3.58 YPC against an abysmal run defense was probably the final straw for any hope that Beck will make real changes, and the fact that much of that production came from Carr scrambles speaks volumes.
Run defense has been a calling card for the Spartans — and Fitzgerald — but this year has been unconvincing, ranking just 79th in YPC. Though the secondary ranks worse, relatively, on the season (91st in YPA), Big Ten opponents have found success in both avenues, with Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Illinois combining for eight passing touchdowns and then Northwestern and UCLA rushing for five scores the past two weeks.
For the Wolverines, I think this just means leaning into whatever is working. Carr was more clinical than lethal, but at this point the mid-range passing game seems more effective than the run game, which is a wild thing to say. I know SP+ still puts the State defense (No. 68) ahead of the Michigan offense (No. 87), but hopefully the quarterback change is enough to make this more of a toss-up.
Defense: The one good unit
Michigan offense: bad. Michigan State defense: mediocre. Michigan State offense: bad. Michigan defense: elite. That might be the story of how this game goes, as the Wolverines should be able to score (at least a little), but the same cannot be said for the Spartans. Perhaps Michigan’s odd defensive performance last weekend gives the State offense a little bit of hope, though it mostly felt like just a couple unfortunate plays against Rutgers.
State is bottom-10 nationally at 3.14 YPC with little success outside of the win over Eastern and that strange overtime defeat to Illinois. Cam Edwards actually started pretty well, but got injured in September and is now out for the year. That put Jaziun Patterson as the top back, but he too got hurt, leaving Kenneth Williams as the main option against UCLA (17 rushes, 54 yards).
Meanwhile, quarterback Alessio Milivojevic also missed the UCLA game and his alternates threw for a combined 109 yards against the Bruins, combining for one touchdown and two interceptions. While Milivojevic did have two of his better outings in his most recent games, the sophomore is not an intimidating presence and is not a threat with his legs, and his questionable status might mean his production is limited if he does play.
This is a long-winded way of saying that State has some health issues on offense, which in all likelihood does not even matter. The Michigan defense is far and away the best of the four units in this game, to the extent that this is likely the group that will singlehandedly insure the outcome. Trick plays and scripted drives are not enough to overcome this imbalance.
Rotten starts
Fitzgerald has reset the panic clock in East Lansing, with the fanbase willing to be patient as the program tries to climb its way back to the middle of the conference. Obviously, six straight losses (and counting) is never a great thing, but after the Jonathan Smith era, I suppose this transition cost is acceptable for the first season under the new regime.
Whittingham has somehow raised the panic level, despite Michigan’s coaching transition coming completely involuntarily. It is hard to believe that just three seasons ago this program was on the top of the sport; now it is hardly a factor in the playoff conversation. The veteran coach has made some questionable decisions thus far — primarily off the field — and this fanbase is hard to satisfy.
All of that being said…I would still much rather be Michigan. As bad as this season has been, the Wolverines are clearly a better football team than the Spartans. Relative to expectations, the conversation splits, but I still think that Michigan fans will be the happier ones at the end of the year. That statement will not be true, however, if the Wolverines stumble this Saturday. That makes this game meaningful even if every other circumstance points to it not being so.
