42 is quite the number. I’ve never been a huge fan of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, though I did quite enjoy the movie from (checks his notes, shakes his head, gets a little sad) 20 YEARS AGO?
Man, I really am getting old. While I’m not sure that the script was the best version, the cast was just killer. Sam Rockwell, Alan Rickman, Martin Freeman, Mos Def, and Zooey Deschanel? The only explanation I have for it bombing is that American cinema-goers just weren’t, and maybe never will be, ready for Douglas Adams’, but I digress.
When it comes to Iowa football, at least in the context of Wisconsin, 42 the number of points that the Hawkeyes managed, somehow, to put on the board against Luke Fickell’s Dairy-Raid Badgers last year. The 42-10 drubbing inside the friendly confines of Kinnick Stadium marked Iowa’s largest margin of victory over Wisconsin since 1968. I’ve seen a lot of Iowa wins over Wisconsin (and a lot of losses as well) and that game last year was definitely a bright spot. I mean, 5 touchdowns in one game from an Iowa offense? The only thing missing was a long TD run from KJ2.
This game has been circled on Wiscy’s calendar all year and looking at their schedule, it may be the most winnable game they will play until Washington comes to Camp Randall in November. Hell, the team has been doing 42 pushups at the end of each practice all season, so this might as well be their Super Bowl. Let’s see what the numbers have to say.
Offense
Iowa – 338.3 ypg (137.8 passing, 200.5 rushing), 33.0 ppg
Wisconsin – 277.2 ypg (162.4 passing, 114.8 rushing), 19.6 ppg
Tim Lester’s offense showed real signs of life against Rutgers, putting up 38 points and 346 yards in a game where Mark Gronowski finally looked comfortable throwing the football. Indiana’s elite defense brought them back down to earth, but right up to the point that Gron left the game it felt like Iowa was in the driver’s seat. Gronowski is listed as the starter as of now, but we know that Brown and Hecklinski split snaps with the 1’s 50-50 during the bye week, so it’s anybody’s guess as to who will take the majority of the snaps against the Badgers. Best case scenario, Gron guides the offense to a big lead and gets to spend the second half resting his knee.
Wisconsin’s offense, on the other hand, has been an utter disaster. The Badgers are now on their third-string quarterback, Hunter Simmons. Simmons, a graduate transfer from Southern Illinois, completed 18-of-29 for 177 yards with an interception in his first start , leading the Badgers on a touchdown drive on their opening possession against Michigan, but the offense completely stagnated after that, failing to score again until garbage time.
The lack of a running game is the story of Wisconsin’s recent fall from grace. Dilin Jones has been serviceable with 265 yards on the season, but this is a program that built its identity on 1,000-yard rushers and physical, downhill running. They’re averaging just 114.8 rushing yards per game – a number that would have been unthinkable during the Alvarez/Bielema/Chryst eras.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa – but the advantage degrades if Gronowski isn’t at 100%
Defense
Iowa – 233.5 ypg allowed (172.8 passing, 60.8 rushing), 14.5 ppg allowed
Wisconsin – 259.8 ypg allowed (177.8 passing, 82.0 rushing), 19.8 ppg allowed
Phil Parker’s defense has been the story of Iowa’s season thus far – for good or ill. Through the first three games, Iowa held opponents to just 178 yards per game and 10 points per contest, looking like the Hawkeye defenses we’ve come to expect. The unit took an uncharacteristic beating against Rutgers, allowing 28 points and 346 yards in a game where they couldn’t get off the field on third down, but bounced back against #11 Indiana holding the nation’s highest-scoring offense (54.8 ppg coming in) to just 20 points and forcing them into uncomfortable situations all day. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza finally looked human against Iowa’s aggressive scheme.
The Hawkeyes’ run defense has been particularly dominant all season, allowing just 60.8 yards per game on the ground and a microscopic 2.25 yards per carry. Max Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett have been very good off the edge, combining for six sacks. Iowa held Indiana’s potent rushing attack (308.8 ypg), to 153 yards (not counting the last drive which accounted for -49 yards on kneel downs and that ridiculous safety), and held the Hoosiers to 5/15 on third down.
Wisconsin’s defense is the program’s lone bright spot. The Badgers entered the Michigan game leading the nation in rushing defense, allowing just 50 yards per game on the ground and holding opponents to 2.11 yards per carry. That number got inflated a bit when Michigan’s Justice Haynes broke free for a 43-yard run on the opening drive and finished with 117 yards, but the run defense still showed up when it mattered. Darryl Peterson and the front seven have been outstanding, creating havoc in the backfield and keeping Wisconsin competitive in games where the offense provides zero help.
The question for Wisconsin is simple: how long can an elite defense keep them in games when the offense can’t stay on the field (a question Iowa fans are intimately familiar with)? Against Michigan, the Badgers’ defense had minimal time to rest due to the offense’s complete inability to sustain drives. Iowa will look to exploit this by controlling clock with the running game and making Wisconsin’s defense tired in the fourth quarter.
ADVANTAGE: Push – Iowa’s defense has been better overall, but Wisconsin’s run defense is legitimately elite. This could turn into a rock fight, especially if the offense can’t rely on Gronowski’s scrambling ability.
Special Teams
Over the last few years LeVar Woods’ special teams unit has been Iowa’s most consistent phase, though this year has brought a little more drama. Drew Stevens has converted 9-of-12 field goals this season (75.0%), but he’s hit a rough patch, missing attempts in three straight games (from 42, 40, and 38 yards). That missed 38-yarder against Indiana was particularly brutal (even if it was likely the result of a bad snap and a bad hold).
Rhys Dakin is averaging 43.0 ypp, which is solid but below his potential. The Aussie sophomore showed flashes with a career-high 65-yard bomb against Iowa State, but he’s been inconsistent – particularly evident in the Indiana game where his three punts averaged just 38 yards and the two blocked punts probably keep him awake at night. Still, Iowa’s improved offense has kept him off the field more than in recent seasons, which is a good sign.
The real star is Kaden Wetjen. The Jet Award winner leads the nation with a 33.6-yard punt return average and ranks seventh nationally with a 35.5-yard kickoff return average. Wetjen has two return touchdowns already this season, tying him for the most career kickoff return TDs in Iowa history. When he touches the ball, you hold your breath.
Wisconsin’s special teams have been solid but not spectacular. Nathanial Vakos has converted 3-of-5 field goals (60.0%), including a career-long 42-yarder against Miami (OH) and a 39-yarder late against Michigan. Atticus Bertrams has been outstanding in the punting game, averaging 43.8 yards per punt with nine punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Bertrams, like Dakin, is on the Ray Guy watchlist, so he’s no slouch.
Wisconsin’s return game has been inconsistent. Vinny Anthony II returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown against Alabama – showing he can be explosive – but his opportunities have been limited. Tyrell Henry provides a steady presence returning punts, but at around 8 yards per return, he’s not striking fear into coverage teams the way Wetjen does.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa – Wetjen’s explosiveness is the difference here.
Numbers to Watch
7 – Dilin Jones has been Wisconsin’s primary back, carrying 52 times for 217 yards (4.2 ypc) and two touchdowns. Jones showed his potential with 73 yards in the season opener, but he’s been bottled up lately, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry over the last two games. Against Iowa’s stout run defense (allowing 60.8 yards per game, 2.25 yards per carry), Jones needs to run with power and break tackles (and we all know Iowa hasn’t exactly been elite at tackling thus far).
8 – Vinny Anthony II had nine catches for 97 yards against Michigan and has been Hunter Simmons’ favorite target. Anthony also has a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown on his resume, showing he can create explosive plays. Against Iowa’s secondary – which has been vulnerable at times – Anthony needs to win his one-on-one matchups and create separation.
11 – The reliability of Mark Gronowski’s knee hangs over this game like a cloud that could either pass uneventfully or drop a tsunami’s worth of rain on the Iowa offense. He’s got more carries than any of Iowa’s RBs and a lot of them have converted 3rd downs. His passing has improved every week, but if his movement is limited it could change everything.
15 – Hunter Simmons wasn’t on Wisconsin’s roster when spring practice ended. He showed showed poise against Michigan, completing 18-of-29 for 177 yards with one interception. He’s a game manager – which is fine for Wisconsin’s system – but he has to avoid turnovers and make smart decisions under pressure. Iowa’s defense will bring heat, and Simmons needs to get the ball out quickly to and not force anything into coverage.
21 – Kaden Wetjen is a threat to go the distance almost every time he touches the ball, if Wisconsin is smart, they’ll limit his touches as much as possible, especially on kicks.
28 – Kamari Moulton has been Iowa’s bell-cow since coming back from injury that kept him out of 2 games. He’s averaging 5.46 ypc across three games and 7 yards per catch over the last two (if only that pass from Brown had been on the mark against Indiana). We’re going to need a solid performance from the backfield this week, and Moulton has been a shoelace away from breaking big runs multiple times this season.
45 – Max Llewellyn has been a terror off the edge with four sacks through five games. Llewellyn is physical, high-motor player with great length who can set the edge against the run and get after the quarterback. Against Hunter Simmons, who’s making just his second career FBS start, Llewellyn and Ethan Hurkett need to make life miserable. If Iowa’s defensive ends can collapse the pocket and force Simmons into quick, uncomfortable decisions, the Hawkeyes will have a huge advantage.
49 – Atticus Bertrams Iowa fans can appreciate a great punter more than most college football fans. Against Iowa field position will be crucial and the Badger’s will rely on Bertrams to pin the Hawkeyes deep whenever possible. He’s shown he can execute under pressure – including a 15-yard run on a fake punt against Penn State last year. If Wisconsin’s offense sputters (which seems likely), Bertrams will be busy, and he needs to be at his best.
99 – Darryl Peterson has been one of Wisconsin’s best defensive players with nine tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, and 12 quarterback pressures. If Peterson and his buddy Mason Reiger can get consistent pressure on Iowa’s QBs and force them into quick throws, Wisconsin’s defense can keep this game close. The Badgers’ front seven is legitimately good – they just need the offense to give them a chance.
Lines
Point Spread: Iowa -3.5
Over/Under: 35.5
Moneyline: Iowa -160, Wisconsin +135
Vegas has this one as a toss-up, and frankly, I can’t argue with the line. Iowa is a slight road favorite, which tells you everything you need to know about where these programs are at. Wisconsin used to be a team you circled on the schedule as a likely loss. Now they’re a wounded animal at home, desperate for a win to salvage their season.
The over/under at 35.5 is laughably low – even lower than what Vegas had for the Indiana game – which probably means we’ll see a 10-7 slog that puts everyone to sleep. Iowa has shown it can score in the low 30s when things are clicking, but Wisconsin’s elite run defense will make life difficult for Kamari Moulton and the ground game. If Iowa has to win this game with QB play – and they might – this could get ugly fast.
You never know what will happen in a rivalry game, especially when one side of the rivalry is out for revenge. This may be the only game the Badgers have a real shot to win in October, so you know they’re going to give the Hawkeyes their best shot. With Gronowski’s status up in the air and Iowa’s offensive heartbeat in danger of going very flat, very quickly, this game could go either way.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
