On the surface, just about everything that Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has been throwing this year is the same as it was during his All Star campaign in 2025.
His fastball, never a true heater, is within 0.4 mph of last year’s average, and obviously he’s been pitching in the cooler weather of April. It’s usage is almost identical, and he’s leaned on his curveball and change just about the same exact amount this year as last. He’s virtually abandoned his cutter (just 0.3% of his pitches this year),
but even last season it was used just 4.3% of the time.
The only thing that jumps off the page when breaking down his stuff this year is that his velocities on his secondary pitches have been oddly off. While he chucked his curve at 81.0 mph on average last year, it’s nearly two full mph slower in 2026 (79.3 mph). Meanwhile, the speed on his change has bumped up almost a full mph to 85.7 from 84.8 last season.
It should maybe come as no surprise that the pitch values, per FanGraphs, on those two pitches have cratered as he has struggled to begin 2026. However, his fastball last season – a pitch that was valued as one of the 21 best in the sport among pitchers who threw 100+ IP – has lost almost all of its value.
One particularly interesting bit on how his season-over-season stuff has changed, though, is with his arm angle. Per Statcast, his 2025 season saw him pitch with a 48 degree arm angle, yet that’s increased to 52 degrees so far in 2026. Whether that’s by design I do not know, but that seems like a significant enough change that maybe, just maybe, it’s what’s tweaking his ability to locate his pitches.
Abbott’s 4/30 start against the Colorado Rockies was his best since Opening Day, though that, of course, came against the Colorado Rockies. The hope is that on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley, he’ll be able to once again show that he’s rounding back into form and that the bulk of his April drubbing was the exception, not the rule.
He’ll be up against Jameson Taillon in the second game of the series after last night’s devastating walk-off loss. The Reds are mired in a 4-game losing streak as they road trip through the NL Central, and man, would it ever be nice to see them pick themselves up off the mat and get a victory to shake those trees.
First pitch is set for 7:40 PM ET, with hopefully fewer weather issues than last night.
Here’s how the Reds will line up for the start:
