The Commanders’ Week 9 meeting with the Seattle Seahawk was a pivotal moment for their season. Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, the game pivoted in the wrong direction.
Their third consecutive loss
by three or more touchdowns brings their record to 3-6. To finish the season with a winning record, they will need six of the remaining eight games, which include matchups with four teams with five or more wins. The season ending injuries to star QB Jayden Daniels, starting CB Marshon Lattimore and WR/KR Luke McCaffrey make that exceedingly unlikely.
While a few diehards, like Hogs Haven’s Bill in Bangkok, might hold out hope until the Boys in Burgundy and Gold are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, most of us will recognize that it is time to declare defeat and turn our attention back to the franchise rebuild, which is still only in its second year.
For those hearty souls with an appetite for a post mortem on the Commanders’ 14-38 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, here is my weekly summary of who got playing time, where they lined up, who stepped up (yes, a few players did), and whose play left room for improvement.
A Note on Stats Sources
Stats were sourced from the NFL, Pro Football Reference (PFR), Pro Football Focus (PFF), or ESPN. NFL official stats were used whenever available. When the source is not indicated, it means either than NFL official stats were used or that there was agreement between stats service.. The source is indicated when there was disagreement between services or if the stat is only available from one source (eg. PFF: stops, run stops, Y/RR, QB hurries). QBR is proprietary to ESPN.
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the contribution of individual plays to a team’s scoring potential on a drive. These are all the plays with EPA greater than 2 or less than -2.
Biggest Plays for the Commanders
Q2, 1:04, 3rd and 5 at SEA 13: Jayden Daniels scrambles right end for 12 yards. EPA 3.15
Q2, 15:00, 4th and 1 at WAS 42: Jayden Daniels pass complete short right to John Bates for 10 yards. EPA 2.98
Q4, 7:17, 3rd and 4 at SEA 4: Chris Rodriguez up the middle for 4 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.51
Q4, 8:46, 3rd and 6 at SEA 13: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Jaylin Lane for 7 yards. EPA 2.15
Q2, 6:56, 4th and 6 at WAS 24: Tress Way punts 63 yds, downed by Jared Ivey at SEA 13 yd line. EPA: 2.09 Q3, 9:17, 3rd and 4 at SEA 46: Sam Darnold pass short middle intended for Cody White is intercepted by Mike Sainristil at WAS-47 and returned for no gain. EPA -3.22
Biggest Plays for the Seahawks
Q2, 4:44, 1st and 10 at SEA 40: Sam Darnold pass complete short right to Cody White for 60 yards, touchdown. EPA 5.4
Q2, 8:57, 3rd and 8 at WAS 25: Sam Darnold pass complete deep right to Tory Horton for 25 yards, touchdown. EPA 4.19
Q2, 8:46, 1sst and 10 at WAS 26: Sam Darnold pass complete deep left to Elijah Arroyo for 26 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.16
Q2, 5:15, 3rd and 5 at SEA 18: Sam Darnold pass complete short right to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 22 yards. EPA 2.43
Q3, 2:52, 1st and 10 at WAS 18: Kenneth Walker left end for 11 yards. Penalty on Javon Kinlaw: Face Mask (15 Yards), 4 yards (accepted). EPA 2.14
Q1, 12:55, 2nd and 10 at WAS 41: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Deebo Samuel for 3 yards. Penalty on Tyler Biadasz: Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards (accepted). EPA -2.03
Q3, 0:18, 3rd and 4 at SEA 40: Jayden Daniels sacked by and Jarran Reed and Uchenna Nwosu for 10 yards. EPA -2.14
Q2, 8:52: Jason Myers kicks off 60 yards, returned by Jaylin Lane for 26 yards. Jaylin Lane fumbles (forced by Brandon Pili), recovered by Connor O’Toole at WAS 26. EPA -3.84
OFFENSE
Starter Jayden Daniels suffered a season-ending elbow dislocation near the midpoint of the fourth quarter. Fortunately for Daniels and the team, the injury was to his non-throwing arm and appears to have a good prognosis for recovery by next season.
Prior to the injury, Daniels completed 16/22 passes (72.7%, ADOT 5.9 yds) for 153 yds, 0 TD and 1 INT, while taking 4 sacks for 20 yds and 1 hit. According to PFF, Jayden Daniels was pressured on 57.1% of dropbacks, well above his season average of 39.2%. However, his 20% Pressure to Sack Rate was only the third highest of the season (NYG 30%, CHI 33%). PFR has a higher threshold for recording pressures. According to their scoring method, Daniels was pressured on 14.3% of dropbacks, which was only his third highest pressure rate this season, after the GB (25.0%) and DAL (21.4%) games.
Daniels was the team’s second leading rusher, with 10 attempts for 51 yds (5.1 Y/A), 2 first downs and 1 TD, but only the third most successful runner at 50.0% success rate.
Daniels’ total effort earned a 56.5 Total QBR, which ranked 15th best in Week 9. It was his third best mark of the season (vs LAC 74.4, CHI 67.7)
Marcus Mariota took over from Daniels after the injury with 4:40 remaining, and did not attempt a pass or run. He simply handed off twice to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and five times to Chris Rodriguez.
Chris Rodriguez led the team in rushing yards (65 yds), rushing average (5.4 Y/A), rushing first downs (7), yards after contact (54), and rushing success rate (91.7%). In fact, his rushing success rate this week was the highest achieved by any player in a game this season with a minimum of 10 rushing attempts.
CRod finished with a stat line of 12 att, 65 yds, 1 TD and 7 first downs, with 1 broken tackle. What makes that particularly remarkable is that he averaged just 0.9 yards before contact/attempt.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was third on the team with 38 hard earned yards on 12 rushing attempts (3.2 Y/A). While his rushing total and rushing average were not eye-popping, he was actually effective at getting they yards the team needed, as indicated by his very respectable 58.3% rushing success rate. Bill had to work for every yard he gained, as 36 of his 38 total yards came after contact. He averaged just 0.2 YBC/att. He also caught his lone target for 3 yds.
Jeremy McNichols has been quietly contributing a few clutch plays per game over the last few weeks. That streak came to an end on Sunday night. He was given just one rushing attempt for 0 yds and was not targeted as a receiver. McNichols was flagged for a chop block, but the penalty was declined.
Deebo Samuel had the most targets among Washington receivers (6), led the team in receptions (5) and yards after the catch (37). He was second in receiving yards (41) and third in receiving productivity (1.52 Y/RR). His 1.0 yd Average Depth of Target was the lowest on the team.
Jaylin Lane caught 3/5 targets (60% rec, ADOT 7.6 yds) for 29 yds and 2 first downs.
In his first game with the Commanders, Treylon Burks was targeted once and made a 14 yd reception. He lost 1 yd after the reception.
Despite playing the most snaps of the WR group, Chris Moore did not draw a single receiving target. He did achieve the highest PFF run blocking grade of the WRs at a respectable 61.9.
Luke McCaffrey was injured on the opening kickoff and did not get an opportunity to play on offense.
Zach Ertz led the Commanders in receiving yards with 4 rec/4 tgt for 46 yds and 2 first downs. He was the Commanders’ second most productive receiver at 1.7 Y/RR. Ertz committed two false start penalties for 5 yds a pop.
John Bates was the Commanders’ most productive receiver at an impressive 2.5 Y/RR. He caught 2/4 tgts for 20 yds, with 1 drop. He gained 16 yards after the catch.
Ben Sinnott got some quality cardio in on 4 receiving routes, but sadly was not targeted.
PFF attributed 2 of Jayden Daniel’s 4 sacks to blocking failures by the OL. The other two were made by blitzing linebackers.
According to PFF, LT Laremy Tunsil allowed just 2 hurries in 38 pass blocking snaps. His 5.3% Pressure Rate allowed in pass protection was near the high end of the acceptable range for OTs. PFF gave him a fairly average 53.7 run blocking grade.
LG Chris Paul did not allow a single pressure in 38 pass blocking snaps. His 47.4 PFF run blocking grade was the second lowest on the team. Paul was penalized 15 yds for a facemask grab in the second quarter.
C Tyler Biadasz allowed just 2 pressures in pass protection. Unfortunately, they were the two sacks on JD5 allowed by the OL. To add insult to injury, he was also penalized 15 yds for an illegal blindside block in the first quarter. On a happier note, he earned the highest PFF run blocking grade on the team, at 75.2.
RG Sam Cosmi allowed 2 pressures in 38 dropbacks. His 5.3% Pressure Rate was a little on the high side for an iOL. He earned the third highest run blocking grade on the team, at 65.8.
This was one of the better games this season for the rookie RT. Josh Conerly Jr allowed just 3 QB hurries in 38 pass blocking snaps. His 7.9% Pressure Rate allowed in pass protection is still a little high for a veteran starting OT, but not unusual for a rookie.
Brandon Coleman subbed in for 7 snaps to give LT Laremy Tunsil a breather. According to PFF, he did not allow any pressures. His 57.8 run blocking grade is a little on the high side of the average range.
Andrew Wylie subbed in RG Sam Cosmi for 7 snaps and kept a clean stat sheet.
DEFENSE
The distinction between edge defenders and iDL has been blurred increasingly in recent games as the team has attempted to adjust to the loss of it starting and primary backup defensive ends. While I have kept them segregated by position, the iDL have been taking on more of the DE role.
This was an exceptionally poor showing for the Commanders’ edge defenders. Preston Smith was the only one who managed to touch Sam Darnold. In 11 defensive snaps, Preston registered 1 QB hit, which was his only entry on the stat sheet. That’s actually not bad, considering that he made only 3 pass rush attempts.
Jacob Martin got the most playing time, but did not register a pressure in 22 pass rush attempts. He registered just 2 tackle assists, one of which contributed to a defensive stop.
According to PFF, Jalyn Holmes registered the most QB pressures on the defense, which is sad considering that he had just 2 QB hurries in 9 pass rush attempts. Those were his only defensive stats of the evening.
Keeping with the theme, Von Miller registered 1 QB hurry per PFF and nothing else.
Daron Payne spent 38.5% of his defensive snaps at DE and the rest at DT, mostly on the left side of the line. He recorded 3 tackle assists and contributed to 1 defensive stop. According to PFR, he also missed 2 tackles.
Javon Kinlaw played 46.9% of his snaps at DE and the rest on the interior. He had 1 tackle assist, with 1 missed tackle per PFF (2 misses per PFR). Kinlaw was also called for face mask penalty at the WAS 18 yd line in third quarter.
Eddie Goldman stuck to the interior of the DL. He made 1 tackle and 2 assists, with 1 defensive stop.
Sheldon Day made 2 tackles and 1 assist. All three tackles he was in on were stops.
A week after his monster game against the Chiefs (37.5% Pressure Rate, 1 sack), Johnny Newton failed to record a single defensive stat.
Frankie Luvu tied with CB Trey Amos for the team lead in tackles with 4 tackles and 3 assists, but failed to record a single stop and missed 1 tackle. He also forced a fumble, which was recovered by the Seahawks. He was targeted 4 times in coverage, allowing 3 receptions for 39 yds, per PFF (44 yds per PFR), with 1 PBU.
Bobby Wagner was close behind with 3 tackles, 4 assists and 1 stop. PFR recorded a missed tackle, but PFF did not. In coverage, he allowed 4 rec/4 tgts for 72 yds per PFF. PFR graded him much better at 2/2 for 21 yds.
Jordan Magee played around half as much as his senior colleagues. Nevertheless, he recorded 2 tackles and 3 assists with 2 stops. PFF recorded 1 missed tackle, and PFR counted 2. He was not targeted in 9 coverage snaps.
Trey Amos was torched in coverage, with some disagreement regarding the severity of the roasting. PFR recorded 4 rec/4 tgt for 46 yds in 18 coverage snaps (2.56 Y/Cov Snaps); while PFF saw it as 5/5 for 102 yds and 1 TD (5.67 Y/Cov Snap).
Amos tied for the team lead with 4 tackles, 3 assists, and 2 stops plus 1 missed tackle.
Marshon Lattimore had a mostly great day in coverage, allowing just 2 rec/3 targets for 11 yds (0.55 Y/Cov Snp), with 1 PBU, but also allowed 1 TD reception. Some of his success might have been down to Sam Darnold preferentially targeting Amos and Mike Sainristil. Nevertheless, it was the fourth time in five games that he was below 0.6 Y/Cov Snp, indicating lockdown coverage performance. He also recorded 2 tackle assists.
Lattimore was called for pass interference twice. One was accepted for 10 yds and the other declined.
Lattimore was lost for the season with an ACL tear.
Mike Sainristil recorded 1 tackle and 1 assist with 1 interception and 1 PBU in coverage. According to PFF, he was targeted 4 times, allowing 3 rec for 35 yds and 1 TD (1.94 Y/Cov Snp). PFR recorded 4 rec/5 tgt for 41 yds (2.28 Y/Cov Snp) with 1 TD. Sainristil was called for holding in the third quarter, but the penalty was declined.
Jonathan Jones recorded 1 tackle and 2 assists. PFF recorded 1 rec/1 tgt for 26 yds (2.17 Y/Cov Snp). PFR recorded 2 rec/2 tgt for 48 yards (4 Y/Cov Snp). Jones was called for pass interference in the third quarter, which was accepted for 28 yds.
Jeremy Reaves made 2 tackles and 5 assists, with 1 TFL, 2 stops and 1 missed tackle. PFF recorded 1 rec/1 tgt for 5 yds in 21 coverage snaps. PFF counted 2/2 for 21 yds.
Quan Martin made 3 tackles, with 1 missed tackle. PFR credited him with allowing 2 rec/2 tgt for 70 yds and 1 TD. PFF recorded just 1 rec/1 tgt for 14 yds and no TD.
Darnell Savage made 1 tackle and 1 assist. He played just 5 coverage snaps and was not targeted on any of them.
Tyler Owens played very sparingly and made 1 tackle assist, which contributed to a defensive stop. He was targeted once in coverage and allowed a reception for a 26 yd TD.
Percy Butler played just 4 defensive snaps and kept a clean stat sheet.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Luke McCaffrey returned the opening kickoff 19 yards and broke his collarbone at the end of the play. He is out for the season.
Deebo Samuel returned one kickoff for 30 yards.
Jaylin Lane returned 2 punts for a total of 15 yds, and made one fair catch. He attempted 1 kick return, which he ran back for 26 yards before fumbling, to give the Seahawks a turnover at Washington 26 yard line. That was the biggest negative play of the game (EPA -3.84).
Tress Way and the punt coverage unit had a very good game, as usual. Tress booted 4 punts for 191 yds (long 63) with no returns. All four were landed inside the Lions’ 20 yard line with 3 fair catches and 1 downed. Consequently his average per attempt and net average per attempt were both 47.8 yds.
Tyler Ott did his part by keeping out of trouble. It is good to not hear about the long snapper.
Matt Gay was a perfect 2/2 on extra points.
Jeremy Reaves led the coverage units with 2 tackles. Tyler Owens made 1 tackle. Owens was also flagged for running into the kicker for 5 yds.
Chris Rodriguez and Chris Moore each had a missed tackle.
