Bryce Elder gets the ball with Braves’ series streak on the line

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 30: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves throws a pitch in the first inning during a game against the Detroit Tigers at Truist Park on April 30, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/IOS/Getty Images) | Getty Images So, it’s come down to this. With the 2026 Bra

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So, it’s come down to this. With the 2026 Braves’ haven’t-lost-a-series-yet streak on the line, it’s up to Bryce Elder and his teammates to win tonight, and then hopefully win tomorrow as well to keep it rolling.

Elder started off the season in exciting fashion, with three stellar starts and one hiccup. Since then, there hasn’t been much to write home about unless you really enjoy penning missives about his low HR/FB rate. He had a 6/2 K/BB ratio with a dinger given up against the Nationals, then a 2/1

K/BB ratio in seven innings (somehow) against the Phillies, and then a really weird start last time out where he had a 5/3 K/BB ratio and the lowest groundball rate of his career against the Tigers. The Braves lost each of those last two outings.

On the season, Elder has a 46/78/97 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). Over those last three starts, it’s 78/88/111. For his career, his line is now 102/104/100. For all the changes he’s made, he’s definitely looked, in aggregate, like the same ol’ Bryce Elder… just with all the benefits that come with a much lower HR/FB rate.

Elder’s mound opponent will be George Kirby, who has had a much better career to date, but has a similar-if-you-squint 2026. Kirby was a bit homer-prone (three dingers) but highly effective in his first four outings (83/92/80), but has been more meh and reliant on not giving up homers in three starts since (66/87/107). Even so, the Mariners have won all three of those outings, and four of his starts in a row overall. This game could very well come down to which hurler the HR/FB gods decide to smile on with greater frequency.

Overall, Kirby is a very good 93/82/84 guy for his career, with over 4 fWAR per 200 innings pitched accumulated so far. He had a couple of 4+ fWAR seasons in 2023 and 2024, and could’ve gotten somewhere around there in 2025 had he not gotten a late start due to some inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s probably something like a top 20 arm in MLB, though his strikeout rate is seriously diminished this year, which appears to be related to some issues he’s having getting his four-seamer to carry the way it did previously.

Elder has one career start against the Mariners, which came in Atlanta back when he was Good Start of 2023 Elder: a 6/1 K/BB ratio in six innings. Kirby has two career starts against the Braves: one where he dominated them in 2022 in Seattle, and another where he lasted seven innings but took a loss despite a 6/1 K/BB ratio thanks to a dinger and some other well-struck balls back in 2023.

With Raisel Iglesias back in the fold and everyone in the bullpen theoretically available sans Tyler Kinley, who gave up the game-winning homer last night, the Braves could have an opportunity to shorten the game — provided that Elder, HR/FB, and the bats-versus-Kirby cooperate.