Welcome to Week 8, and happy Halloween! Halloween isn’t just spooky and scary – it ventures into the eerie and weird. Here’s something weird: The last undefeated team in the NFL is the Vikings, and the last winless team is the Chargers. If you told me in August that I’d be writing that sentence at the end of October, I’d ask you what you’re smoking. But that’s the reality as the NFL season enters November.
The Vikings are 6-0 despite having one of the worst offenses in the league. In their five wins
since Week 1, they failed to score a touchdown two different times, and only found the end zone five times, total. And that’s with a dominant, suffocating defense that keeps giving the offense the ball.1972 Dolphins, your champagne should be on ice right about now.
The Chargers’ offense – which was supposed to be a juggernaut with the pairing of new O.C. Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert – is even worse than Minnesota’s. They’re dead last in the NFL in scoring, at just 15 points per game. One of the most enjoyable things about Week 7 was that we didn’t have to see Jim Harbaugh’s team play. We did get to see his brother John’s team though, and that was glorious. The Giants went into Houston as 10.5 point underdogs and pulled off the second biggest upset of the season, so far, with a walk-off in OT. Maybe J.J. McCarthy could help that anemic offense up north. Hmm…
Week 7 featured a lot of missed kicks, some horrible refereeing, and the defending Super Bowl champs making a statement by dominating the previously undefeated Chiefs in prime time. What does Week 8 have in store?
Stats of the Week:
- Every team in the AFC North and NFC North is over .500. Meanwhile, no team in the NFC South is over .500. I feel like I’ve typed that last sentence at least a dozen times since I took this gig.
- The Bucs scored 43 points at Carolina, despite having just 64 passing yards.
- In one quarter, Tampa scored a TD four different ways: Run, pass, special teams, and defense, and they also kicked a field goal. A team did all of that within a single quarter only once before in NFL history.
- Speaking of things that haven’t happened in a while, the Ravens became the first team since 1950 to lose by 20+ points after leading by 13+ points at halftime. Baltimore has blown 17 double-digit leads in the 2020s.
- Baltimore’s point differential is +65 in the first half (1st in the NFL) and -70 in the second half (last in the NFL).
- Aaron Glenn is 0-8 against the AFC East, and during his brief tenure, the Jets have been outscored 107-6 In the final two minutes of the first half.
- Aaron Rodgers threw his 540th career TD pass, moving him past Peyton Manning and into third place all time.
- The Seahawks have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 36 straight contests.
- The Dolphins did not hold the lead at any point in their first five games. In their sixth game (against the Jets on Sunday), they never trailed.
On to Week 8. Note: There is no international game this week! Sleep in and move those clocks back an hour.
Bye Weeks: HOU, NO, NYG, SF
Week 8 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Trey McBride. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Last week, my Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did very well, with more hits than misses. My wide receiver fades were especially strong.
My Ride of the Week was Tucker Kraft, who scored a TD and put up 12.8 fantasy points, good for TE6 on the week. My Fade of the Week was Patrick Mahomes. The seven fantasy points he put up against Seattle was the single worst output of his nine-year career as Kansas City’s starter. That includes games he didn’t finish. My Sleeper of the Week Kyler Murray mostly stayed asleep and only produced 11 fantasy points. Because, you know, Minnesota can’t score touchdowns. You can check my work here.
***
Ride of the Week: Zay Flowers (@BUF). I haven’t written enough about Flowers this season. He’s been a beast, and leads the NFL in some key metrics including catch percentage (76%), yards per route run (3.73), and yards after the catch (313). He’s fifth in receiving yards and is one of just six receivers with a team target share north of 30%. In other words, he’s been really, really good. This figures to be a high-scoring game (the Vegas total is 53.5, second biggest on the board), and the Bills’ porous secondary is a dream matchup. Buffalo has allowed the most touchdown catches (11) and fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing WRs. Flowers will come up smelling like a rose this week – book it.
Fade of the Week: Bryce Young (@GB). Speaking of roses, the bloom is quickly coming off this one. Remember when Young stood tall as the QB2 after two weeks, and everyone was saying “ah, NOW we see why he was the first overall pick”? Well, it hasn’t been a disaster since then but there’s been a steady decline, culminating in a horrible performance at Tampa on Sunday (7.4 fantasy points) in a blowout loss. Now Young and his team must regroup on a short week and travel to Lambeau to play a Packers team that has to be chewing on nails after an incredibly frustrating loss at Detroit – one replete with some awful calls against them, more big drops, and two missed short field goals. The Panthers are down a couple of offensive linemen – not ideal. The Packers are allowing the fifth fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and have as many picks (9) as TD passes allowed. They lead the league in interceptions. Young is ranked right on the fringe of starter this week (QB12) but I think he’ll struggle again, and finish outside the Top-15.
Sleeper of the Week: Geno Smith (vs. LV). Geno should start to cook now that he has a full complement of healthy weapons, including rookie WR Omar Cooper, Jr. As I’ve been saying in my waiver wire columns, Geno can get you fantasy points in the right matchup. This is one of those matchups. The Raiders are losers of four straight and their defense is the main culprit. They’re allowing the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs, and the 16 TD passes they’ve allowed is tied for second most. Look for Geno to have plenty of success getting the ball to his young and talented receivers and tight ends. He put up 24.5 fantasy points against Miami and is a good bet to break 20 again. He’s ranked as the QB22 this week and that’s too low.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, and Joe Burrow;the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three QBs ranked in the Top-10 this week who should smash:
Dak Prescott (vs. ARI). This game has the highest total of the week (54.5), Dallas is flying high after trouncing the Eagles, and the Cardinals allow the fourth most FPPG to opposing QBs and have given up a league-worst 17 TD passes.
Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND). The Colts handled Kyler Murray last week, but they just traded away DeForest Buckner as part of a fire sale, and now they get the rested Jaguars. Trevor should flourish at home against this middling (at best) defense.
Jayden Daniels (vs. PHI). He’s positioned do well this week. It’s a decent matchup (10th most FPPG allowed to opposing QBs), and Philly is reeling and on a short week. His legs are a huge plus and the Eagles’ defense has already allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing QBs. Daniels scored 17.7 fantasy points at Philadelphia in Week 1 but that was a very different Eagles team – he should improve on that.
Others ranked in the Top-15 this week who I think will outperform their ranking: Jacoby Brissett (@DAL) and Matthew Stafford (v. LAC).
Sleepers:
Two lower-ranked QBs (outside the Top-15) who I think are in good spots this week: Kirk Cousins (@NYJ) and Sam Darnold (vs. CHI). Both have plus-matchups and should need to put up some points.
If you’re truly stuck, Kyler Murray (@DET) and Tanner McKee (@WAS) have the two best matchups you can have, in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing QBs. I just don’t know that either of them has a ceiling game in his bag.
Fades:
Three big name QBs face very tough matchups this week: Jared Goff (vs. MIN), Caleb Williams (@SEA), and Patrick Mahomes (@DEN).
Let’s start with Goff, who’s been outstanding so far this season (15 TDs, 0 INTs). This is the irresistible force meeting the immovable object and Detroit’s #2 offense (points scored) vs. Brian Flores’s #1 defense (points allowed) is the matchup I’m most excited to watch this week. Minnesota has surrendered just three passing TDs in six games, and they’ve also allowed the fewest yards and FPPG to opposing QBs. They’re blitzing at an absurd 69% rate (no other team is above 45%) and it’s working. I’m scared of this defense and you should be too. Also, the practice week opened with both Jahmyr Gibbs (shoulder) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) sitting out. There’s no reason to think either one misses this game, but Goff would take a major hit if either one does.
As for the other two QBs, Seattle has allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, and Denver is seventh, plus Mahomes has cooled off and is missing weapons. It obviously depends on who else you have, but I’m leery of starting any of these three this week.
Don’t start Justin Herbert (@LAR). That’s the entire analysis.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Baker Mayfield (@ATL, and we still haven’t seen him have to throw with that injured thumb), Michael Penix, Jr. (vs. TB), Malik Willis (vs. NE), and Bo Nix (v. KC – he’s not getting another monster TD run, and might be without Jaylen Waddle, not that he’s mattered much).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and (new entrant) Kyren Williams; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three high-end backs in smash spots this week:
Derrick Henry (@BUF) is coming off two down weeks, but the return of Lamar should make a huge difference as he’s a different player when Jackson is with him in the backfield. Buffalo is bad against the run AND the pass and allows the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs. Baltimore will want to establish the run to keep the ball away from the NFL’s #1 scoring offense. Henry is second in the NFL with 15 carries from inside the 5-yard line.
Javonte Williams (vs. ARI), on the other hand, is coming off the highest rushing total of his career on Monday night (155 yards), is tied for the league lead with nine total TDs and has scored in every game but one. The Cardinals are a middling defense, and game script should favor the Dallas workhorse. And if you were wondering which back has more carries from inside the five than Henry, it’s this guy, with 17.
Josh Jacobs (vs. CAR) looked very good in his return, and he should get better and stronger against a Panthers’ run defense that just got put through the meat grinder by Tampa. The Panthers have allowed the second most rushing TDs and FPPG to opposing running backs.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think will outperform their rankings (I hit on several of these last week): Jaylen Warren (vs. CLE), Bhayshul Tuten (vs. IND), Jordan Mason (@DET, and especially if Aaron Jones is out), and Rhamondre Stevenson (@MIA).
Sleepers:
A few to consider if you’re stuck: Blake Corum (vs. LAC), Rachaad White (vs. PHI), Emanuel Wilson (vs. CHI), and Jeremiyah Love (@DAL, if he plays).
Fades:
Jonathan Taylor (@JAC) makes the list for the second straight week. Poor guy – he goes from playing the No. 1 fantasy defense vs. RBs (Minnesota) to the No. 2 unit. That’s no fun. Oh, and did I mention that All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson is now a Seahawk? I doubt you can bench Taylor, but this is a truly terrible spot. The Jaguars are allowing just over 50 yards per game to opposing RBs, which is by far the best mark in the NFL, and they’ve only yielded three TDs to the position.
D’Andre Swift (@SEA) has been very reliable, and is also hard to sit, but he’s in a tough spot this week as well. You saw the stat in the prelude about the Seahawks and 100-yard rushers. They’re eighth best overall against running backs for fantasy purposes, and they’re especially tough at home, where they just put Kenneth Walker’s revenge game in a trash compactor. I’m sure Ben Johnson will try to run it, but I don’t love their chances. Swift will also lose more opportunity share if Kyle Monangai is back. My one hope here is that he’s more involved in the passing game.
Don’t start Omarion Hampton (@LAR). That’s the entire analysis. I’ll use this joke until the Chargers make me stop.
Other RB Fades: Quinshon Judkins (@PIT and coming off a solid game, but I don’t love the matchup or likely game script), TreVeyon Henderson (@MIA), J.K. Dobbins (vs. KC), all Eagles RBs (@WAS, just stay away from this messy, banged-up backfield – it’s a tough matchup and even if Saquon Barkley plays, who knows how much work he’ll get or how long he’ll last), and if Zach Charbonnet (vs. CHI) is active, I’d wait a week before jumping to click him in.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Seven Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Christian Watson (vs. CAR, and especially if Matthew Golden is out), Tee Higgins (vs. TEN), Parker Washington (vs. IND), Garrett Wilson (vs. LV) to bounce back from a down week, Jalen Coker (@GB), D.J. Moore (vs. BAL, if he plays), and Michael Wilson (@DAL).
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week — I like these guys as WR2/WR3 or Flex plays: Stefon Diggs (vs. PHI), Tre Tucker (@NYJ), and Omar Cooper, Jr. (vs. LV).
Sleepers:
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need comprise a pretty big list this week: Makai Lemon (@WAS, sixth most FPPG allowed to opposing receivers and I expect him to again lead the Eagles in catches and targets this week), Germie Bernard (vs. CLE), Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND), Malik Washington (vs. NE), Antonio Williams (vs. PHI), Chris Godwin, Jr. (vs. ATL), Khalil Shakir (vs. BAL), and Ryan Flournoy (vs. DAL).
If you want a longshot DFS play or are truly desperate: Treylon Burks (vs. PHI), Caleb Douglas (vs. NE), and Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI, who might see more targets with Rashid Shaheed out). Finally, if Matthew Golden doesn’t play, add Savion Williams (vs. CAR) to this list.
Fades:
I’ll fade A.J. Brown (@MIA), who clearly isn’t 100%. I’m not sure how Miami’s defense is doing this with the league’s most inexperienced secondary, and maybe it’s because it’s so easy to run on them, but only Seattle has allowed fewer FPPG to the position than them and only Kansas City has allowed fewer than the three TD catches Miami has allowed to receivers. They shut down Jets WR1 Garrett Wilson last week (but not WR2 Omar Cooper, Jr.).
I’m not as down on Ladd McConkey (@LAR) as some, but I can’t trust anything in this offense until it shows signs of life – not to mention that Ladd can’t seem to get through an entire game in one piece. It’s also a tough matchup (fifth fewest FPPG yielded to the position).
Jaylen Waddle (vs. KC) might not play, and if he does, I’m avoiding him. In Week 1 he had one catch for two yards against the Chiefs, who allow the third fewest FPPG to the position. I wouldn’t run to start Courtland Sutton either, although he could see volume if Waddle is out. On the flip side, avoid Xavier Worthy (@DEN), who just isn’t a good NFL receiver and draws a bad matchup.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who should be starting options this season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Josh Downs (@JAC), Rome Odunze (@SEA, fewest FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts), Carnell Tate (@CIN) and Denzel Boston (@PIT).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers and Trey McBride; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Stick with Tucker Kraft (vs CAR), in a decent matchup and with Matthew Golden banged up. Kraft got off to a slow start but is finding his groove.
Dallas Goedert (@WAS) is not playing his normal number of snaps as he deals with a lingering knee issue, but he’s getting plenty of looks (17 catches on 24 targets across the last three games) with so many others injured. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, but he might against the Commanders, who’ve allowed the second most TDs (eight) and FPPG to the position.
Remember how atrocious the Bengals were vs. this position last year, or the Cardinals the year before? Well, this year that dubious distinction goes to the Lions, who have now given up an astonishing 10 TD catches to tight ends in just six games (and the most catches, yards, and FPPG). Every Sunday is National Tight Ends Day against this team. Fire up T.J. Hockenson (@DET) against the team that drafted him.
A few more tight ends ranked in the Top-12 who I think are good bets to do well this week: Travis Kelce (@DEN, they’re going to need a big game from him), Hunter Henry (@MIA, he’s put up at least five receptions or a TD in four straight contests), and Brenton Strange (vs. IND).
Sleepers:
If for some reason Chig Okonkwo (@PHI) hasn’t been picked up in your league, grab him. He was heating up with Jayden Daniels’s return even before the Terry McLaurin injury (60+ yards in two straight contests), and now I expect him to be a fringe TE1 the rest of the way. The Eagles are good against tight ends but I still think you can plug in Chig if needed.
A.J. Barner (vs. CHI) makes my sleepers list again this week. He was more involved last week (4-42 on five targets) and might stay busy with Rashid Shaheed out.
Others to consider if you’re in need: Tyler Higbee (vs. LAC), Eli Raridon (@MIA), and Greg Dulcich (vs. NE). And if you want a pure “TD or bust” option (I’m not sure why you would), look no further than Mike Gesicki (vs. TEN, five TDs on 12 catches) or Darnell Washington (vs. CLE, three TDs on 16 catches).
Fades:
Sam LaPorta (vs. MIN) is coming off a down game, and it doesn’t get easier this week. The Vikings are defending every position extremely well and tight end tops the list. In six games, opposing tight ends have a total line of 16-233-0 against Minnesota, and needless to say, they’re allowing the fewest FPPG to the position.
Jake Ferguson (vs. ARI) has vanished from the fantasy landscape – four straight games with less than two fantasy points is almost hard to believe for him. I’m sure he’ll make a reappearance at some point, but he shouldn’t be in lineups.
Darren Waller is another “TD or bust” option that I’d avoid if I could. The Packers have been very good against tight ends – second only to the Vikings in FPPG allowed.
More Fades (of guys who people might be starting): Harold Fannin, Jr. (@PIT) and in the same game, Pat Freiermuth (vs. CLE).
That’s all I’ve got this week. Good luck in Week 8!
***This column appears each Thursday here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants. ***
