Another year another Red Sox vs Yankees Wild Card round at Yankee Stadium.
I think it’s safe to say we’d all like something different but if that’s not possible, for the Red Sox to win this year. They almost pulled it off in 2025 but with the offense and pitching (minus Garret Crochet) both depleted it was just too much to overcome. This year, while Crochet is at most a bullpen arm, the Sox acquired veterans Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez to bolster a playoff rotation. And watched Payton Tolle surge
to the top anyway and become the obvious choice for Game 1.
Game 1
Tolle made his brief MLB debut and playoff debut (1 out) last year but is still very much a rookie. This year he’s been fantastic while putting up an ERA right about 3.00 and striking out 171 in 148.2 innings of work. It’s wild to think that he didn’t make the team out of Spring Training. But they wanted a little more development out of Tolle and when he returned in late April he looked MLB-ready starting from 6.0-inning, 11 strikeout tour de force against these same Yankees. Tolle made a second start against the Yankees in June during The Turnaround Homestand where he struck out 7, allowed 1 hit, and 0 runs.
Cam Schlittler is the Game 1 starter for New York.
Compared to Tolle’s 16 MLB innings in 2025, Schlittler threw 73.0 in the regular season. He bumped that to 193.3 in 2026 on his way to, unfortunately, probably a Cy Young award. Not bad for a guy drafted in the 7th round. The Red Sox selected Caleb Bolden with the pick immediately preceding him. Win some, lose some. He faced the Sox four times this season with the Yankees winning three of the four. That’s just bad luck. April he was dominant: 8.0 inning, 4 hits, 2 runs. Early June he lasted just 5.2 innings, 4 hits, 1 run. Honestly most of the time the Sox might win this one but it featured that 5-run eighth inning bullpen collapse. In Boston during late June was another 5.0 inning effort with 4 runs (0 earned) on 5 hits. Sox win this game. Then back in NYC in August 5.2 innings, 2 hits and 0 runs. Hopefully the coaches have been working on this. Third time through the order and he’s a .691 OPS allowed pitcher vs. ~.500 which is huge. The Blue Jays also faced him in four games and put up a total OPS of .686 against Schlittler to the Sox .560 mark. So, it can get better.
Game 2
Game 2 features Sonny Gray, the elder statesman of the rotation. Gray faced the Yankees twice this season, the Sox won both matchups. In early June he went 6.1 innings while allowing 3 runs on 8 hits. During The Weekend he was even better: 7.1 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs. The Sox did have to wait until the 10th inning to walkoff the game but it was a masterpiece against (probably still) Aaron Judge-less Yankees.
Max Fried was rumored to be starting Game 1 for a bit over the weekend, although that seemed kinda nuts to everyone. Is it good or bad he tossed only 112.2 innings this year? Is he fresh or rusty? Fried was originally drafted by the Padres in 2012 and traded with a package for Justin Upton. Did you forget the Justin Upton era (1 year) in San Diego? (I sure did). Despite this limited workload, Fried faced the Sox twice. One was 8.0 innings of 3 hit, 0 run ball. The second was a 3.2 inning return from the IL during the August doubleheader in the Bronx. Three hits, 1 run. That one run? A Nick Sogard homer. Just about 12 innings and 1 run. Maybe they should have opened with this guy?
Game 3
Hopefully there is no Game 3 because the Sox go 2-0. But if they can only win one of the first two games then Ranger Suarez will start the third matchup of the Wild Card series. The Sox signed him in part because he’s been excellent in October. Well, he had a pretty good September. He’s allowed just 3 runs all month putting up a 1.09 ERA in that span. Batters hit just .182/.250/.284 during the last month of the regular season. In his introduction to the rivalry in April, Suarez lost 4-1, hit hard through 4.2 innings of work including a crushing homer. Then in early June he held the Yankees to 1 run in 6.1 innings but the bullpen couldn’t hold them back. Sox lost 6-1. Then he allowed 6 runs as part of the 16-1 drubbing in August. He might not be the guy you want starting in this series but then again, he’s in a groove now and has recovered from various IL stints so he might just be in a better place pitching-wise than August.
Gerrit Cole used to be the ace. Now he’s the number three. Cole missed all of 2025 with injury but came back for 127 innings this year. Despite no longer having Rafael Devers, Cole was hit hard by Boston: 5.1 innings, 7 hits, 2 homers, 4 runs. Masa and Anthony Seigler hit the bombs, and, clearly neither will e playing this fall. So someone else will need to emerge as the hero.
Aaron Judge is probably out but he’s trying to play anyway.
Giancarlo Stanton is possibly out but he’s been on the IL since April. If he’s healthy is that even the way to return? We might find out!
Trent Grisham is also a possibility.
Ben Rice ended up with 41 homers but didn’t even lead the American League. Thanks, Pete! Alonso also robbed Yordan Alvarez of a chance at the Triple Crown by winning RBI as well. Just doing service all over the league.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Tuesday, September 29: Payton Tolle (3.03 ERA / 3.04 FIP) vs. Cam Schlittler (1.95 ERA / 2.56 FIP)
Wednesday, September 30: Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA / 3.47 FIP) vs. Max Fried (2.80 ERA / 2.65 FIP)
Thursday, October 1: Ranger Suarez (3.22 ERA / 3.16 FIP) vs. Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA / 3.93 FIP) (If needed)
When/Where to Watch
Tuesday, September 29: 8:00 PM ET on NBC / Peacock
Wednesday, September 30: 8:00 PM ET on NBC / Peacock
Thursday, October 1, 8:00 PM ET on NBC / Peacock (If needed)
