Last week ATS: 9-15 (4-3 National, 5-12 B1G)
Season ATS: 25-24 (8-6 National, 17-18 B1G)
Last week was tough to stomach. Our great start to the season was squandered with a bunch of losing picks.
I had too much faith in Minnesota and Illinois, not enough in Michigan and Maryland, and there there was whatever the hell Oregon did at Oklahoma State.
There are a few games between top-25 teams nationally this week but overall it’s a pretty weak schedule, which likely means this is going to be a wild weekend of college football.
National Games
No. 22 Houston v. No. 13 Texas Tech (-7.5) – Friday 9/18 8:00 p.m.
ET – FOX
It’s obvious Texas Tech isn’t quite what they would have been if Brendan Sorsby wasn’t suspended. Will Hammond saw some time on the field in each of the last two seasons and is a solid quarterback.
The Red Raiders just don’t feel as dynamic as they would have been if Sorsby was behind center. Even though they beat Oregon State last week, Texas Tech was outgained by over 100 yards.
Houston beat Oregon State by a similar scoreline in their season opener, but didn’t have much trouble moving the football. Conner Weigmann threw for over 300 yards against the Beavers before only attempting 12 passes in last week’s easy win over Southern last week. During the offseason the Cougars brought in running back Makhi Hughes, who had two 1,000-yard seasons at Tulane before transferring to Oregon last year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston won this game outright. Texas Tech has a bunch of holes to fill from last year’s team and then they unexpectedly lost Sorsby in the offseason. Houston has looked more impressive so far this season and didn’t have as much drama to deal with in the offseason.
Houston 28, Texas Tech 24
No. 16 SMU v. No. 23 Louisville (-2.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
This has the potential to be the game of the weekend. SMU started their season with a win over Florida State in Tallahassee. After throwing for 430 yards in the win over the Seminoles, Kevin Jennings feasted on cupcake UC-Davis, finishing with five touchdown passes in the blowout.
Lincoln Kienholz shook off a rough first half in the opener against Ole Miss and nearly led the Cardinals to victory in Nashville a couple weeks ago. The former Ohio State quarterback has thrown for 300 yards in each of his first two starts, along with bringing a running threat to the table, finding the end zone three times so far this year on the ground.
Saturday’s game could very well come down to who has the football last. This feels like it could look a lot like the openers for both teams went, which were back-and-forth affairs.
I’ll side with Kienholz and the Cardinals since I think they are just a little better than Jennings and the Mustangs.
Louisville 38, SMU 31
No. 7 LSU (-2.5) v. No. 8 Ole Miss – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
To say there is going to be a lot of hate flowing in Oxford on Saturday night is an understatement. Lane Kiffin will be making his return to Ole Miss after taking the LSU job, leaving the Rebels prior to the team’s first game in last year’s College Football Playoff.
I was down in Oxford in July visiting family and even a couple months before this game the locals were fired up about voicing their displeasure with Lane.
Even though Ole Miss will be fueled by the energy from the fans, I’m not sure it will be enough. I am still in awe of what the Tigers did to Clemson in their season opener. Despite LSU not actually playing any NFL players in the blowout, they looked like the had a bunch of NFL guys out on the field since they looked so much better than Clemson.
Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, and the Rebels will put up a fight in this one but they will end up falling short. The problem for Ole Miss is LSU looks loaded this year. Plus, the Rebels had defensive issues in the opener against Louisville.
The Tigers will make Ole Miss pay for any lapses the Rebels have on defense this week.
LSU 31, Ole Miss 23
B1G Games
Kent State v. No. 6 Ohio State (-52.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
The last time Kent State visited Columbus was back in 2014. Following a loss to Virginia Tech the previous week, Ohio State took out their frustrations on the Golden Flashes, shutting out their in-state foe 66-0. This week could see a similar scenario play out after the Buckeyes blew a 20-point fourth quarter lead to Texas.
While Ryan Day’s coaching in big games is inconsistent, the same can’t be said when it comes to games against MAC opponents. Since taking over as Ohio State’s head coach, Day has a 7-0 record against MAC schools, with his Buckeye teams averaging 59 points per game with an average margin of victory of 51.7 points. Two weeks ago Ohio State hosted Ball State and sent the Cardinals back to Muncie with a 56-3 loss.
The Golden Flashes already faced one Power 4 program this season, falling to South Carolina 57-0 two weeks ago. If the Gamecocks can do that to Kent State, just imagine how many points the Buckeyes are going to put up on Saturday.
Add in the fact that Ohio State is going to be playing angry and things are likely to get ugly really quick for Kent State.
Ohio State 63, Kent State 7
No. 12 USC (-23.5) v. Rutgers – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Following their embarrassing loss to Massachusetts to start the season, things didn’t get much better for Rutgers last week, losing to Boston College 28-21. Greg Schiano made a change at quarterback prior to the game, with A.J. Surace replacing Dylan Lonergan.
Surace certainly was entertaining at quarterback, throwing three touchdowns and four interceptions against the Golden Eagles.
There is no quarterback controversy at USC. Through three games, Jayden Maiava has tossed 10 touchdowns as the Trojans have easily won all three contests.
If there is an area to be concerned about with USC it is with their defense. In victories over San Jose and Louisiana, the Trojans have allowed 56 points, with a shutout of Fresno State sandwiched between those wins.
Normally I would be a little hesitant to lay this many points with a team from the west coast traveling across the country. This game is a little different since Rutgers has been so bad and already turned the football over eight times through their first two games. Those are types of mistakes they can’t make against USC and expect to stay in the game.
USC 49, Rutgers 21
Michigan State v. No. 3 Notre Dame (-29.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
The Pat Fitzgerald era in East Lansing has gotten off to a strong start, with the Spartans winning their first two games of the season. Now Michigan State will hit the road for the first time this season to take on Notre Dame under the lights in South Bend. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has been solid so far this year, completing 70 percent of his passes and throwing for over 400 yards and three scores.
Notre Dame has acted accordingly through two games, easily dispatching Wisconsin and Rice. C.J. Carr is looking like a Heisman Trophy contender, while the defense of the Fighting Irish is playing at a high level. Notre Dame shouldn’t really sweat in a game until they play BYU next month.
Michigan State feels like they are little more complete team than Wisconsin is. I’m not expecting this game to go down to the wire like some past games between the programs, but I also don’t think the Fighting Irish will win this one by 30 points.
Notre Dame 37, Michigan State 17
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 2 Georgia (-25.5) v. Arkansas – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Georgia 38, Arkansas 10
Arizona State (-5.5) v. Kansas – 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Arizona State 33, Kansas 23
North Carolina v. Clemson (-3.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
North Carolina 27, Clemson 24
Kentucky v. No. 9 Texas A&M (-16.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas A&M 34, Kentucky 20
Florida State v. No. 10 Alabama (-19.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Alabama 35, Florida State 17
Florida (-2.5) v. Auburn – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Florida 31, Auburn 24
B1G
Portland State v. No. 21 Oregon (-56.5) – Friday 10:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Oregon 70, Portland State 7
Buffalo v. No. 14 Penn State (-40.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Penn State 44, Buffalo 10
Akron v. Minnesota (-23.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Minnesota 41, Akron 13
Eastern Michigan v. Wisconsin (-24.5) – 12:30 p.m. ET – Peacock
Wisconsin 33, Eastern Michigan 14
Southern Illinois v. Illinois (-39.5) – 2:00 p.m. ET – Peacock
Illinois 56, Southern Illinois 14
UTEP v. No. 19 Michigan (-34.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Michigan 51, UTEP 7
Western Kentucky v. No. 4 Indiana (-44.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – Peacock
Indiana 61, Western Kentucky 10
Northern Iowa v. No. 18 Iowa (-38.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Iowa 48, Northern Iowa 7
North Dakota v. Nebraska (-24.5) – 7:15 p.m. ET – BTN
Nebraska 38, North Dakota 17
Eastern Washington v. Washington (-42.5) – 7:15 p.m. ET – BTN
Washington 49, Eastern Washington 13
Colorado v. Northwestern (-3.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX
Colorado 27, Northwestern 20
Virginia Tech (-2.5) v. Maryland – 7:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 21
Purdue v. UCLA (-14.5) – 11:00 p.m. ET – BTN
UCLA 34, Purdue 24
