Back in May, I asked if the end of the tanking era would usher in minutes for Justin Champagnie. My thinking on Champagnie hasn’t changed, but my answer has. Which is to say, I still think Champagnie is an average NBA player, and that if the Wizards hold an open competition for forward minutes, he might just take minutes from more ballyhooed teammates.
But while the Brian Keefe and Will Dawkins say they’re excited about the internal competition at training camp, I suspect it’s going to be managed
competition. Meaning, they already know who they want to get the bulk of the minutes, and the real competition will be about who starts vs. comes off the bench, and who gets 28 minutes and who gets 20.
Even with the team trying to win games this season, my guess is that Champagnie will be the odd man out — in part because the team cannot lose sight of their long-term goal of contending for a championship in the next few years rather than striving to make the playoffs.
With any luck, several of the Wizards youth — the guys they want to play ahead of Champagnie — will actually be better this season. It’s certainly possible that Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George will be better, more productive players this season. Same for AJ Dybantsa. Barring injury, there’s zero chance Champagnie will take minutes from Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr, or DeAndre Ayton.
My guess is that after playing 1,300+ minutes each of the past two seasons, Champagnie will have a “break glass in case of emergency” role, at least to start the season. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up in a trade package during the year. For me at least, it’d be fun to see him land with a team that could actually use what he does well.
That’s because what he does well is reasonably valuable. Specifically, he scores efficiently despite meh shooting from deep (just 31.9% last season), competes on the boards and defends. He shot over 60% on twos each of the past two seasons, and he avoids turnovers.
He gives up some size, and he doesn’t do anything great, which is why he went undrafted, and the Wizards would prefer to play his younger, bigger, more skilled, and more athletic teammates — even if they’re not better this season.
This is the final stop in this year’s annual Statistical Doppelganger Machine series. As mentioned previously, the machine runs a player season (in this case Champagnie from last season) through an algorithm that compares that player’s statistical production to every other player season since 1977-78 and then tells me which were “most similar.” The algorithm uses 14 different bits of information, including the usual stats, age, and playing time. While position is not a factor, players tend to generate comps from a similar position.
To the comps…
I interrupt before getting started to note that as is sometimes the case, Champagnie’s top comp for his 2025-26 season is himself from the 2024-25 season. By my reckoning, Champagnie was actually slightly better in 2024-25 than 2025-26 (114 PPA to 105), but the category by category production was pretty consistent. This is interesting — consecutive seasons totaling more than 2,600 minutes with average-plus production. If I was in the front office of another team, and I needed a rotational forward, I’d be trying to pry Champagnie from the Wizards on the cheap.
To the comps, part two:
- Patrick Patterson | 2013-14 | Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors | Age: 24 — Patterson was a talented forward who had an array of injury problems. He played for five teams over nine seasons, even defying the “oft-injured” label a few times — 82 games at 28 years old, 81 at 25, 79 at 26. His best full season was probably 2014-15 — a 122 PPA in 81 games mostly off the bench.
- Jake Layman | 2018-19 | Portland Trail Blazers | Age: 24 — I have only vague memories of Layman, and for good reason. He didn’t play a ton or for long — six seasons with Portland and Minnesota. This was his best season (95 PPA over 71 games and 1,327 minutes), his health and production declined, and he was finished at 27.
- Omari Spellman | 2019-20 | Golden State Warriors | Age: 22 — This was Spellman’s second and final NBA season. He wasn’t bad — 83 PPA as a rookie with the Atlanta Hawks, and a 90 with the Warriors in this comp season. Even with low minutes (805 as a rookie and 886 in year two), that’s usually a profile that builds towards a bigger role. Instead, the Hawks dumped him to the Warriors, the Warriors lumped him into the mega deal that landed Andrew Wiggins and D’Angelo Russell, the Minnesota Timberwolves dumped him to the New York Knicks, and the Knicks waived him. Spellman’s built a good career playing overseas ever since.
- Dorell Wright | 2009-10 | Miami Heat | Age: 24 — This was the start of the best stretch of Wright’s career. He posted a 97 PPA in this comp season, followed by a 118 (playing all 82 games) for Golden State, a 138 PPA the next season, and then a 113 with Philadelphia at age 27. His production declined from there.
- Santi Aldama | 2022-23 | Memphis Grizzlies | Age: 22 — This comp is super interesting to me. I’ve liked Aldama as a player and thought his reputation was accelerating past his reality. Through five seasons, I have him with three that rated average or better with a peak PPA of 111 in 2024-25. He has another almost average year (97 PPA at age 23). While I suspect few would agree, there’s a case to be made that Champagnie is at least as productive as Aldama, if not better.
The honorable mentions are a mix of useful role players — several of whom fit a “tough-as-nails” mold like Champagnie seems to. The list includes: Kelenna Azubuike, Jae Crowder, Tari Eason (age 21), and Caleb Martin. No one who’s going to transform a franchise, but useful players in the right role on a good team.
My hope for Champagnie is that he gets a chance somewhere. I don’t think it’ll be in Washington, but perhaps he can be part of a trade that will net the Wizards something they need while getting him minutes with a team that can use him.
