After an incomplete effort against USC and flirtation with danger against Penn State, the Michigan Wolverines finally got burned. Wisconsin’s second-half outburst contributed to the Wolverines’ first loss
of the season, and suddenly the Big Ten race looks a lot more daunting. There is still a ton of season left, and a loss was an inevitability, but there are real questions to be asked now.
Unfortunately, next up on the schedule is Michigan’s trip to the West Coast, this season being the Pacific Northwest. The Washington Huskies are 48th in Kenpom, while Oregon is 83rd, meaning like last year’s trip to Los Angeles, Dusty May must bring home a pair of wins. Doing so would require a mental reset from his squad, which has really dropped off since Christmas. Surely a 10:30 pm ET start will not complicate that…
No. 4 Michigan (14-1, 4-1) at Washington (10-6, 2-3)
Date & Time: Wednesday, Jan. 14, 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA
TV/Streaming: BTN
Last season’s game against Washington coincidentally came right after that LA swing, with the Wolverines leading nearly the whole way in a 91-75 win in Ann Arbor. Four of the five starters scored double-digits, as well as Sam Walters (!!) who hit three triples. That loss pushed the Huskies to 1-5 in conference play; they would end 4-16, miss the Big Ten Tournament, and finish outside the Kenpom top 100.
Two Stats to Watch
Washington B1G Adj. Defense: 119.6 (16th)
There is improvement on both sides of the ball for the Huskies this season, with the offense and defense rising from outside the top 100 last year to top 60 now. Unsurprisingly, Washington was near the very bottom of the conference in both regards a year ago, while to start off this campaign that is only half true. Though the offense has been a pleasant surprise, the defense has really struggled in conference play (and against High Majors in general), ranking just 16th.
Nearly every statistic comes in red for the Washington defense, aside from two-point shooting, which is right in the middle. Michigan still leads the conference in this area and needs to continue leaning on it, especially as the three-point shooting has really leveled off as of late. The Huskies have a couple 6-foot-11 options, but the Wolverines will hold the advantage in the paint over anyone and will be able to score.
The wild part of the loss on Saturday was that Michigan still put up 1.22 PPP. This is a tick up from the USC and Penn State contests, and the Wolverines need to continue showing that level of efficiency. Scoring 100 points a game was never going to be sustainable, but there is no reason why this offense should not keep thriving given its personnel and shot selection. Washington is not a team that should cause scoring issues.
Washington Offensive Rebounding: 35.7% (51st)
The Huskies are not elite rebounders, but are fifth in the Big Ten at 38.8 rebounds per game and have the fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate in conference play. The defensive glass has sneakily become a mediocre area for the Wolverines, sitting just ninth in defensive rebounding rate thus far. This certainly has more to do with style and effort given the numerous bigs on the floor, and second-chance points must be limited against lesser teams.
Washington is not a high-volume three-point team, so the risk is different than against the Badgers. Neither Hannes Steinbach nor Zoom Diallo, the two leading scorers, take a ton of shots from deep, so Michigan must protect the paint and clean up the glass. The Wolverines have feasted this season winning the shot efficiency battle, and this game sets up to be in their favor.
But really, this game is not about the stats. Michigan is obviously an elite team with elite talent, and even a late start on the West Coast amidst a slump is no excuse for anything other than big win. The circumstances are different, but that 2-4 stretch to close out last season is hard to forget; another falter on Wednesday night is going to sound some alarms.
