The Carolina Hurricanes wrap up their four-game road trip this afternoon in Buffalo. The Canes have earned points in five straight games and are looking to extend their lead atop the Eastern Conference.
The Sabres are last in the East and have struggled to find consistent play this season.
Buffalo put themselves in a hole to start the season with a three-game losing streak. The Sabres put together a seven-game points streak to get above the .500 mark by the beginning of November.
A four-game losing streak followed that, and once again, Buffalo is behind all the teams in the East. One of those losses during that skid was a 6-3 Carolina win in Raleigh.
The Sabres have won three of the last four and had an offensive explosion Friday night against Chicago. Buffalo won 9-3, matching the highest goal total in the NHL this season.
Today’s matinee features a clash of styles between Carolina’s structured system and Buffalo’s rush offense.
According to NHL Edge tracking data for the 2025-26 season, the Sabres rank in the top 15 league-wide for “Speed Bursts over 20 mph” and “22+ mph bursts.” This team speed is important to keep in mind when the Carolina defenders pinch at the blue line. The Canes must ensure they have the coverage to limit odd-man rushes.
All eyes are on Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson. These players lead the Sabres with 20 points each. Tuch fuels the rush offense while Thompson is the finisher.
If Tuch cheats high in the defensive zone and creates a gap, trailers like Thompson, Josh Doan, or JJ Peterka can fill the high slot. If a turnover is created, the Sabres are off to the races.
Thompson, Buffalo’s leading goal scorer, has to be the focus of Carolina’s defense. Thompson is on a five-game goal streak, and does it a few ways. He is fast, physical, and creates a lot of chances for himself and others. Thompson transitions the puck like a winger despite playing center. According to NHL Edge data, Thompson ranks in the 90th percentile for speed bursts over 20 mph this season.
Thompson ranks seventh in the NHL in shots, and a lot of those have come off the rush. Because he enters the zone with so much speed, Thompson often stops up or curls just inside the blue line at the top of the circles. He can also stretch the defense due to his success around the circles.
A massive contradiction defines the Sabres’ defense: they have the league’s best penalty kill, yet they are one of the worst teams at preventing goals at five-on-five.
Buffalo’s goaltenders have been their best penalty killers. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Alex Lyon, and Colten Ellis have combined for a .952 save percentage on the kill.
However, Buffalo has allowed 52 five-on-five goals this season, fourth worst in the league.
Buffalo ranks 21st in suppressing High-Danger Chances Against (HDCA), and the defensive heatmap shows that vulnerability in the mid-range slot.
Despite his offensive capabilities, captain Rasmus Dahlin has struggled on the defensive end. His Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) at five-on-five is at 44.7 percent, which is not what a team needs for a top-pair defenseman.
Dahlin, Owen Power, and Bowen Byram are elite skaters that aggressively close gaps. However, when they miss or get caught chasing, they leave the high slot wide open.
Look for the Hurricanes to work the puck low to high, and hopefully the forwards can slip behind the defense into that soft middle.
Carolina wins by turning the game into a half-court grind, pinning Buffalo deep, and pummeling the slot until the Sabres’ defense breaks down.
Sabres projected lineup
Josh Doan — Tage Thompson — Alex Tuch
Jason Zucker — Ryan McLeod — Jack Quinn
Isak Rosen — Tyson Kozak — Noah Ostlund
Jordan Greenway — Peyton Krebs — Beck Malenstyn
Mattias Samuelsson — Rasmus Dahlin
Bowen Byram — Conor Timmins
Jacob Bryson — Owen Power
Colten Ellis
Alex Lyon
Scratched: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Josh Dunne, Zach Metsa
Injured: Michael Kesselring (lower body), Jiri Kulich (blood clot), Zach Benson (lower body), Justin Danforth (lower body), Josh Norris (upper body)
Andrei Svechnikov was a major story last night on the NHL wire. Hockey Night in Canada reported that he was open to trade during his early-season struggles. Those rumors may have been overblown or just seen as posturing by his camp. Svech seems to be over the hump and will skate in his 500th NHL game today.
Pyotr Kochetkov was slated to start on Friday but did not feel well enough. Expect him between the pipes this afternoon.
Sebastian Aho had a goal and an assist in the first game between these teams this season. He has 31 points in 23 career games against Buffalo.
Hurricanes projected lineup
Andrei Svechnikov — Sebastian Aho — Seth Jarvis
Nikolaj Ehlers — Logan Stankoven — Jackson Blake
William Carrier — Jordan Staal — Jordan Martinook
Taylor Hall — Mark Jankowski — Eric Robinson
Shayne Gostisbehere — Sean Walker
K’Andre Miller — Jalen Chatfield
Mike Reilly — Joel Nystrom
Pyotr Kochetkov
Frederik Andersen
Scratched: Alexander Nikishin, Brandon Bussi
Injured: Jaccob Slavin (lower body), Charles Alexis Legault (hand), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (lower body)
Here’s how to check out the action:
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
TV: FanDuel Sports Network with Mike Maniscalco, play-by-play; Tripp Tracy, color analyst; Shane Willis, analyst; Hannah Yates, rinkside.
Radio: 99.9 The Fan FM
Line: ML: CAR -192; PL: CAR -1.5 +130
