The Orioles answered a lot of questions this offseason. The question marks surrounding the offense were addressed via the signing of Pete Alonso and the trade for Taylor Ward. Starting pitching was addressed with Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and the resigning of Zach Eflin. The bullpen added Ryan Helsley and brought back Andrew Kittredge.
But one gigantic question still hangs over the Orioles’ heads: Is Baltimore truly a contender in 2026?
After back-to-back playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, there was
plenty of hope that the 2025 Orioles would be contenders again. Instead, a mountain of injuries and failed offseason gambles doomed the O’s to a 16-win regression and a last-place finish.
The Orioles undoubtedly had a better offseason this year. However, questions surrounding pitching and a steadily growing pile of new injuries are still here to cast doubt over the Orioles’ playoff hopes.
FanGraphs currently gives the Orioles a 51.6% chance to play October baseball, sixth best among all AL teams but only 4th in a loaded AL East. FanDuel also gives the O’s the sixth-best odds to earn a postseason birth at -115, though the gap between them and the Red Sox (-170), Blue Jays (-172) and Yankees (-265) is perhaps seen as even bigger in the betting market.
The optimistic case for the Orioles’ chances at a Wildcard berth revolves largely around their offense. The additions of Alonso and Ward, and predictable positive regression from Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, could see this O’s team challenge for the MLB home run lead and title of best offense in the AL. And that’s before factoring in the potential growth of younger players like Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers.
The pessimists will point to the lack of top-end starters, injuries to Holliday, Basallo and Jordan Westburg and the gauntlet that is the AL East as reasons why Baltimore will miss the playoffs again. The rotation is deeper, but heavily reliant on healthy seasons from Bradish, Rogers and Baz to give Baltimore a prayer at keeping up with deep rotations in New York, Toronto and Boston.
The injuries are frustrating but perhaps surmountable. Holliday should be back sometime in April. Basallo will hopefully not be shelved for long after leaving yesterday’s game after an awkward play at the plate. Westburg’s UCL injury means he may miss the entire season, but a leap from Coby Mayo should mitigate that loss (at least offensively). And yet, having to deal with so many injuries before playing a single regular-season game could certainly dent the optimism around an Orioles return to the postseason.
Playing in the AL East is not as daunting as it once was, thanks to a reduced number of division games, but the O’s still face a challenging climb out of the basement of baseball’s toughest division. The flip side to the challenge of the AL East is that Baltimore will have plenty of opportunities to steal games from their biggest competitors in the Wild Card (or division) race.
Since the move to three Wild Card teams, the last Wild Card spot in the AL has averaged 87 wins. Most books have the Orioles over/under at 86 wins. By all accounts, this should be a team that can make the playoffs. But do they have enough juice to truly distinguish themselves as contenders? Let us hear your opinion in the comments below.
