Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight talents Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 18, 2026) inside Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, for UFC Oklahoma City.
It’s been 11 months since du Plessis was held down by Khamzat Chimaev for an unbearable 25 minutes, a defeat that exposed some real fundamental issues in du Plessis’ game. Is most of a year enough to close those gaps? “DDP” aims to answer in the affirmative by rebounding versus Kamaru Usman, one
of the most dominant wrestlers of the last decade. Of course, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is 39 years old and competing at Middleweight for just the second time, so there are questions surrounding Usman as well. Against one of the most physical men at 185 pounds, will Usman still be able to dictate his will and implement his takedowns like usual?
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Du Plessis vs. Usman Betting Odds
- Dricus du Plessis victory: -245
- Dricus du Plessis via TKO/KO/DQ: +230
- Dricus du Plessis via submission: +900
- Dricus du Plessis via decision: +180
- Kamaru Usman victory: +195
- Kamaru Usman via TKO/KO/DQ: +600
- Kamaru Usman via submission: +2200
- Kamaru Usman via decision: +420
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How du Plessis Wins
Du Plessis is undeniably effective and undeniably flawed. He has some really interesting technical abilities — like his front headlock offense, dextrous left leg, southpaw jab — despite his off-balance and sloppy attacks. It’s all held together by being a mountain of a man with a deep well of self-belief.
Aside from the Khamzat loss, “DDP” usually brings a great game plan to the cage as well.
Faced with a smaller 39 year old foe, the name of the game is damage. Sure, Usman has a heavy jab and great takedowns, but we saw against Joaquin Buckley that those tools diminish as the fight wears on even while winning. Unlike the Khamzat loss, du Plessis has to aggressively scramble when taken down and force Usman to expend energy.
On the feet, I would love to see du Plessis take a page from Leon Edwards’ book and really focus his kicks on the leg and body. In the third fight, “Rocky” really broke down Usman’s lead leg by kicking the inner thigh as he stepped forward, and du Plessis has the left kicking skill to do the same. If he’s kicking up and down the body and forcing hard wrestling scrambles, Usman will slow down and grow more hittable with time.
Against a gorilla like “Stillknocks,” that’s a problem.
How Usman Wins
Usman, at his peak, was one of the greatest physical talents in UFC history. Absurdly strong with an endless gas tank, Usman ground his opposition down into dust via relentless clinch work and takedowns. Later, he added a punishing jab to his arsenal and overall sharpened up his boxing, making for a more rounded approach to MMA.
Unfortunately, Usman’s limitless gas tank has declined over the years to a more human level, and moving up in weight is unlikely to help. Wrestling bigger men is exhausting, and Usman doesn’t have the same kind of submission prowess that Khamzat used to scare du Plessis into accepting bottom position.
As such, this bout will be a real test of Usman’s ability to contain du Plessis while managing his pace. Du Plessis has never been finished, so “The Nigerian Nightmare” should be planning for 25 minutes. Though wrestling will undoubtedly be part of Usman’s success, it actually comes back to the jab more than anything else. If Usman can snap du Plessis’ head back with the jab early and often, he has a much better shot at controlling — and limiting — exchanges.
A stiff jab can interrupt kicks and combinations before they start. It can allow Usman to more easily feint and circle off rather than exchange at all. The jab can also set up effortless takedown entries rather than hard-earned chained takedowns that draw at the energy reserves.
Effective use of the jab will make or break Usman’s odds at an upset.
Du Plessis vs. Usman Prediction
It’s not easy to face someone who’s superior at your best asset.
Though Usman’s wrestling was undeniably great in his heyday, it was the physicality that separated him from the rest. Like Merab Dvalishvili, he could exhaust and demoralize opponents through work rate alone. When Colby Covington matched him in those areas in their pair of title fights, Usman’s physical gifts extended further: he could hit damn hard too. In terms of power, output, and endurance, Usman is an absolute all-time great.
Usman is now trying his hand at Middleweight at 39 years of age. He’s willingly giving away some of his physical edge, and Father Time has taken another portion. He will not be stronger than du Plessis. His cardio is unlikely to hold up as well in the later rounds. This would have been a very difficult challenge for 34-year-old Usman, who even then was never particularly hard to hit.
In 2026, the outlook is grim. Usman has perhaps a round of success before the momentum shifts, and then “DDP” snowballs in his typically awkward, violent fashion.
