Today is the most important day.
That is the motto the Cyclones will need to adopt over the final stretch over the season, but I would argue they need to start now with their road bout against TCU. It is easy
to look ahead at the murderer’s row of the remaining schedule, including games against all five of the other currently ranked Big 12 teams, but the horned frogs can absolutely cause a stumble for Iowa State.
This also comes off a home win against Baylor that likely leaves a lot of room for improvement, with Iowa State waiting for the second half to truly pull it away, and having an absolutely dreadful final 90 seconds that had me pulling up the UNI versus Texas A&M collapse. While you have to appreciate every win to an extent, there was definitely room for improvement.
Milan Momcilovic is still on a historic pace, shooting a blistering 53.25% from beyond the arc. This would put him fifth in NCAA history according to sports reference, and just .04% behind Roosevelt Moore of Sam Houston in 1992-93. When witnessing greatness, it can be hard to realize exactly what you are watching. Let’s check some of the season bests for all time Iowa State shooters to put this season into perspective.
- Tyrus McGee 46.4%
- Dedric Willoughby 45.1%
- Matt Thomas 44.5%
- Scott Christopherson 44.1%
- Milan Momcilovic 53.25%
Please appreciate what you are watching.
One player that has stepped up in recent games is Nate Heise. He averaged under four points per game during the first seven conference games, but he has matched his point total through seven in just the last three. This has been instrumental in some blowout wins over Colorado and Kansas State as it will open up space in the middle if a defender always has to stay that much closer to him now that he is a valid threat. I don’t know what happens in February to spark this, but this revival also happened this time last year for the UNI transfer.
TCU is certainly one of the teams in the Big 12 conference. 7th in offense, 11th in defense, 9th in overall scoring margin, this squad has the perfect combination of being especially easy to overlook when you pair it with Iowa State hosting Kansas in their following game. This is the definition for a trap game.
TCU is led by a two man combo of Xavier Edmunds and David Punch. They are both averaging over 14 points per game during conference play, and they will be the key factors offensively if they want to overcome the 8th ranked defense in the country according to Kenpom. TCU currently ranks 15th in the conference in three pointers made per game, which in my opinion can be the biggest threat for an upset as a hot three point squad can beat anyone.
Iowa State has won the last six matchups, with the three games in Fort Worth all ending by a margin of three or less. TCU is currently ranked 54 in Kenpom and 53 in the NET, while Iowa State is ranked 6 and 5 in the respective rankings. ESPN currently has Iowa State at an 81% chance of winning and they are opening as 6.5 favorites.
What are the keys to victory for me? Here are my thoughts
- Open shots are the best shots. This may feel obvious, but the offense is most likely to stall out when they settle for difficult midrange jumpers with over twelve seconds remaining on the shot clock. Jefferson and Momcilovic may shoot at a higher rate than the majority of the country, but I’m sure that expected points per shot is still lower than open threes and shots at the rim.
- Maintain defensive pressure. Iowa State only forced nine Baylor turnovers, definitely a low figure for a defense that has made forcing turnovers a staple in its identity. Forcing those live ball turnovers is a part of the team’s overall rhythm, so making TCU uncomfortable and forcing bad passes are a must.
- Play all 40 minutes. Especially after an absolute classic went down last night, it is very easy to look ahead to Saturday. For TJ’s squad, that Kansas game should feel like years into the future, at least for now. TCU is still a very competent team who has wins over Florida and Wisconsin, and there is no reason why they can’t give Iowa State trouble if the Cyclones don’t give them their full attention.
Prediction: ISU 70 – TCU 62
