Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 7 game against the Las Vegas Raiders, every member of our contributor panel picked the Chiefs to win. Half of them expected a blowout — and as a group, they thought
Kansas City would win 33-18 . While that aggregate prediction also called for a blowout, it nonetheless carried 36 points of error from the 31-0 final. To their credit, two-thirds of our readers expected a blowout, too.
In Week 8, the Chiefs face the Washington Commanders for “Monday Night Football” on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 11.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
The entire trajectory of this game changed when Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels was ruled out for it. Daniels is a very good young quarterback who can make smart decisions, push the ball downfield and create explosive plays with his legs. Marcus Mariota will operate the quick game well, but he doesn’t have the willingness (or arm talent) to hurt the Chiefs downfield. To keep up with Kansas City, Washington will have to produce many methodical drives — and that seems unlikely to me.
On the other side, the Chiefs should easily put up at least 30 points. The Commanders have personnel issues at every level. They don’t have a deep pass rush, they’re poor covering the middle of the field at linebacker and they give up explosive passes downfield in man coverage. There will be plenty of opportunities for Kansas City to attack downfield, and I expect a great offensive performance by the Chiefs.
Chiefs 37, Commanders 20
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
After five weeks, the Commanders were 3-2, while the Chiefs were 2-3. On Monday, Washington will be trying to avoid racking up its third straight loss, while Kansas City will be trying for its third straight win. So each team is clearly at a crossroads. But right now, I won’t be picking against the Chiefs at the spot where these two paths meet.
Chiefs 30, Commanders 12
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
The only path for the Commanders to stay competitive against the Chiefs is to control time of possession and keep quarterback Patrick Mahomes (and the offense) on the sideline. That means running the ball effectively — something that will be difficult with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels sidelined and Marcus Mariota stepping in.
The Commanders’ running backs haven’t shown enough explosiveness to sustain drives — and in recent weeks, the Chiefs’ defense has been stout against the run. That trend should continue. Defensively, Washington doesn’t have the personnel to consistently slow down a Kansas City offense that has hit its stride over the past month.
Simply put, only the Chiefs can beat themselves. If Kansas City avoids penalties and self-inflicted mistakes, this game shouldn’t be close. Expect another efficient performance, with running back Isaiah Pacheco continuing to build momentum. Around 75 rushing yards — and a touchdown — feels realistic.
The Chiefs are beginning to look like a team determined not to let inferior opponents hang around.
Chiefs 31, Commanders 17
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
Before the season started, I had this game circled on the calendar. It was supposed to be Patrick Mahomes vs. Jayden Daniels. Now insert Marcus Mariota.
Both teams are clearly heading in different directions and I don’t see that changing Monday night. With Rashee Rice back, the Chiefs’ offense will only get better by the week. On the flip side, the Commanders’ defense has flaws across the board.
While Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel are returning, I don’t see that being enough.
Chiefs 34, Commanders 17
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
The Chiefs’ offense has been on a tear the last four weeks — and the return of Rashee Rice has made it even more potent. The Commanders’ defense is a worn-down unit that has given up 24.3 points (and 360 yards) per game. Kansas City’s offense is putting up over 26 points (and gaining 370 yards) in each matchup — and quarterback Patrick Mahomes could be on his way to another MVP season. With Jayden Daniels out, Washington will be struggling for points — so if the Chiefs can gain a solid lead early, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit should be able to feast.
Chiefs 33, Commanders 7
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
I spent the week with a bunch of colleagues who live in the D.C. area, and there is not a lot of faith among Washington fans that they have the ammunition to keep up with a healthy Kansas City team — especially now that Jayden Daniels is not playing. Washington received good news this week when receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel returned to practice, but I don’t see a world where a Marcus Mariota-led offense keeps pace with this explosive Kansas City unit.
One thing to keep an eye on is how the loss of defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott affects the Chiefs’ pass rush. Kansas City was already thin along the line — and although his production hasn’t been great this season, Norman-Lott’s presence allowed other players to take a breather on the sideline. It will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo manages snap counts along the line.
Chiefs 35, Washington 13
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
I am not going to overthink this one. The Commanders are starting a backup quarterback (who has not looked good in his last two appearances) against a Chiefs defense currently ranked third in expected points added (EPA) on passing plays at -0.19. Even with Mariota set to get some star power back at wide receiver, I don’t think a Monday night atmosphere at Arrowhead is the place to reverse his fortunes.
After giving up 44 points to the Cowboys last week, I am sure Washington’s defense will want to make a statement. But it’s an aging unit that has at least eight projected starters 28 or older — and has just lost its best pass rusher: Dorance Armstrong. I think a Kansas City offense running on all cylinders will find success.
The Commanders will likely be better suited to take advantage of garbage time than the Raiders were in the fourth quarter last week, leading to a final score that will look more respectable than the game actually turned out.
Chiefs 33, Commanders 20
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Commanders just got blown out by the Cowboys and are facing the Chiefs without their star quarterback and best pass rusher. The home team has put together a couple of great all-around performances in recent weeks. The offense is taking flight with the best group of receivers to take the field together in years. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy alone would be lighting up defenses, but the “supporting cast” is also better than we’ve seen in some time. In fact, the Chiefs have started to show a level of depth that should give us a lot of confidence in the marathon that is an NFL season.
I don’t see them being slowed down this week, as Mahomes continues on his current heater. This game shouldn’t be close — and a convincing win in prime time will remind (and irritate) the rest of the league with the current reality: Mahomes is the MVP — and this Kansas City team is scary good when it’s on its game. When this is true, matchups just don’t matter as much.
Chiefs 38, Commanders 20
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 34—16.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 5 | 2 | 0.7143 | 23.1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jared Sapp | 5 | 2 | 0.7143 | 25.4 |
| 3 | 5 | Rocky Magaña | 4 | 3 | 0.5714 | 23.4 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 4 | 3 | 0.5714 | 24.6 |
| 5 | 3 | John Dixon | 4 | 3 | 0.5714 | 25.7 |
| 6 | 6 | Mark Gunnels | 4 | 3 | 0.5714 | 26.6 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 4 | 3 | 0.5714 | 30.0 |
| 8 | 8 | Nate Christensen | 3 | 4 | 0.4286 | 25.7 |
In Week 7, Rocky Magaña’s call for a 35-10 Kansas City victory was the best prediction submitted, carrying 20 points of error. Maurice Elston’s 28-13 was the next closest, missing by 32 total points.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
