With roughly a week and a half to go in the season, all of the remaining questions about the Phillies come within the context of October. Who will they carry on the roster? Rotation? Bullpen? Lineup? All of it is thought about with one month in mind.
Since there is still a bit of time, it feels like the perfect moment to do the last minor league check-in of the season.
Andrew Painter’s season is over.
It was disappointing to see Andrew Painter not even make his major league debut or to see him have
the struggles he had in AAA. He carried an ERA well over 5 for the Iron Pigs, saw his fastball get crushed, and had to figure it all out along the way.
However, there were positives to this season, even if they weren’t the sexiest.
Painter made 26 starts across A-ball and AAA, pitched 118 innings, and most importantly, ended the season healthy. There is nothing spectacular about that but it was important coming off Tommy John surgery. He should be ready to make 30 starts next season wherever they are.
A second positive to Painter’s season is that his changeup looked really good in limited usage. He threw it mainly to left-handed hitters but it generated a 54.9% whiff rate while not allowing much hard contact. His arsenal lacked a pitch that could fade away to left-handed hitters before this season. Now there is a chance it’s his second best offering.
The third and final positive is that he picked up a sinker late into the season. He continues the Phillies’ trend of having starters throw multiple fastballs. He did not throw it much for the season but it could be a helpful offering down the line.
Before anyone hits the panic button on Painter, it is fair to mention that he warrants plenty of excuses. He was coming off major elbow surgery that sidelined him for two years, had massive expectations set on him, and had never pitched in AAA before.
It is also fair to mention that development isn’t linear, especially for pitchers. The Phillies just saw this with Mick Abel, who looked like a complete afterthought after 2024 but then came back to make his major league debut this season.
Painter’s major league outlook should still be the same. Without making any moves, the Phillies will bring back Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker, and eventually Zack Wheeler. It’s not the biggest issue in the world if Painter still needs some time.
However, you want to see major progress next season. He will have a full off-season without any rehabbing to get ready for 2026. Even if he doesn’t make the club right away, you would like for him to be ready whenever they need him.
Aidan Miller’s last two months
The first four months of Aidan Miller’s season weren’t super concerning but he tempered expectations set on him last season and in spring training. He looked like a player who was very young for AA and needed time. His strikeout rate went up and saw a decrease in power.
There were plenty of good things he did in that time, however. He stole 52 bases in AA, completely changing his potential as a baserunner, and he took a step forward as a shortstop.
Then August happened. Miller hit .348 with a 1.083 OPS in 22 games with Reading, then carried that into the beginning of September. He earned a late-season promotion to AAA where he hasn’t slowed down.
Miller’s jump doesn’t make him a serious candidate to earn a major league spot to begin next season, but it’s becoming harder and harder to sleep on. He will go to the AFL and it’s hard not to envision a Bryson Stott-like leap into opening day contention.
However, without making any moves, the Phillies can bring back their entire infield. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are locked in to massive contracts, Bryson Stott still has plenty of team control, and Alec Bohm is a free agent after 2026. They don’t have to make major decisions on any of the backups either.
So if Miller doesn’t live up to massive expectations to begin 2026, there is zero reason for concern.
Here is an unwarranted major league comparison: he doesn’t have nearly the same barrel control but there are some Alex Bregman-lite aspects to Miller’s game.
Miller’s swing percentages in the minor league, minus one small AA sample size last year:
2023 Complex league: 45%
2023 A-ball: 38.0%
2024 A-ball: 40.3%
2024 A+ ball: 41.9%
2025 AA: 39.4%
2025 AAA: 39.4%
These are extremely similar to Bregman’s career numbers. We don’t have plenty of minor league data on chase rate or zone-swing rate to go further with this comparison but his low-sample AAA numbers look similar too.
Miller, like Bregman, is very good at using the entire field but pulls plenty of pull-side flyballs. It doesn’t hurt that Bregman was also a converted shortstop when he got to the major leagues.
This is like a 100th percent outcome for Miller, but still fun to make regardless. Miller won’t be nearly as good a hitter but he does carry a baserunning ceiling that Bregman never had. It’s just a thought.
