The Ravens are traveling to Atlanta next Sunday night, so tonight’s matchup between the Falcons and the Saints is a perfect opportunity for some early advance scouting. Here’s what I’ll be watching on Monday Night Football:
Is Michael Penix really back?
Michael Penix did not just have a solid 2026 debut against the Packers last week. He had one of the better performances of his young NFL career, averaging +0.24 EPA/dropback on his way to a 35-14 win. The Falcons’ offensive line is healthy, and their run game is absolutely humming
(more on that later).
But Penix’s individual play has been a rollercoaster over the last few years. Can he keep it up against a Ravens defense that, for all of their faults recently, has still played well against subpar quarterbacks.
I just don’t know if Penix still belongs in that group. The Saints’ pass defense has been efficient this year, though they did hold the Ravens to just 233 yards through the air in Week 2. Tonight will be a solid test for his prospects against Baltimore next week.
How is the Falcons run defense this good?
The Falcons have absolutely demolished opposing rushing offenses so far this season. They have allowed just 47.7 yards per game, 2.8 yards per attempt, and two explosive rushes, all league-bests, along with a 21.2% stuff rate and -0.22 EPA/rush that rank among the NFL’s top three defenses. This is a wholesale reversal from last year’s bottom-10 unit.
The reasons for the improvements are not fully clear. Kevin Stefanski retained defensive coordintor Jeff Ulbrich when he arrived in Atlanta this offseason, and the team did not heavily invest in their front-seven personnel. Acquiring Gervon Dexter Sr. from the Bears certainly upgraded the offensive line, but he has not been a dominant run defender to start his career.
The Ravens will need to lean on their run game if Lamar Jackson (ankle) is sidelined next week. But their offensive line injures could put them at a significant disadvantage. Dwayne Ledford needs to be watching his former team closely tonight for any weaknesses he can exploit next week.
Will Bijan Robinson force Jesse Minter to play more base defense?
Jesse Minter’s defensive philosophy is built around stopping the run out of nickel (and even dime) personnel. In order to keep at least five defensive backs on the field as often as possible to slow opposing passing games, he relies on his safeties and linebackers to step up in run support.
So far, the results have been mixed. The Ravens’ -0.09 EPA/rush allowed is the sixth-best mark in the league, but they rank eighth-worst with +0.55 rush yards over expected/attempt. That may not cut it against a Falcons offense that is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, -0.01 EPA/rush, and +0.70 RYOE/attempt, all among the best numbers in the NFL. Bijan Robinson has been a force of nature behind Ledford’s former offensive line, and Stefanski’s diverse run scheme has given opposing defensie nightmares.
Atlanta will try to bully the Ravens out of their nickel/dime looks, so Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will need to study tonight’s game to get their run defense on point for next Sunday night.
All advanced metrics via Next Gen Stats.
