There’s a very special matchup on Monday Night Football, as the Atlanta Falcons travel to take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. This is a heated rivalry between two teams that truly seem to loathe each other, and things only get more intense when both teams are in the thick of the NFC South race. That’s the case as we reach the start of October, as the Falcons and Saints both sit at 1-2 with an opportunity to take at least a share of the lead on Monday night.
While the Falcons started out playing
abysmal football with third-string quarterback Cooper Rush, they looked like a completely different offense with Michael Penix Jr. against the Green Bay Packers in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Saints have played pretty great offensive football, but dropped two games thanks to inconsistency and turnovers. FanDuel currently has Atlanta as 2.5-point road underdogs, showing how close this game is projected to be.
This is a tough game to get a read on for a number of reasons. For one, we only have a one-game sample size of Atlanta with a real quarterback in 2026. Not exactly much to base opinions on, although the fact that it was a great game certainly bodes well. New Orleans also can’t seem to play a consistent game, as their 1-2 record and massive point swings from quarter to quarter suggest. There’s also the matter of a pretty large injury report for the Saints, who could be down multiple major contributors on Monday night.
Falcons vs Saints Week 4 predictions
There are a few reasons why I’m bullish on the Falcons to win this game. For one, Atlanta already took down Tyler Shough and a very similar Saints team twice in 2025—and I’d argue that the 2025 Falcons were not as well coached as this year’s iteration. The Falcons defense found ways to stymie Shough and the passing game, and that will be critical once again in this matchup.
Second, Atlanta has been downright dominant in primetime. The Falcons are 8-3 on all primetime games going back through the 2024 season, and they’ve been particularly good on Monday Night Football. Atlanta is 4-0 on MNF since 2024, including two away games. If you take it back even further to 2015, the Falcons are a startling 9-1 (including a road win against the Saints in 2016). This team plays its best football under the bright lights, and I’d expect that to continue this week.
Getting to the game itself, the Falcons match up well with the Saints in a number of key areas. Even though the passing game is coming along with Penix at the helm, the is still a team that wants to run the ball as much as possible with Bijan Robinson. Atlanta is second in rushing yards and seventh in yards per carry, and they did all that with no passing game to speak of in the first two weeks. Meanwhile, the Saints are a poor run defense, ranking 27th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in yards per carry allowed. This could be a recipe for disaster, particularly with a banged up front seven in New Orleans.
On the other side, the Saints are very inconsistent running the football. New Orleans is league average in rushing yardage, but 21st in yards per carry at just 3.8. The Falcons hold the league’s best run defense, allowing the fewest rushing yards, yards per carry, and zero rushing TDs allowed. The Saints also just lost major free agent addition Travis Etienne Jr. to IR, putting everything on the plate of an aging Alvin Kamara. I wouldn’t rule out Kamara having one last big game against Atlanta, but it’s a very tough matchup. The Saints might be forced into a very one-dimensional game script on offense, which could lead to futher issues.
Those issues start with the offensive line, which lost left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. for the season last week. The Raiders took advantage of his replacement, Asim Richards, particularly late in the game. Atlanta somehow possesses one of the league’s best pass rushes, and could feast on an undermanned Saints line—particularly if the run game is nonexistent. This is a key matchup for both sides: the Saints have thrived throwing the ball with Tyler Shough, and Atlanta is a bit undermanned in the secondary. There could be big play opportunities for New Orleans if they can protect the QB, but that might be a difficult task.
I do expect New Orleans to put up quite a fight, but I think the culmination of injuries and a one-dimensional offense ultimately lead to more turnovers for Tyler Shough and the Saints offense. The Falcons manage to steal a hard-fought divisional matchup on Monday Night Football, thanks to dominance from Bijan Robinson and some clutch plays by the defense. I’m predicting the Falcons to emerge victorious, 27-24.
Rise up with Falcons fans on the SB Nation app!
Follow every big play and talk through every game-day moment with fans who care just as much as you do.
- Chat live with Falcons fans during each game
- Browse with fewer ads
- Easily move between communities and conversations
- Enjoy faster commenting and posting
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
