The current odds show Brad Underwood’s hardcourt warriors as a +450 (18%) chance to win the B1G men’s basketball tournament. Michigan is the favorite at -125 to win. (Michigan State is at +625, and Purdue is at +725) The Illini is a +1,100 to +1,800 (5%-9%) to take home the NCAA title.
The reasons are many; you can point to KenPom, which has Illinois ranked No. 5 in the nation, No. 1 in offense, and No. 26 in defense. They have taken a tumble in RPI, where they are 16th, BUT they are No. 5 in the NCAA
NET rankings. They are ranked 9th in both the AP and the coaches’ polls. Many analysts have listed Illinois from a dark horse to a legitimate threat in the NCAA Tournament. They have a lineup where five guys average double figures in scoring, and they are No. 7 in rebounding percentage. They have the Freshman of the Year in the Big Ten in Keaton Wagler. Much is made of Illinois’ size, length, defense, passing, and 3-point shooting.
But there is one thing many overlook.
DEPTH
Only a few mention depth, but it is the Illini depth that could be the X-factor in just how far the Illini can go rests on the bench.
Now, realistically, the Illini only go eight deep with Zvonimir Ivisic (Big Z), Ben Humrichous, and Jake Davis/Andrej Stojakovic (depending on who starts). But with the versatility of the starting five, it actually seems deeper than it is.
This versatility reminds me of the 1989 Flying Illini with Steve Bardo, Kenny Battle, Kendall Gill, Lowell Hamilton, Nick Anderson, Ervin Small, Marcus Liberty, and Larry Smith. Almost completely interchangeable, and each one brought a high level of talent. It is the same with this current team; you can rotate Wagler, Stojakovic, and Boswell at the point. Mirkovic, Boswell, and Wagler at the shooting guard, Wagler, Mirkovic, Humrichous, and Davis can play the shooting forward. Humrichous, Mirkovic, and even the twins can play the big forward.
THE BENCH
Big Z, coming off the bench at 7-foot-2 and 250 pounds, is not just some reserve off the bench, averaging 17.7 minutes per game but leading the team in blocks with 66, averaging one block every 8.3 minutes. He is not just a defensive figure in the paint. He can score on the block or step out on a ball-screen. He can either spell his brother or be in at the same time, giving the Illini a true “twin” towers effect. For a player of his size, he runs the floor very well and is very active around the rim.
Humrichous (who started 26 games last season) has become the three-point specialist, hitting 53% from the arc in his last five games, including 5-of-10 vs. UCLA. He is also hitting the boards, averaging 4.1 rebounds while playing only 22 minutes a game. He also has a very good court awareness, which pays dividends in the pass-style offense that Illinois employs. Coach Underwood has also praised him for his defensive improvement. At 6-foot-9, he can defend big guards and shooting forwards on the perimeter or inside vs. power forwards.
Jake Davis, who has also started 16 games this season, has become a go-to three-point kickout option that teams have to keep an eye on (shooting at a 48% clip in his last five games). He runs the floor well, passes well, and plays with a tenacity and toughness that reminds me of Lucas Johnson. He has increased his defensive intensity compared to last season. He is also a veteran floor leader for the younger guys.
Two others, Mihailo Petrovic and Brandon Lee, have contributed more than just garbage time minutes. While neither is considered first guard off the bench, Underwood has used them in the late first halves of games. Both are suspect on defense, but Underwood has shown he is not shy about using them when the opportunity presents itself.
In the Big Ten Tournament and the upcoming NCAAs, to make a long run, the bench will be a key factor. It may not be deep, but Underwood has shown a knack for putting the right players in the right positions.
Who do you think is the most pivotal player off of the bench? Would like to hear your thoughts.
