I’ll pause to explain the sub-headline, in case you weren’t watching the national broadcast. The national broadcasters got caught up in being clever. They were drawing a line from Matthew Boyd to Matt(hew)
Shaw to Matt (Michael) Busch. Never let reality get in the way of what feels like a really clever idea in your head. As usual, I write this being on a similar journey to yours. I watched the game and I have an impression, but as I sit here, it’s possible those are my three stars. I have to go back and look at the boxscore. I think there is one other decent option. But I was just amused as the search for a clever headline that doesn’t exist.
Aside from national broadcast eye roll worthy stuff, I sat watching this game thinking about the context of today in the NL Wild Card race. We can’t know what exactly will transpire over the next 36 hours, but imagine this. You are the Padres. You woke up today having taken the first two games in the series from the Brewers. The Cubs have lost five straight. You suspect they aren’t going to just lose out. But they also don’t have to lose all of the games. The lead is down to 1.5 games. If you can beat the Brewers in the afternoon, the lead will be down to one and the Cubs would need to win four of five to be able to lock your team out.
The Padres loaded the bases, down one, in the seventh, but didn’t push the tying run across. The Brewers got a homer in the ninth and then held on for the win. Lead back up to two games. Then the Cubs jump all over the Mets and go on to a 10-3 win. The lead is back up to 2.5 games. But don’t stop the imagining. This is the way sports can flip flop. This is the fun of it. Particularly if you are savoring the good and pushing away the bad. The Padres are off Thursday. This is where we can’t know what is next. They had a chance to get it to one and leave the magic number for the Cubs at four. Instead, they lost. The Cubs won. The Cubs now play twice more before the Padres see the field again. The Cubs play the Mets Thursday evening and then Friday afternoon against the Cardinals.
There is a scenario where the Padres are eliminated from the top spot before they ever take the field again. Sure, a week ago, this spot probably didn’t seem available to them. But once you get a sniff of it, you want to get across the finish line. They are a talented and experienced team. They aren’t going to curl up and die. They’ll come to Wrigley next week, assuming that ultimately is the scenario, expecting to upset the Cubs and continue their journey. They are too good not to. Certainly their front office wants those valuable home games. But beyond that, you want to face a tough challenge in your facilities. With your fans. Going home to your bed at night. It matters. How much? It’s hard to quantify. But anyone who tells you that they don’t care where the games is played is being at least a little disingenuous.
These storylines are playing out all over baseball. I like each extra wild card less than the one before it. I am old school and liked the small playoffs. I’ve paid much less attention to postseasons as I’ve gotten older, other than those that the Cubs have been involved in. That said, I’d be lying if I said that this isn’t working terrifically for MLB teams and the league itself. More teams are alive later into the season.
I commented on a social media post tonight. Someone was pointing out that heading into this game the Cubs were only 15-15 in their last 30. But over that time a number of other contenders have losing records. I think I’m as myopic focusing on the Cubs as anyone. But I do see the context for the Cub struggles in the second half. Detroit might be on the wrong end of the largest standings change in the shortest amount of time in baseball history. The Diamondbacks are alive. The Marlins have won eight of 10, the Braves 10 of 11.
There are these stories all over the place. The lesser teams didn’t just quit playing competitive baseball. Teams like the Reds, Guardians, Diamondbacks and Marlins have refused to see the book close on there playoff chances. The Braves were pretty much out of contention in May, but have fought for pride all year long. There are a small handful of really bad teams. Everyone else is still playing hard. There’s exciting baseball well into September all across baseball.
If you are an independent baseball fan, this is one of the more enjoyable baseball seasons in the modern era. You’ve got four players now with 50+ homers. A couple of very legitimate division races into the last week of the season. You had 18 teams go into the last week of the season with a mathematical shot at the playoffs. Again, ignoring the dregs of the league, all 18 of those top teams had something to play for. No division title has been won in the AL and only two in the NL. As I write, only eight of the 12 playoff spots have been nailed down. No top seeds have been secured.
This is a smashing success for baseball. Real baseball down to the last days. Let’s get down to the numbers.
Pitch Counts:
- Mets: 141, 38 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 136, 33 BF
The Mets at 17.625 pitches per inning are well into the yellow zone, but not the red zone of disaster. Similar to the Cub pitching in the previous game, a little striking just how much trouble the Mets got into without really running off the rails. The Cubs turned 11 hits and three walks into 10 runs. That’s a really strong performance and sees the broken record of bad sequencing flipped over to good sequencing. Building off of a 4-11 with RISP Tuesday night, the Cubs were 6-12 Wednesday night. They only left four on base. This is just a superlative offensive performance, aided by a wild pitch and an error (and actually derailed initially by an outfield assist).
For Cub pitchers, 15.11 just sneaks into the yellow zone. That came out of the Matthew Boyd portion of the game. He struggled just a couple of times to put innings away. But ultimately, he just missed a quality start by two outs. Everyone ought to get ready for a postseason that will see Cub starters throw 18 batters or less unless they are really dominating. The road map is going to be to go hard for 75-85 pitches and turn it over to the pen to get it home. There are going to be two huge keys to the postseason. One is how much the bats can contribute, because it covers a lot of ills when the offense runs. The other is how good the coaching staff is at pulling the right levers with the bullpen.
Bullpen usage mattered. The Mets rode their bullpen hard Tuesday and in the pregame, they did suggest that all four relievers that threw 25+ pitches on Tuesday would be unavailable. They used four more relievers after their starter only completed two innings. They had another reliever throw 31 in this and one throw 24. Again, these guys are going to say they are good to go. The Mets are in a trick bag. You can’t gas your bullpen, but they are the one NL team that hasn’t clinched their spot, so you can’t go home keeping gas in the tank.
For the Cubs, Daniel Palencia essentially threw a rehab outing, getting two outs mid-game. I only saw a few pitches, but thought he looked good. Aaron Civale has been useful in his limited time with the Cubs. He did allow a run, but made sure no one else had to throw in this one. This might be his last appearance of the regular season. Or we see him Sunday. But this was a perfect use for him. He threw only 40 pitches. If he were a typical multi-inning reliever, I’d expect him to potentially be available Saturday. But I know the staff is super mindful that he’s never been a reliever.
Three Stars: (plus one)
- I don’t often list a starter up here who doesn’t finish six. The Cubs needed this start for myriad reasons. Matthew Boyd was excellent while the Cubs were putting this one away. He did eventually give back two and then couldn’t finish six. But after Horton’s short outing and with his injury concerns, this start was a big lift.
- Matt Shaw had three hits, one of them a homer. He scored three times and stole a base. He played solid D and was generally a thorn in the side of the Mets.
- Michael Busch had a double, a homer, a walk, two runs, two runs driven in. Emerging as one of the most under rated players in baseball. Somewhere between a top 5 and top 10 first baseman in baseball and yet overlooked.
- Moisés Ballesteros had a pair of singles and a walk. Scored twice and drove in a run. Just missed another RBI on the tag play at the plate. He maybe could have had another RBI on the play he got his RBI too. Ian Happ stopped at third and it appeared that the Mets had no interest on throwing home had he gone. Went first to third on a Seiya Suzuki double that wasn’t a clear two base play and then scored on a sac fly that wasn’t particularly deep either. Another thorn in the Mets side.
Game 158, September 24: Cubs 10, Mets 3 (89-69)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.151). 5.1 IP, 20 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, 3 K, HBP (W 14-8)
- Hero: Michael Busch (.124). 2-4, HR, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.106). 1-4, BB, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.046). 0-4
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.020). 1-4
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.007). 1-4, RBI
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ doubled with the bases loaded and no outs in the third inning, driving in the first two runs of the game. (.131)
*Mets Play of the Game: After the first two batters of the came, Jonah Tong won a duel with Ian Happ after a long at bat and struck him out. (.052)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Results: Nico Hoerner received 112 of 134 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Michael Busch +18.17
- Cade Horton +18
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -22.33
- Carson Kelly -26
- Seiya Suzuki -29
With the games being meaningful down to the wire, we haven’t talked much about the Rizzo. I went out onto the largest limb on the tree and predicted Kyle Tucker to win this year’s award. I’m almost certainly going to be right, but in no way the way I imagined. His injury down the stretch kept him from backing out of it and no one got hot to catch him. Taillon will probably throw over the weekend. But even if he gets the Superhero, he’d need Tucker to lose 4 or more points. Not impossible. That’s the only obvious scenario. Busch could get four straight Superheroes in the last four games. That would be fun to watch, but that some Bonds level stuff and probably isn’t realistic. Especially if the Cubs see a lefty and he has a day off from starting.
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs have clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer actively monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other team that matters in any way at this point is the Padres. Padres (WC 2) lose (Cubs up 2.5). The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 2. The Cubs can still clinch by winning two of their last four and any losses by the Padres nudge that forward too.
The Mets lose but get a break when the Reds lose. The Marlins and Cardinals also lose. I’m not savvy on all of the permutations, but both of those last two teams will be eliminated sooner or later as they both already have 81 losses. The Mets have 81 wins and four games to play. They’ll surely win at least one, right? The DBacks is another story. They were involved in a late extra-inning game Wednesday night.
Up Next: A slightly unusual Thursday night game for the Cubs at home on getaway day for the Mets. The Mets leave for Florida to play the Marlins after the game. I’m sure they don’t love that the game is at night, especially as a team clinging to the last spot. Every little edge matters and having to travel, get in late and then get up for a season-ending series is rough.
Shōta Imanaga (9-7, 3.37, 139 IP) takes one last shot at a 10th win. It feels like a bad year, but a 0.96 WHIP suggests that the 3.37 ERA is no fluke. Of course, he gets there in part by walking very few batters. The downfall has been the long ball. 29 of them across 24 starts isn’t great. He’s 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in September. He and the team need him to bounce back.
The Mets look to 24-year-old rookie Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.27, 42.2 IP) to win this series and the season series with the Cubs. The righty was the third round pick for the Mets in 2023 (91st overall). He’s 1-1 with a 1.61 ERA in September, but note that he won his first four MLB starts and is 0-1 in three starts since. He’s been terrific for them. He’s gotten up into the 90 pitch range in all seven starts. He walked four in his MLB debut (while striking out eight). Since then, he has 38 strikeouts against 10 walks (37.1 IP). Those are impressive numbers.
Find a way. Win again and position yourself for clinching the top wild card spot before Sunday’s game (they’d still need one more win or Padre loss). The Cubs are lined up for Horton to start Game 1, Boyd Game 2 and Imanaga Game 3. I think that’s right.
