The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s top 16 reveal shook up a few of the projected seeding decisions from prior weeks, although most teams largely remained in the same ballpark. No team in particular stole the show in the B1G this week, but there were buzzer-beaters, big upsets, and more in seemingly every West Coast game, creating a hectic late-February week.
Michigan – No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 1 Seed (No. 1 overall)
The Wolverines had a very tough schedule this week, taking on both No. 7 Purdue and No. 3
Duke away from home. Michigan was able to go into Mackey Arena and win 91-80 to move to 15-1 in conference play. The Wolverines couldn’t cap off a 2-0 week, falling 68-63 to Duke in Washington, D.C., shortly after being named as the No. 1 overall seed. Ironically, Michigan’s resume is still better than Duke’s (the Wolverines rank first in NET, KenPom, WAB, T-Rank, SOR, and KPI, and only trail the Blue Devils in BPI rankings). But Duke’s head-to-head win still gives the Blue Devils the inside track to the No. 1 overall seed moving forward.
Illinois – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
The Fighting Illini’s explosive offense traveled with them across the country to the West Coast, but the defense only held up in one of the two games against USC and UCLA. Illinois destroyed USC 101-65 to open up the week, but couldn’t make it a 2-0 trip to the West Coast as it fell 95-94 in overtime to UCLA. The loss didn’t affect Illinois from a bracketology perspective at all, as many of the teams ahead of the Illini lost at some point this week as well, and a one-point overtime road loss in a Quad 1 game has little to no impact on metrics this late in the season.
Purdue – No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Purdue lost 91-80 to Michigan at home to open the week. The Boilermakers couldn’t defend Michigan’s shooting from beyond the three-point line, and that resulted in their third loss at Mackey Arena this season, something that hasn’t happened since Purdue went 11-5 at home in the 2019-20 season. The Boilermakers took their anger out on in-state rival Indiana later in the week, destroying the Hoosiers 93-64 at home. Purdue appeared in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s top 16 reveal as the No. 8 overall seed (a No. 2 seed), and that projection held over the rest of the weekend.
Nebraska – No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
The Cornhuskers were completely stymied on the road against Iowa on Tuesday, scoring a season-low 52 points in a 57-52 loss in Iowa City. Nebraska quickly rebounded by demolishing Penn State 87-64 at home behind Pryce Sandfort’s career-high 33-point scoring output. Despite the loss to Iowa, the Cornhuskers still appeared in the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s top 16 reveal as a No. 3 seed (No. 11 overall), albeit with minimal separation from the No. 4 seeds and not too many opportunities to significantly improve their resume going forward.
Michigan State – No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 15 overall)
The Spartans had lost three of their last four games heading into the week, presenting them with two important opportunities to get back on track at home. Michigan State was able to capitalize on those opportunities by getting two wins on the board. The Spartans comfortably beat UCLA 82-59 before mounting a small second-half comeback to defeat Ohio State 66-60 over the weekend. Michigan State will now prepare for a big clash against Purdue on the road, where a win could give the Spartans a bump to the No. 2 seed line. For now, the Selection Committee had Michigan State as a No. 4 seed, and that projection remains accurate.
Wisconsin – No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
The Badgers continued to live and die by the three throughout the week, and it resulted in two very different games. Wisconsin shot just 7-for-26 (27%) from three in a 17-point loss to Ohio State, but shot 10-for-24 (42%) from three in a 13-point win against Iowa. It’s clear what the Badgers’ gameplan is, although Wisconsin has been executing at a very high level in recent weeks. The Badgers continue to loom as a dangerous No. 7 or 8 seed. Wisconsin will face both Oregon and Washington on the road this week in two must-win games.
Iowa – No. 8 Seed (No. 30 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 9 Seed (No. 33 overall)
The Hawkeyes faced two ranked opponents this week, and in those two big opportunities, Iowa was able to come out with one win. The Hawkeyes beat Nebraska 57-52 at home, giving them just their second Quad 1A win of the season. Iowa wasn’t as successful on the road, though, falling 84-71 to Wisconsin. All things considered, a 1-1 week against that schedule is a very good result, although the Hawkeyes will have to wait until March for their next two ranked opponents (Michigan and a rematch with Nebraska on the road). Iowa needs to win both games against Ohio State and Penn State this week to try to get back onto the No. 7 seed line.
Indiana – No. 10 Seed (No. 39 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall, Last Four Byes)
The Hoosiers had a big opportunity to improve their resume this weekend as they took on arch-rival Purdue. Unfortunately, going to Mackey Arena immediately following a home loss is a very tall task, and one that Indiana was unable to handle. The Hoosiers were completely outmatched, falling 93-64 at the hands of the Boilermakers. Indiana will now start a stretch of three straight home games, and it’s essential that the Hoosiers win at least two of the three games to stay comfortable in the NCAA Tournament picture.
UCLA – No. 10 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
At this point, everyone in the college basketball world heard about UCLA in the context of what Mick Cronin said after playing against Michigan State, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Bruins are squarely on the bubble and the results of their games still matter a ton. UCLA’s 82-59 loss was a disappointing setback for its tournament hopes, but the Bruins found a way to bounce back at home. UCLA’s 95-94 overtime upset of Illinois, capped off by Donovan Dent’s buzzer-beater layup, put the Bruins back on the right side of the bubble after falling just on the outside of the tournament picture following the loss to the Spartans.
Ohio State – No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Ohio State has clearly been playing better since losing to Michigan by 21 at home a few weeks back, but the stretch of seemingly improved play has only resulted in a 2-2 record. This week, the Buckeyes easily dispatched the Badgers, beating Wisconsin 86-69 at home. The Badgers are just on the wrong side of the NET top 30, however, so that still left Ohio State without a Quad 1 win. The Buckeyes had one more chance to change that stat over the weekend, but squandered a 26-23 lead at the half, eventually losing 66-60 to Michigan State on the road.
USC – First Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 42 overall, Last Four In)
The Trojans were in a solid position within the NCAA Tournament bubble heading into the week, but USC tumbled out of the projected field with a 0-2 week at home. The Trojans suffered an embarrassing 101-65 loss to Illinois, and things only got worse from there when they fell 71-70 to Oregon at home. While the margin of the first loss was a bad omen, the second loss of the week was USC’s second Quad 3 loss of the season – something that bubble teams can ill-afford to have on their resume.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Huskies just haven’t done themselves any favors this season. While the ridiculously tough schedule to open conference play certainly hindered Washington from gaining momentum, the second half of the season has featured a bunch of losses in very winnable games. This week was no different, as the Huskies fell 64-60 to Maryland, dipping below a .500 overall record this season in the process.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Golden Gophers inched closer to the .500 mark for the season with two wins against teams at the bottom of the conference standings. Minnesota beat Oregon 61-44 on the road, then returned home and secured an 80-61 win against Rutgers. The Golden Gophers will look to play spoiler twice this week in games against Michigan and UCLA.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Wildcats had one game this week, and they were able to play well enough to secure a 78-74 victory against Maryland, powered by Nick Martinelli’s 29-point game. Northwestern will move on to face Indiana on the road tomorrow and will return home to play Oregon this weekend.
Oregon – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Ducks might have had the weirdest week of any team in the conference. Against Minnesota, Oregon shot 2-for-20 from the three-point line and scored just 44 total points in a 17-point loss. The Ducks completely flipped a switch over the weekend, utilizing a 7-0 run to seal a comeback victory against USC after trailing 70-64. Oregon will have another opportunity to play spoiler this week when it takes on Wisconsin at home.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Nittany Lions were on the wrong side of two blowouts this week. Penn State fell 85-72 to Rutgers at home in a somewhat surprising loss before going on the road to take on Nebraska. The Nittany Lions couldn’t keep that game within striking distance, losing 87-64 to the Cornhuskers. Penn State will have most of the week off before facing Iowa at home this weekend.
Maryland – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Terrapins have started to play much better basketball in February, and that trend continued this week. Maryland lost 78-74 to Northwestern on the road, but Andre Mills’ 39-point outing was another bright spot for the Terrapins despite the loss. The ‘Terps rebounded over the weekend by defeating Washington 64-60 at home.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Scarlet Knights had a topsy-turvy week. Rutgers secured an 85-72 victory against Penn State on the road in its mid-week game, but then fell 80-61 on the road against Minnesota over the weekend. The Scarlet Knights will return home to face Washington before taking on Maryland on the road.
