The 2026 NFL schedule release is expected sometime in May, but we already know the 17 opponents for the Detroit Lions. Based on a repeating formula, the Lions’ nine home opponents and eight road opponents have already been determined. And based on that, strength of schedule can be calculated before the official schedule even drops.
The most common way to view strength of schedule is using last year’s record of each opponent. Based on that, the Lions are projected to have the sixth-easiest schedule—their
opponents averaging a .467 winning percentage last year.
However, after years of data collecting, studies have shown that last year’s record of opponent has not been a very good measure of predicting strength of schedule. That’s why Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has starting using a different measure for strength of schedule: over/under win totals set by Vegas sportsbooks—or the projected wins for each team based on Vegas odds.
Based on that data, the Lions’ 2026 schedule actually turns out to be easiest in the league.
And that’s just the beginning of the good news for Lions fans. Because if you look at the rest of the NFC North, the Lions are far ahead of them all. The Vikings have the next easiest schedule at 16th, the Packers are right behind them at 17th, and the Bears are actually set to have the sixth-hardest schedule in the NFL.
This, of course, is exactly how the NFL schedule is designed to play out. The Bears finished first in the division last year, so they must face a first-place schedule—meaning three of their 2026 opponents (Eagles, Jaguars, Seahawks) are also division-winners from 2025. The Lions, on the other hand, finished last in the NFC North last year, so a three-game portion of their schedule is filled with teams that finished last in their division (Giants, Titans, Cardinals).
Of course, no method is fool-proof when determining strength of schedule, because there are so many unknowns at this point in the offseason. Even Sharp’s methods can turn out to be very inaccurate for Detroit. Just last year, the Lions’ schedule was projected to be third-toughest schedule in football. It turned out to be the 21st toughest.
So, in short, take all of this with a grain of salt.
