This will be the final bracket projection of 2026 that is not based on whatever guidance the Selection Committee provides during Saturday’s Bracket Preview special. As usual, I will be tremendously interested in what they’re valuing the most this season, particularly as this week’s results have led to a change on the top line that you might think is a bit controversial. After losing to a disappointing Creighton squad in Storrs, UConn dropped down to the 2 line. The Huskies’ replacement as the final No.
1 seed is Houston, which might seem counterintuitive based on the Cougars’ loss at Iowa State on Monday. However, the Cyclones’ overall profile and metrics were still a bit behind the other three 2 seeds, thanks to a weaker record away from Ames and more Quad 3 and 4 wins.
The only other shift at the top of the bracket sees Kansas and Texas Tech swap places on lines 3 and 4 after the Red Raiders lost at Arizona State after losing JT Toppin for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. How Grant McCasland’s team responds over the coming weeks will dictate how the 3, 4, and 5 seed lines eventually shake out.
There is just one new at-large team, Missouri, who held on for dear life against Vanderbilt in Columbia on Wednesday night. The Tigers replace TCU. Both teams have strong wins, including over top No. 3 seed Florida, but the Horned Frogs’ variety of losses is much worse than Mizzou’s.
Your weekend/Monday TV preview follows today’s full bracket.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
▼(16) Merrimack (MAAC)
▼(8) Clemson
(9) Texas
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
▼(4) Texas Tech
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) NC State
(11) Ohio State
(3) Florida (SEC)
(14) Austin Peay (ASUN)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) Saint Louis (A 10)
(10) Indiana
(2) Iowa State
▼(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Houston
★(16) Southeast Missouri (OVC)
▼(8) Wisconsin
(9) SMU
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Alabama
(12) South Florida (AC)
(4) Michigan State
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▼(7) North Carolina
▼(10) Auburn
(2) Purdue
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
(2) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
★/—(16) UMBC (AE)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
▼(8) Kentucky
(9) UCF
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Louisville
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) High Point (Big South)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) St. John’s (Big East)
(11) Santa Clara/USC
▲(3) Kansas
▼(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Villanova
▼(10) Texas A&M
(2) Illinois
★(15) Troy (Sun Belt)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) LIU (NEC)/Howard (MEAC)
(8) Miami (Fla.)
▲(9) Saint Mary’s
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Virginia
★(13) Cal Baptist (WAC)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) Utah State (MW)
—/★(11) UCLA/Missouri
(3) Nebraska
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Iowa
(10) Georgia
▼(2) UConn
(15) Navy (Patriot)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Texas A&M, Indiana, Auburn, Ohio State
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, USC, UCLA, Missouri
First Four OUT: TCU, New Mexico, California, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Seton Hall, West Virginia, VCU
On Deck: Stanford, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Nevada
ARRIVALS (5): Cal Baptist (WAC), Missouri, Southeast Missouri (OVC), Troy (Sun Belt), UMBC (AE)
DEPARTURES: App State (Sun Belt), NJIT (AE), TCU, UT Martin (OVC), Utah Tech (WAC)
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (11): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, USC (First Four), UCLA (First Four)
SEC (11): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Auburn, Missouri (First Four)
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, Miami (Fla.), SMU
Big 12 (7): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
25 one-bid conferences
Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Friday
(10) Indiana at (2) Purdue, 8 (Fox)
(OUT) VCU at (7) Saint Louis, 7 (ESPN2)
Bowling Green at (11) Miami (Ohio), 8:30 (CBSSN)
(OUT) Akron at Ball State, 6:30 (CBSSN)
Siena at (15) Merrimack, 8 (ESPNU)
There are some sneaky interesting games on tonight’s slate. The Hoosiers will be looking to grab a marquee win in West Lafayette, but the Boilermakers will likely be angry after Michigan ran them out of Mackey on Tuesday. In the Atlantic 10, with the Billikens’ Wednesday night loss at Rhode Island, their home game against VCU will be for the conference lead. The Rams, who are aiming for a repeat NCAA appearance for the first time since Will Wade’s tw0-season tenure (2016 and 2017), lost by nine to SLU in Richmond. VCU hasn’t earned an at-large since 2021, when the Rams didn’t even get to play, thanks to COVID issues. They’ll need to win tonight to keep those hopes alive.
In the MAC, the undefeated RedHawks face a Falcon team that is on-paper their most difficult remaining regular-season challenge. Miami leads Akron, who heads to Muncie to play the Cardinals, by a game in the league race. However, a 76-73 home win over the Zips gives Travis Steele’s team the edge for the top seed in Cleveland if their 26-game win streak ends between now and Selection Week.
Saturday
Creighton at (6) St. John’s, 12 (Fox)
(3) Florida at Mississippi, 12 (ESPN)
(7) North Carolina at Syracuse, 1 (ABC)
Cincinnati at (3) Kansas, 1 (CBS)
Florida State at (8) Clemson, 12 (CW)
Wake Forest at (OUT) Virginia Tech, 12 (ACCN)
Georgia Southern at App State, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
Marshall at Coastal Carolina, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
UAlbany at (16) UMBC, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
Creighton has already beaten one of the Big East’s big dogs this week. But can the Jays weather the Red Storm and jump back into the at-large conversation?
Elsewhere, keep an eye on Florida State, who has won six of its last eight, against a Clemson squad smarting from a midweek home loss to Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, conference races are starting to wind down in the leagues that have early tournaments, and the Sun Belt and America East standings are among the messiest in the country gith now.
(1) Arizona at (1) Houston, 3 (ABC)
(5) Tennessee at (4) Vanderbilt, 2 (ESPN)
(8) Miami (Fla.) at (4) Virginia, 2 (ESPN2)
Penn State at (3) Nebraska, 2 (BTN)
Kansas State at (4) Texas Tech, 2:30 (Fox)
Georgia Tech at (5) Louisville, 2:15 (CW)
San José State at (OUT) Boise State, 2 (MWN)
Xavier at Butler, 1:30 (TNT/TruTV)
Penn at (12) Yale, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Utah Valley at UT Arlington, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Kansas City at (13) North Dakota State, 2 (Summit League Network ($))
(15) Navy at Army West Point, 1:30 (CBSSN)
(16) LIU at Mercyhurst, 2 (NEC Front Row)
SIUE at Tennessee State, 2 (ESPNU)
Unusually, we have not just one, but two matchups of projected No. 1 seeds today. First up, N0. 3 overall Arizona visits No. 4 overall Houston for the pair’s lone regular-season meeting. The Wildcats are more likely to stick on the top line with a loss than the Cougars, and there’s a strong chance both teams stick around if Houston defends the Fertitta Center.
The remainder of the drama in the 2 Eastern window focuses on the 3-5 seed range with a head-to-head SEC showdown at Memorial Gym, Virginia hosting a rising Miami squad, a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech squad meeting a K-State club that has an interim coach, and Louisville hosting the worst Georgia Tech team of my lifetime.
In the “mess is best” category, the OVC race jumps into the fray with SIUE heading to Nashville.
(11) Missouri at (5) Arkansas, 4 (ESPN)
(9) Texas at (10) Georgia, 3:30 (SECN)
Boston College at (9) SMU, 4 (ACCN)
Oregon at (11) USC, 4 (FS1)
(OUT) West Virginia at (OUT) TCU, 5 (Peacock ($))
(OUT) Oklahoma State at Colorado, 3:30 (TNT/TruTV)
Winthrop at (13) High Point, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Western Kentucky at (12) Liberty, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) UNCW at Campbell, 4 (FloHoops ($))
(14) ETSU at UNCG, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Eastern Washington at (14) Portland State, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Troy at South Alabama, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Utah Tech at Tarleton, 5 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Southeast Missouri at Little Rock, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Morehead State at Western Illinois, 4:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Another potential 4/5 seed, Arkansas hosts the last team in, Mizzou, with the Razorbacks likely smarting from their epic double-OT loss to Alabama on Wednesday night. There are also two crucial bubble matchups in Athens and Fort Worth. Both the Longhorns and Bulldogs have consolidated their positions of late, but the Horned Frogs’ midweek loss at UCF and West Virginia’s home loss to a bad Utah team make their showdown a must-win for both.
Among the mid-majors, more Sun Belt and OVC contenders are in action, but the most important game is in the Big South. It’s a potential conference title preview in High Point, as the Panthers will look to reverse a 92-75 loss they took in South Carolina on January 14th. Both teams have a single conference loss, but HPU has the auto bid at the moment by virtue of having played one more game.
(1) Duke vs. (1) Michigan (at Washington, D.C.), 6:30 (ESPN)
(2) UConn at (7) Villanova, 5:30 (TNT/TruTV)
(5) Alabama at LSU, 6 (SECN)
(OUT) Stanford at (OUT) California, 6 (ACCN)
(OUT) San Diego State at Colorado State, 6 (CBSSN)
Georgetown at (OUT) Seton Hall, 6 (FS1)
Temple at Wichita State, 6 (ESPN2)
Nicholls at (13) Stephen F. Austin, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) Austin Peay at Jacksonville, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Vermont at NJIT, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Alabama A&M at (16) Bethune-Cookman, 5:30 (SWAC TV)
The second showdown of 1 seeds takes place in the Nation’s Capital with the winner between the Blue Devils and Wolverines likely to be No. 1 overall in Tuesday’s updated. At least there isn’t a conference lead up for grabs too! In the window’s two other marquee games, the Huskies head to Philadelphia looking to rebound from a terrible performance at home on Wednesday against a Wildcat squad that’s trying to get out of the 7/8 seed range, while the Golden Bears need to beat their archrivals to stay in the “First Four Out” group at a minimum.
The America East’s two other regular-season title contenders meet in Newark too.
(2) Illinois at (11) UCLA, 8 (Fox)
(8) Kentucky at (10) Auburn, 8;30 (ESPN)
(10) Texas A&M at Oklahoma, 8:30 (SECN)
(10) UCF at Utah, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Pacific at (3) Gonzaga, 9 (KHQ/ESPN+ ($))
(OUT) New Mexico at Fresno State, 8 (CBSSN)
Wyoming at (OUT) Grand Canyon, 8 (MWN)
Indiana State at (12) Belmont, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at McNeese, 8 (ESPNU)
Both the Bruins and Tigers need home wins badly, which will be easier said than done for Mick Cronin’s club, given how the wheels have started to fall off in Westwood.
(2) Iowa State at (6) BYU, 10:30 (ESPN)
(10) Saint Mary’s at Washington State, 10 (ESPN2)
(11) Santa Clara at San Francisco, 10 (CBSSN)
UC Santa Barbara at Hawai’i, 1o (ESPNU)
UC San Diego at (14) UC Irvine, 10 (Spectrum Sportsnet/ESPN+ ($))
The Cyclones will have a great opportunity to bolster their top seed credentials by winning in Provo. The Cougars have only beaten one at-large candidate, TCU, (sorry, Baylor) since their epic comeback win over Clemson in the Jimmy V Classic on December 9th.
Sunday
(7) Iowa at (8) Wisconsin, 4 (FS1)
(11) Ohio State at (4) Michigan State, 1 (CBS)
UTSA at (OUT) Tulsa, 4 (ESPN News)
Robert Morris at (14) Wright State, 2 (ESPNU)
Iona at (15) Merrimack, 1 (ESPN+ ($))
The Badgers slid down to the 8 line following Tuesday’s loss to the Buckeyes, while the Hawkeyes replaced them after defeating Nebraska on Wednesday. Speaking of tOSU, they head to East Lansing aiming to solidify their place.
Keep an eye on that RMU-Wright State game, as the defending Horizon champs have won their last four, a span that started by beating the Raiders in Moon Township, Pa.
Monday
(1) Houston at (3) Kansas, 9 (ESPN)
(5) Louisville at (7) North Carolina, 7 (ESPN)
New Orleans at (13) Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
UTRGV at McNeese, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Big Monday really will feel like Big Monday this week with a crucial game in the race for a quarterfinal bye in the ACC Tournament leading into the lone regular-season meeting of the Cougars and Jayhawks.
My next full update will come on Tuesday, but I will probably have a quick recap of the Selection Committee’s top 16 tomorrow.
