When the Los Angeles Rams drafted Ty Simpson on Thursday, one of the criticisms of the pick was that “next year’s quarterback class is better” with an expectation that players like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Brendan Sorsby, Julian Sayin, C.J. Carr, LaNorris and others will headline a 2027 draft for the ages.
However, this was also used as a reason not to draft quarterbacks in 2025 when Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart were the only first round picks because “next year’s class will be so much better”, which
not coincidentally also included Manning and Sellers.
Field Yates, who I think got the job as ESPN’s lead draft analyst by filling out an online application, mocked six quarterbacks in the top-16 of his “way too early” 2026 mock draft from last year:
Yates had Manning and Sellers going 1-2, Cade Klubnik going third, Sam Leavitt going ninth, Drew Allar going 11th, and Garrett Nussmeier going 16th.
What really happened?
Well, Manning fanatics (Manatics?) insist that he was always going to return to school in 2026, which is a really easy claim to make after Arch had such a disappointing debut season as Texas’s starter. This hasn’t deterred analysts from once again projecting Arch Manning as the first overall pick in next year’s draft.
Sellers was projected as a top-3 quarterback in the 2026 class but also opted to return to school, which probably wasn’t that hard of a decision given that his touchdown total fell from an already-low 18 to 13. In two years as South Carolina’s starter, Sellers has only thrown 596 pass attempts and his stats are extremely underwhelming for a “projected first round pick”. If Sellers had the season people were expecting a year ago, going back to college in 2026 feels like an absurd claim.
- Klubnik went to the Jets in the 4th round
- Leavitt hurt his foot, played poorly for Arizona State, and transferred to LSU this year
- Allar was drafted by the Steelers in the 3rd round
- Nussmeier was drafted by the Chiefs in the 7th round
So out of Field Yates’s six projected top-16 picks at the QB position, three did not enter the draft and three were drafted between rounds 3-7.
That’s it.
A mock draft at CBS Sports was only marginally more accurate because it included Fernando Mendoza.
A 2026 mock draft by Ryan Wilson last June predicted 5 first round quarterbacks, not including Arch Manning:
- Garrett Nussmeier went 1st overall
- Drew Allar went 8th
- Fernando Mendoza went 18th
- Cade Klubnik went 27th (to the Rams)
- LaNorris Sellers went 32nd
So out of these five first round quarterbacks, one went first (which is a pretty impressive guess by Wilson given how mediocre Mendoza was at Cal) and the other five I already mentioned. He would have had Arch at number one if he didn’t think he was going back to Texas in 2026.
It’s not like it was only a few people who felt that the 2026 QB class was “too good not to wait for” either.
Right before training camp, ESPN’s Matt Miller projected Klubnik as the first pick:
“Klubnik enters the season as my No. 1 QB. In 2024, he threw for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns and six interceptions, highlighted by a gutsy performance against Texas in the College Football Playoff (336 passing yards, three TDs, one INT). Klubnik reminds me of Baker Mayfield — whom Cleveland selected with the No. 1 pick in 2018 — in terms of arm strength, mobility and playmaking awareness.“
And Nussmeier as the 12th pick:
“Nussmeier showed flashes in his first season as a starter, throwing for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, Garrett plays with fire and energy and isn’t afraid to take chances. If he cuts down on his interceptions, Nussmeier has the velocity, accuracy and playmaking ability to move up draft boards.”
These turned out to be day three picks. Nussmeier is barely in the NFL. Even if you think that’s partly related to injury (and that’s an excuse, let’s be honest) it’s still due to something. That’s all that matters.
For Allar, Miller’s suggestion that “His development in 2024, in which he increased his completion percentage from 59.9% to 66.5%, is encouraging and suggests that more improvement is on the way.” proved not to be true. He regressed, a lot, he did not improve.
The premise that the Rams should not have drafted Ty Simpson MIGHT hold water, but it has nothing to do with “wait until next year”.
This isn’t new
Go back another year and look at 2025 mock drafts from 2024:
Bleacher Report’s “way too early” 2025 mock draft had:
- Carson Beck going 1st overall
- Shedeur Sanders going 4th overall
- Jalen Milroe going 7th overall
- Will Howard going 21st overall
Beck didn’t enter the draft because he wasn’t good enough. He transferred to Miami and this year he was drafted in the third round by the Cardinals.
Sanders was a fifth round pick. Milroe was a third round pick. Howard was a sixth round pick.
Miller had Beck and Sanders going 1/2 for ESPN, plus Quinn Ewers going 10th, Conner Weigmen going 19th, and Riley Leonard going 20th.
Ewers was a seventh round pick. Leonard was a sixth round pick. Weigman transferred to Houston and he’s still there now. He didn’t enter the 2025 or 2026 drafts. Again, 2025 is a class that had Ward going 1st and Dart going 25th and neither was projected as a first round pick despite analysts projecting seven different names here in only these two mocks.
Ewers was also projected by some as a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL “way-too-early” mock drafts from 2023, indicating that just because Manning, Moore, and Sellers went back to school for more seasoning that does not mean that they will get better.
There are more examples of quarterbacks who decided to forego the NFL Draft and tanked their stock than there are examples of “projected first round picks” who went back to school and got better.
If you can guarantee that 2027 is a great quarterback class, you are a liar or a fool.
Does that make Simpson a good pick?
One thing does not have to do with the other.
The Rams say that they drafted Ty Simpson because among other reasons they do not expect to have a good pick in 2027. They don’t think they will be able to trade for a high pick or have a bad season in 2026, so even if Manning, Moore, or someone else hits the draft with a high ceiling next year, the best L.A. thinks they could do is just another quarterback who is about as intriguing as Simpson.
And that’s fine.
But for all the people out there who are saying Simpson was a bad pick because the 2027 draft class exists, that’s just a stupid reason. The 2027 draft class does NOT exist yet and the names you’re hearing now have proven — over and over again — that they could disappear tomorrow.
